Designing E-Business Systems ... Prediction Markets as an Aggregation Mechanism for Collective Intelligence. Prediction market. People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.[1] History[edit] Prediction markets have a long and colorful lineage.
Betting on elections was common in the U.S. until at least the 1940s, with formal markets existing on Wall Street in the months leading up to the race. Newspapers reported market conditions to give a sense of the closeness of the contest in this period prior to widespread polling. Around 1990 at Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market. In July 2003, the U.S. The research literature is collected together in the peer reviewed The Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by the University of Buckingham Press. Welcome LogicaFuturescope.
Idea Futures Prediction Market | Download Idea Futures Prediction Market software for free. Foresight Exchange. Prediction Markets. Document Not Found. Nostradamical Opens Its Prediction Market. Outlook Hazy. We all love to prove that we’ve been granted the gift of foresight, either through our wealth of knowledge or more fantastical means, like The Force. In the last year or so major websites have been trying to capitalize on this by introducing “prediction markets”, which allow readers to make guesses about upcoming events ranging from hot news items to celebrity gossip, and also generally significantly increase page views and engagement. Today sees the public launch of a new prediction site called Nostradamical (named after the well-known seer) which is emphasizing the social nature of making predictions.
Users initiate predictions in articles similar to brief blog pots, where they can include videos, photos, and text describing why they think something will happen and why it is important. Nostradamical has a fairly attractive and intuitive interface, and some users may enjoy the emphasis on community. Nostradamical.com - Predict, Publish, Play.
Www.spigit.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/PredictionMarketUseCases.pdf. Internet Research | Collective intelligence for idea management with Internet-based information aggregation markets. Betting system. Open Prediction Markets | Free Open Source Prediction Market Software. Zocalo Prediction Markets | Download Zocalo Prediction Markets software for free. CSI - Università di Napoli - Una piattaforma Open Source a supporto dell'intelligenza collettiva (Prediction market) a disposizione degli studenti della Federico II - Versione stampabile. Prediction Markets - Inkling. How to use Inkling Prediction Markets for your business - Forecasting.
Intermediary Platforms Research & Development platforms Innocentive – open innovation problem solvingIdeaConnection – idea marketplace and problem solvingYet2.com – IP market placePRESANS (beta) – connect and solve R&D problemsHypios – online problem solvingInnoget – research intermediary platformOne Billion Minds – online (social) challengesNineSigma – technology problem solvingIdeaken – collaborative crowdsourcingInnovation-community.de – Community of innovators & creators. Marketing, Design & Idea platforms Collective Intelligence & Prediction platforms Lumenogic – collective intelligence marketsUshahidi – crowdsourcing crisis informationKaggle – data mining and forecastingWe Are Hunted – the online music chartGoogle Image Labeler – crowdsourced image labeling HR & Freelancers platforms TopCoder – competition-based software crowdsourcingSpudaroo – crowdsourcing copywritingClickworker – small online task solvingAmazon Mechanical Turk – low-cost crowdsourcing Open innovation software 478Shares.
Foresight Prediction Markets Platform - Solutions - Consensus Point. The Huunu Research platform is designed for research organizations and MROC’s to provide a simple and engaging way to tap into the knowledge of respondents and communities. Quickly and easily identify the best ideas and concepts: Increase the speed with which your organization selects ideas and determine which concepts are most desired by the marketSignificantly reduce your concept and ideation research costsTest more concepts with clearer differentiation among ideasObtain more accurate answers with less effortOffer a more engaging tool for respondents than traditional research methods Huunu is proven to accelerate your time to market and to lower your total cost of research.
Huunu enables companies to quickly arrive at a “consensus” and determine which ideas and concepts are going to be winners in the market. Get the answers in a few days as opposed to a few weeks at a fraction of the cost of traditional research. What is it used for? Is it Accurate? Yes! Want to see more? How Motorola Uses Prediction Markets to Choose Innovations CIO. CIO — the project: Deploy a prediction market to aggregate new business ideas suggested by Motorola employees and assess their viability. A prediction market is a system for forecasting the outcome of projects or events based on how willing individuals are to buy "stock" in them. Users buy shares to vote items up. Each item is evaluated based on how much it is "worth:" The higher the value, the more popular the idea. the business case: Motorola sought to allow any employee the opportunity to propose ideas for new products, upgrades to current products, productivity improvements or cycle-time reductions, says Rami Levy, distinguished member of Motorola's technical staff and a member of its open-source technology team, which manages the prediction markets for the company.
In 2003, Motorola had built a system to collect ideas, called ThinkTank. First steps: Levy and his team worked with a variety of director-level managers, including senior VPs, to secure buy-in for the project. Bookmaker. Enables your users to place a bet on virtually anything; you decide which bets you offer. After the outcome of the bet offer is published, the module automatically calculates the amount of points each user gets. Node based, integrates well with Drupal A bet is constructed as a node, so you can use all node-related goodies such as comments, URL path setting, authoring information, revisions, or taxonomy.Secure code The module is carefully designed to avoid possible XSS attacks or SQL injections.Fully themeable The looks of bets will fit into your website theme without further tweaking.True cross database support Every SQL statement conforms to the Core SQL-99 standard.
Therefore, this module is compatible with every database that supports that standard, including (but not limited to) MySQL and PostgreSQL.