China hard landing...2012/2013?
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This Thursday, March 22, The Guardian (of the UK) publish ed a friendly email “debate” between Andrew Batson, of Gavekal Dragonomics, and me over whether China’s economy faces a “hard landing” in 2012 — with me arguing that it does, and Andrew that it doesn’t. You can read our exchange below, or access the original here . The China bears grow ever gloomier, while the bulls maintain their confidence. So will the world’s second largest economy see a hard landing in 2012 or can its leaders steer a steady course?
Debating a “Hard Landing” « Patrick Chovanec
perspectives... hard landing?
Perspectives... soft landing?
Stuctural Fault Lines in the Chinese economy...
Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space Comments View/Create comment on this paragraph BERKELEY – With the world’s rich countries still hung over from the financial crisis, the global economy has come to depend on emerging markets to drive growth. Increasingly, machinery exporters, energy suppliers, and raw-materials producers alike look to China and other fast-growing developing countries as the key source of incremental demand. Comments View/Create comment on this paragraph But Chinese officials warn that their economy is poised to slow.
Slowing China
May 30th 2011, 16:52 by T.E. | HONG KONG CHINA ’S economy has, at least on paper, survived forces that have overwhelmed much of the rest of the world. But the recent round of bank tightening seems, at least indirectly, to be hitting with real force.
China's slowdown: Starts with a spark | The Economist
As China fitfully tries to rebalance its economy, a small but rising number of Chinese economists are beginning to predict sharply lower annual growth rates of 6% to 7% over the next few years. But the arithmetic of adjustment suggests growth is likely to be even lower, perhaps half that level. China's growth over the past couple of decades was based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturing.
Get Used to Slower Chinese Growth - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Quand la Chine grisonnera, par Isabelle Attané (Le Monde diplomatique)
Avec 1,35 milliard de personnes en 2010, soit un habitant de la planète sur cinq, la Chine est le pays le plus peuplé du monde. Elle le restera pendant une vingtaine d’années. Dès 2030, elle devrait céder la place à l’Inde, qui compterait alors plus de 20 millions de personnes de plus qu’elle.
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