Battles for legitimacy in Egypt will not end with tomorrow's protests. There is a cottage industry based around predicting what will happen tomorrow, when tens of thousands - perhaps hundreds of thousands - of Egyptians are expected to take to the streets to demand the departure of the president, Mohammed Morsi, on the anniversary of his first year in power. Scenarios are outlined. Possible paths for this latest somersault in the country's turbulent trajectory are calculated. Bets are made on who stands to benefit and who might lose. In truth, it is very hard to predict what will happen. But the coming confrontation could very well mean not only the end of a very flawed democratic transition, but a more fundamental change in the basic civility of Egypt's politics. Backers of the Tamarrod (Rebellion) movement, which now includes almost all of the secular opposition and even some Islamists, are basking in a sense of determination and confidence rarely seen since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February 2011.
The second legitimacy is electoral. Page 2 of 2. June to June: The More Things Change, The More They Remain The Same. A year is a long time in politics, especially those of contemporary Egypt. In June 2012 the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) appeared to be firmly in the saddle. Acting in league with elements in the Supreme Constitutional Court, it prorogued parliament and then unilaterally amended the constitution, bolstering its powers while undermining those of the about to be elected President.
In the ménage à trois of officers, Brothers, and “secular” oppositionists, the latter two were in a tactical embrace to oust the former. At the time, however, that seemed a rather fruitless liaison, for the military seemed to be in an unassailable position. Fast forward to June 2013 and the central focus of Egyptian politics has become the political life or death struggle between the Brothers and the opposition, as symbolized by the massive protest scheduled for the last day of the month, which marks exactly a year since Mohamed Morsi was declared the winner of the presidential election.
After a year of Brotherhood Rule, what next for Egypt? Egypt’s New President: Political and Economic Challenges. The new president of Egypt will face myriad political and economic challenges. On the eve of the announcement of the presidential election results, the Carnegie Middle East Center hosted a round table discussion about the difficulties facing the next president and the consequences his first few months in office will have on the country and the entire region. Carnegie’s Yezid Sayigh moderated the discussion. Great Expectations Perhaps the greatest challenge faced by Egypt’s incoming president will be the population’s high expectations and aspirations, the discussants agreed.
Both candidates made a number of campaign promises of reform and development that they may not be able to keep. Political Challenges Continuing Revolution Hosni Mubarak’s resignation last February did not signal the end of the revolution, agreed Tewfik Aclimandos of Collège de France and Hala Mustafa, of “Democracy Review”. Potential Scenarios Polarization: Security Reform Economic Challenges Fifteen Month Decline. Guest Post: Morsi’s First Six Months – an Appraisal. Guest post by Professor Mohammad H. Fadel, an Egyptian-American-Canadian lawyer and legal academic who practiced corporate finance, banking, and corporate and securities law at the New York law firm of Sullivan & Cromwell LLP.
He blogs here and tweets here. As Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi completes his seventh month in office, it is looking ever more doubtful that Egypt can build on the accomplishments of the January 25 Revolution; the risk of relapse into authoritarian rule increases with the passage of each day in which Egypt’s civilian political leadership prove themselves incapable of addressing the country’s seemingly endless problems. For many opposed to Morsi, all the post-revolutionary problems facing Egypt can be laid at his doorstep, or at the doorstep of the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization to which he belongs. But the truth is a little harder to swallow. Egyptians have inherited from the Mubarak years a legacy of neglect and maladministration on an epic scale. 1. 2.
Can Morsi Survive? The Political Consequences of Mr. Morsi. The week, before demonstrations planned for 30 June demanding President Morsi step down and new elections be held, has been one of unsettling violence. There is an increasing sense of foreboding that the political situation is spinning out of control. It is clearer to many what Egypt is not, (Turkey, Brazil, Tunisia, Eastern Europe) rather than what it is. With millions of Egyptians taking to the streets on 30 June, Egypt has entered into a new period of revolutionary upheaval. The events of the last two weeks have provided some answers to some of the questions of the past two years.
The protests that ousted former President Mubarak were not solely, or even primarily, the work of Islamists hiding under a thin veneer of westernized secular youth. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), despite a wide membership and impressive internal capacity for mobilization is far from the uncontested representative of a heterogeneous but predominantly Muslim society.