StockTwits® - Share Investing Ideas and Learn from Professional Investors. When stocks go down, what goes up? Jim Cramer used to do a segment on his show called, "Am I diversified? " where he invited callers to tell him their portfolios and he would bless them (or not) as being diversified. The gist of the segment was that he wanted them to have stocks in different sectors, different market caps, etc - in the theory that a "diversified" portfolio would smooth out the overall performance. To which I'd want to ask, "And how'd that work out for ya in the last bear market? " As it is now probably readily apparent to most everyone, the stock market (be it small, mid, large, foreign, or domestic) is highly correlated and will generally rise or fall in unison. The best way to be diversified, or to simply own stocks that "zig when the market zags" - is to own stocks that have a negative correlation with each other.
Although this sounds straight-forward, seemingly no one in the public eye can get this right. First, you need two tools: It is noteworthy to point out: Green Stocks Central. Suze Orman Resources. Justifiable Optimism Shapes 2010 Outlook - Forbes.com. I even may forgive Santa Claus, that flabby patron saint of department stores, who did me dirt in my Pincus-the-peddler childhood caper, hawking cat balloons outside Macy’s. (See “To Hell With Santa Claus.”) There’s so much bubbling beneath the surface of financial markets that over-focusing on monthly economic indicators misses the big picture of synchronic growth throughout the world. My pivotal leading indicator on unemployment and employment stats was the increase in part-time workers, positive these past several months.
It kept me bullish. The Fed won’t get in the way of a bull market. Then, the final washout of inventories plus a better selling rate for cars gets us to normalized GDP of 3.5% for the first half of 2010. I expect positive employment numbers next month or in January and each succeeding month next year. The “scrapage rate” in the country runs at less than 5% per annum, a new low. Currently, the personal savings rate stands above 4%. Did you buy BIDU @ $80? Martin T. The Year Ahead - Forbes.com. Nine Tech Stocks with Good Cash Utilization and Return on Equity - Not all investors would be looking at capital appreciation as the only way to judge a stock's quality.
As the 2008-09 economic downturn has proved that stock values could decline much below fair values despite companies having strong fundamentals, stocks which offer good short-term returns (through regular dividends) and long-term appreciation (not necessarily the best-in-class but above industry peers) will always be attractive investments. I used the following parameters in the Gridstone Screener to screen the entire Technology stock universe and arrive at the top stocks that can be considered for investor portfolios with the above investment objective in mind: 1.
Dividend Payouts and Operating Asset Acquisition Ratio [DPOAAR]: This was defined as =(TTM Dividends payouts+ Acquisition of businesses,net)/TTM EBITDA). 2. The best way to judge whether deploying cash as described above has yielded results is to check both operating income growth and Return On Equity (ROE). 3. New! Beneficiaries of the Vibrant Chip Industry - With or without connection to good results posted by Blackberry-maker Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), chip stocks of all types are enjoying strong momentum this month.
It is happening because the sector's food chain is healthy all along. End products mainly telephones, computers, and LCD televisions are getting snatched up by consumers during the holiday season, and that means that fabless chip developers are getting larger orders from the gadget makers. The foundries that actually produce the chips for the fabless chip firms are increasing orders for the equipment used to produce chips, because the production at many of those firms is running at near full capacity following a drastic cut in investment during the crisis. We heard this yesterday from Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. Along with Nova, I recently noted the stock of Camtek Ltd. Today, I am adding Camtek to the portfolio. Is this author on the ball?
Follow and be the first to know when they publish. Follow Shlomi Cohen. The Gold Debate: Here's Why You Should Be Wary - One of the hottest topics for investors is the question of gold. Should you invest? If so, how? Background We are not negative about gold. As usual, I go where I am led by the data. Consider the following: We have frequently owned and endorsed gold shares via GDX as part of our TCA-ETF trading system.We recommended gold holdings to our clients in the years before we launched this blog in 2003-04.We specifically suggested some gold stocks in February 2007.
So we are open to gold. A client asked about gold in February, 2007. The general concept worked, even though the price target for gold was way off. The Marketing Push But I am now angry! Receive future articles by this author via email: Follow and be the first to know when they publish. Follow Jeff Miller (14,955 followers) Value, growth, bonds (You’ll be notified by email with new articles from your favorite authors.) New! Follow these related stocks (Click to add stocks to your portfolio) Share this article with a colleague.
