Coverage of Egypt on 30 June 2013. Obsessed with Turkish Models in Egypt. Shortly after the outbreak of Turkey’s Gezi Park protests, Egyptian public forums were flooded with a variety of expressions that drew parallels between the respective situations in each of the two countries. The trend reinforced the international media’s initial characterization of protests in Turkey as the manifestation of a region-wide backlash against ruling Islamist parties. Scholars and researchers immediately responded with meticulous explanations for why Turkey is not Egypt, highlighting the stark differences between the two contexts, and offering nuanced arguments for why popular mobilization in Turkey is neither an extension of the so-called “Arab Spring” nor a prelude to a second round of uprisings in the region. In many ways, what the “Turkish model” constitutes exactly has been an important arena of political contestation in Egypt over the past two years—one that elucidates ongoing conflicts between various revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces in the country.
June to June: The More Things Change, The More They Remain The Same. A year is a long time in politics, especially those of contemporary Egypt. In June 2012 the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) appeared to be firmly in the saddle. Acting in league with elements in the Supreme Constitutional Court, it prorogued parliament and then unilaterally amended the constitution, bolstering its powers while undermining those of the about to be elected President. In the ménage à trois of officers, Brothers, and “secular” oppositionists, the latter two were in a tactical embrace to oust the former. At the time, however, that seemed a rather fruitless liaison, for the military seemed to be in an unassailable position. Fast forward to June 2013 and the central focus of Egyptian politics has become the political life or death struggle between the Brothers and the opposition, as symbolized by the massive protest scheduled for the last day of the month, which marks exactly a year since Mohamed Morsi was declared the winner of the presidential election.
Battles for legitimacy in Egypt will not end with tomorrow's protests. There is a cottage industry based around predicting what will happen tomorrow, when tens of thousands - perhaps hundreds of thousands - of Egyptians are expected to take to the streets to demand the departure of the president, Mohammed Morsi, on the anniversary of his first year in power. Scenarios are outlined. Possible paths for this latest somersault in the country's turbulent trajectory are calculated. Bets are made on who stands to benefit and who might lose.
In truth, it is very hard to predict what will happen. But the coming confrontation could very well mean not only the end of a very flawed democratic transition, but a more fundamental change in the basic civility of Egypt's politics. Backers of the Tamarrod (Rebellion) movement, which now includes almost all of the secular opposition and even some Islamists, are basking in a sense of determination and confidence rarely seen since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February 2011. The second legitimacy is electoral. Page 2 of 2. After a year of Brotherhood Rule, what next for Egypt?