Valuation

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Balance sheets are a crucial source of information for stock investors. Balance sheets help in determining the financial health of a company and their analysis should be a large component of one’s stock screening and selection methodology, even for the novice investor. The balance sheet, which is the cornerstone of a company’s financial statement, reveals information about the company’s assets, liabilities and its net worth or equity. These three segments tell the investor what the company owes and owns as well as the amount that the shareholders have invested at any given point of time. For these reasons, it is necessary for a value investor to learn the basics of balance sheet analysis and to invest only in companies that have strong balance sheets. The Graham and Dodd School of investment philosophy stressed the importance of balance sheet analysis and their value investing methodology, and this has proven to be a safer investment option than other methodologies.

Why a Basic Understanding of Balance Sheets Is Indispensible to Value Investors

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/148254/why-a-basic-understanding-of-balance-sheets-is-indispensible-to-value-investors

Valuation - recommended reading

http://www.marketfolly.com/2008/11/investing-trading-books-recommended.html We've been getting some requests from readers for some good books to read when it comes to investing or trading. So, we decided to post up a central list and just add to it as we go along. We're going to start with the recommended reading for investors, as well as some books catered to traders. We'll be releasing the recommended reading in increments of 5 books every month/few weeks. The following are considered essentials by Market Folly for all investors or traders.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/146194/earning-power-return-on-something

Earning Power: Return on Something

The 10-year average is good. In cases like Omnicom ( OMC ), it will yield a similar number. Maybe 10% instead of 13% or something like that. But since it’s a trailing average and Omnicom is usually growing over time — being a little lower is always expected.

Research and Valuation Process

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/how-to-invest-research-valuation/ How to Invest in the Stock Market : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5 (This is a guest post by Ernie , a friend, deep thinker and investor. This was an email sent to me which I received permission to publicly display.) I usually scan for ideas reading print media such as the Wall Street Journal , Barrons , and websites such as Google Finance and blogs looking at 52-wk lows lists looking for headlines that just spell “bad news” and articles that may lead to ideas with catalysts, event driven ideas and sometimes macro-event driven ideas. I’ll use screens if I don’t find anything in the headlines. If something peeks my interest a bit, I’ll try to gather more news and get an idea as to what is happening with the company, look at historical highlights, pull some efficiency, liquidity ratios and some basic numbers to look for consistency and I’ll think about the risks to the current situation a company is in and decide if I could potentially profit off the situation.
When it comes to investing, analyzing financial statement information (also known as quantitative analysis), is one of, if not the most important element in the fundamental analysis process. At the same time, the massive amount of numbers in a company's financial statements can be bewildering and intimidating to many investors. However, through financial ratio analysis, you will be able to work with these numbers in an organized fashion. The objective of this tutorial is to provide you with a guide to sources of financial statement data, to highlight and define the most relevant ratios, to show you how to compute them and to explain their meaning as investment evaluators. In this regard, we draw your attention to the complete set of financials for Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH), a publicly listed company on the NYSE that designs, manufactures and markets orthopedic and related surgical products, and fracture-management devices worldwide. http://www.investopedia.com/university/ratios/#axzz1YLEutbKu

Financial Ratio Tutorial

I’ve been focusing a lot of my time for the past 3 weeks dissecting and reverse engineering Bruce Greenwald’s earnings power value EPV method and it’s time I performed a stock value calculation based on EPV . Microsoft (MSFT) will serve as a fine example since you know the history of the company and what it does. I’ll then compare the EPV valuation price with a DCF value calculation and Benjamin Graham’s formula . I’ll try to add as much information for those that haven’t read Greenwald’s EPV book . (A big thanks to Jim Hodges for providing excellent feedback and discussions on the addition to the investment spreadsheet . Note: This is a long tutorial/analysis.)