Gold Investors: Stay Nervous - In recent weeks, we've seen some of the Fool's best and brightest take potshots at gold. My former editor Joe Magyer told you that dividend-paying stocks are way better, and Amanda Kish suggested that we're in the early stages of a bubble. I, too, am more than a little concerned about investors' growing enthusiasm for the yellow metal. I bring a pretty different perspective from my peers, however, being that a Canadian-listed gold exploration outfit is the biggest position in my highly concentrated stock portfolio. Any gold skepticism on my part is hardly a case of sour grapes. Let me explain why I'm not tickled by each $10 uptick. $2,000 gold is for chumps As discussed in my search for America's next top gold mine, Fronteer Development Group (AMEX: FRG) and its joint venture partner (the one I own) have what looks like a very attractive gold project at Long Canyon, in northeastern Nevada.
. $2,000 gold would shake the fleas off of any dog of a gold project. Follow Toby Shute (655 followers) Top Ten Equity ETFs of 2009: Emerging Markets Rule the Day - After watching their portfolios take devastating blows in 2008, many investors hoped that a new year would bring a reversal of fortune and a recovery of lost assets. After the first two months of the year tested resolve, things finally took a turn for the better in March, and a long climb upwards began. Most equity ETFs experienced solid gains in 2009, adding more than 20% on the year. But as always, some fared better than others, with several funds outpacing broad-based benchmarks by a considerable margin.
And then there are the handful of ETFs highlighted below that delivered enormous gains. These funds have each gained at least 85% this year, putting them in the top two percent of all equity ETFs in our ETF Screener. It should be noted that only funds operating for all of 2009 have been included in this list (although we did bend this rule a bit for one fund with particularly stellar results). 10. 9. iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund (TUR) Is this author on the ball? The Ten Worst ETFs of 2009 -
For most investors, 2009 has been a very good year, with a surge in liquidity leading almost all asset classes to big gains. As many national economies emerged from recession, investors regained their appetite for risk, sending emerging markets funds through the roof (these funds dominated the list of the Top Ten Performing Equity ETFs). But less risky asset classes also jumped in 2009, and the vast majority of exchange-traded products are heading towards the finish line well in the black on the year. But some funds have not been nearly so fortunate. Although this year has been one of the best in recent memory for most investors, several ETFs missed out on the surge and instead posted big losses.
Beyond inverse and leveraged ETFs, the ten worst performing ETFs of 2009 include: 10. PowerShares 1-30 Treasury Ladder (PLW) As risk tolerance has returned to the markets this year, many safe havens that performed relatively well in 2008 have seen declines in value. 8. Follow Michael Johnston. Best and Worst ETFs of 2009: Coal Dominates Natural Gas - By Jeremy Glaser Originally published on 12/10/09 It was a wild year in the market, and the ETF space was no exception. As we look to the best investment ideas for 2010, it is worthwhile to look back and see what succeeded, and what didn't in 2009. One quick note, we've excluded leveraged and inverse ETFs from this discussion, because most are structured to provide the advertised returns over a one-day period, which means comparisons over longer periods aren't meaningful.
The best performing funds of 2009 were primarily ones that were hit the hardest during the market downturn. Emerging markets also performed well in the year with funds tracking Latin America, Russia, Turkey, India and China all landing in the top 15 performers. click to enlarge After such a blistering market rally, it is almost a challenge to find non-leveraged or inverse ETFs that have posted negative returns in the year. Do you trust this author to give you good analysis?
Follow and be the first to know when they publish. VTV: Buying Value for 2010 - By Brandon Clay Investors are constantly labeled and grouped into certain camps. Bull or bear. Fundamental or technical. And of course value or growth. One battle that always seems to be raging is value vs. growth. With that in mind, we decided to take a look at an ETF that is well-suited to the value investing school of thought: the aptly named Vanguard Value ETF (VTV).
If investors decide they’ve had enough of the high-beta, riskier stocks that drove the recent rally, value funds like VTV should benefit in a big way. That’s not a cause for concern because VTV is full of other quality names like oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), consumer titan Procter & Gamble (PG), and health care bellwether Merck (MRK). The bottom line is investors need not be pigeonholed by old Wall Street labels. Disclosure covering writer, editor, publisher, and affiliates: Long AAPL. Do you trust this author to give you good analysis? Follow and be the first to know when they publish. (160 followers) Personal Loans and Online Investing | Peer-to-Peer Lending. Where to Get Commodity Exposure via ETFs in 2010 - By Jeremy Glaser Originally published on 12/10/09 After a roller-coaster decade of returns in traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds, many investors have started looking to alternative assets, like commodities, to help round out portfolios.
Of course, adding commodities to an asset allocation strategy is no silver bullet. Buying natural gas futures doesn't give you a stake in the cash flow of a business like stocks or the steady income stream from bonds. And the correlation between commodities (particularly oil) and the broader economic cycle seems to be rising. Still, commodities can make sense as a small part (~5%) of a portfolio. So how should investors who are looking to gain some exposure in 2010 go about it? Many investors believe that when buying a product like United States Oil (USO), they are gaining access to the day-to-day fluctuations of the spot price (price for delivery of oil that day). Do you trust this author to give you good analysis? Follow Morningstar. Currency ETFs to Watch in Early 2010 - Just when it seemed that the U.S. dollar couldn’t get a break, along came Dubai World’s debt struggles.
In four brief weeks, the U.S. dollar has rocketed 4.5% and climbed above a 50-day trendline. Over the last month, investors worldwide have been persuading themselves that the U.S. dollar is the lesser of god-awful alternatives. Yet the longer-term realities are daunting. Consider: (1) Gold has risen 25%+ in 2009 due to demand by governments like India; governments that have decided to increase the percentage of gold in their reserves. In part, this is due to expectations of the dollar’s longer-term declines. (2) China has issued yuan-denominated debt in Hong Kong, and increasingly talks about an alternative world currency. . (3) The U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio is 10%… record-breaking in its ”out-of-control-ness.” What does it all mean? Of course, there are other ways to profit from near-term U.S. dollar strength. Want more from this author? Follow and be the first to know when they publish.
Success in 2010 Requires Investing in Other Countries - The folks at Seeking Alpha asked me to give them some thoughts on what 2010 might look like for investors. In all deference to that Chinese proverb, these have been interesting times and are likely to remain interesting a little while longer. In a similar article about what 2009 might look like, I opined that we would be in for a massive rally. That article drew 100 comments, which is by far the most for any post or article I’ve ever written. The general tone of those comments was to call me an idiot for thinking a 30-35% rally could be in the offing. Part of the logic there was that often after big scary declines that threaten the future of civilization as we know it, there is an enormous rally. While that call was not totally wrong, it most certainly was not totally right either. Now for 2010. Certainly those numbers do not preclude 2010 being a huge up year, but they do show that buying power is rarely sustained into a second year.
Impressed by this author? Follow Roger Nusbaum. How to keep your finances on track in 2010. By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- There's no way to put a positive spin on what happened to most investors' retirement portfolios in 2008 and early this year. Simply put, the losses were brutal, and in some cases ruined long-held retirement plans. Yet if there's any consolation to be taken from the past 18 months, it's that many people now pay more attention to their total financial picture -- not just stock and bond investments, but saving and spending habits as well.
Buckle up for 2010 markets A dozen experts weigh in with their 2010 predictions for stocks, bonds and the economy. Barron's Clare McKeen reports. "There's no silver bullet that can undo what happened last year," said Richard Hisey, president of AARP Financial Inc. There are basic financial measures that all investors should be aware of, Hisey said, such as being disciplined about spending and keeping a watchful eye on an investment portfolio's asset allocation. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Barchart.com: Online financial quotes, charts, and technical analysis for stock and commodity traders. After a good decade, is $5,800 gold possible? Peter Brimelow. By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A skillful veteran letter is sanguine about stocks -- but positively gleeful about gold and other hard assets. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden's Costa Rica-based Aden Forecast first came to fame in the last great gold bull market three decades ago. In the current post-2000 gold bull market, the letter has shown remarkable tactical versatility and a definite willingness to compromise its powerful long-run analysis if short term-trends dictate.
(See Aug. 10 column.) It's worked. Over the year to date through September, the Aden Forecast is up 20.2% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, versus 21.3% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. That is, it's pretty well caught the rally. And over the longer run, the Aden Forecast's superiority is striking. In fact, it's been a good decade for the Adens: Over the last ten years, the letter is up annualized 5%, versus just 0.9% annualized for the total return Wilshire.
Jim Rogers says gold will top $2,000 in decade. Zero hedge | on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Grasping Reality with Both Hands.