How to Value a Stock with Earnings Power Value (EPV)

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/stock-analysis/earnings-power-value-epv-valuation-microsoft/

Fisher's SCUTTLEBUTT - 15 Points to Look for in a Common Stock

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/investing-strategy/15-points-to-look-for-in-a-common-stock/ Previously I had written about a list of Don’ts that was listed in Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits . I said that I would do a book review, but because there is a ton of timeless quotes and information, I will leave it up to you to read it on your own to appreciate its full goodness. Throughout this blog, I’ve stated numerous times that great management must be a part of your company. I would go as far as to say that generally, the importance of stock price is 35% and management 65%. what really counts is a management having both a determination to attain further growth and an ability to bring its plans to completion. – Fisher
http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/146-phil-fisher-on-profit-margins-part-ii/

Phil Fisher on Profit Margins, Part II | Joe Ponzio's F Wall Street

As I mentioned in this post , three of Phil Fisher’s 15 Points to Look For in a Common Stock are directly related to profit margins. Companies with slim profit margins often feel tough economic or business cycles more vehemently than those with fat margins. Of course, there is a flip side to that coin: When coming out of tough times, companies with thin profit margins tend to rebound much more than those with fat margins. This is usually because of the bipolar nature of Mr. Market.
Financial Statement analysis

http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/calculate-intrinsic-value.html The price you are paying is the ultimate determinant for the rate of return that you'll be earning. The higher the price you pay for it, you'll be getting lower rate of return. This is why, you need to know how much a stock worth. Once you know its value, you can identify which stocks are traded at discounted price. However, buying a stock simply because it is cheap is not the right approach either. This is another reason to calculate intrinsic value.

How to Calculate Intrinsic Value for Stock Warren Buffet Way

Discounted Cash Flow & Stock Valuation

Jae Jun The purpose of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is to find the sum of the future cash flow of the business and discount it back to a present value. I use the F Wall Street method of valuing a business along with some tweaks here and there to suit my tastes in the free and best valuation spreadsheets you can find on this site. The advantage of this method is that it requires the investor to think about the stock as a business and analyze its cash flow rather than earnings. The first and foremost reason a business exists is to make money where money = cash, not earnings. Since cash is what a business needs in order to maintain and grow its operations, it’s only right to consider the possibility of its future cash growth rather than earnings growth. http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/discounted-cash-flow-stock-valuation/

BDX DCF valuation and Graham stock analysis

Gross Profit 1,706.7 $ 1,770.0 $ 1,841.0 $ 1,949.4 $ 2,191.7 $ 2,434.4 $ 2,752.7 $ 2,948.0 $ 3,287.8 $ 3,663.4 $ 3,726.2 $ Gross Profit (%) 4 9 . 9 % 4 8 . 9 % 4 9 . 0 % 4 8 . 3 % 4 8 . 4 % 4 9 . 3 % 5 0 . 8 % 5 0 . 5 % 5 1 . 7 % 5 1 . 2 % 5 1 . 9 % SG&A 931.9 $ 973.9 $ 983.3 $ 1,032.0 $ 1,207.5 $ 1,311.5 $ 1,449.9 $ 1,537.5 $ 1,602.4 $ 1,715.1 $ 1,728.3 $ SG&A (%) 2 7 . 3 % 2 6 . 9 % 2 6 . 2 % 2 5 . 6 % 2 6 . 7 % 2 6 . 6 % 2 6 . 8 % 2 6 . 4 % 2 5 . 2 % 2 4 . 0 % 2 4 . 1 % R&D 254.0 $ 223.8 $ 211.8 $ 220.2 $ 235.1 $ 235.7 $ 271.6 $ 360.0 $ 482.2 $ 396.2 $ 404.9 $ R&D (%) 7 . 4 % 6 . 2 % 5 . 6 % 5 . 5 % 5 . 2 % 4 . 8 % 5 . 0 % 6 . 2 % 7 . 6 % 5 . 5 % 5 . 6 % Other 75.5 $ 57.5 $ N a N 2 1 . 5 $ - N a N 1 0 0 . 0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ Other (%) 2 . 2 % 1 . 6 % # V A L U E ! 0 . 5 % # V A L U E !

How to Value a Stock with Benjamin Graham’s Formula

where V is the intrinsic value, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the PE ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g being the growth rate for the next 7-10 years. The formula is essentially the same except the number 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above. But intrinsic value shouldn’t be calculated based on a single 12 month period which is why I have the EPS automatically adjusted to a normalized number ignoring one time huge or depressed earnings based on 5 year or 10 year history depending on the company you are looking at. EPS is never really a good number on its own as it is highly prone to manipulation with modern accounting methods.