Hugh Hendry Turns Bullish. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri Eclectica Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer and Founding Partner Hugh Hendry gestures as he speaks during The Economist's Buttonwood Gathering in New York October 25, 2012. Hugh Hendry of Eclectica is one of the more articulate and closely followed hedge fund managers in the world today. Until today, he was also one of the more bearish managers too. "I can no longer say I am bearish," said Hendry today according to InvestmentWeek. "When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out.
" Speaking at the Harrington Cooper conference, Hendry argued that an ongoing currency war between the U.S. and China will continue to force the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy loose and easy. "I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate," he said. Hendry sounded pretty crestfallen. Is there no one else? James Montier Resource Page Simplweb- Euro Share Lab.
By Tim du Toit I met James Montier at a value investment seminar in Italy in 2007 where he presented. We had long discussions later the day and into the evening on value investing and investment strategy. James was kind enough to put me on his distribution list and I really looked forward to each of his articles as they always taught me something. Unfortunately James decreased his writings since taking a position with the asset manager GMO in 2010. I decided to put this resource page together so you can also benefit from James’s investment wisdom.
James Montier’s Amazon Page shows all the books he has authored as well as the following short biography: James Montier is a member of GMO’s asset allocation team. Prior to that, he was the co-Head of Global Strategy at Société Générale and has been the top-rated strategist in the annual Thomson Extel survey for most of the last decade. Montier is the author of four market-leading books: A great resource, thank you Frank for putting it together. The Big Picture » The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing » Print. By James Montier In my previous missive I concluded that investors should stay true to the principles that have always guided (and should always guide) sensible investment, but I left readers hanging as to what I believe those principles might actually be. So, now, for the moment of truth, I present a set of principles that together form what I call The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing. They are as follows: 1. Always insist on a margin of safety 2. This time is never different 3.
Be patient and wait for the fat pitch 4. So let’s briefly examine each of them, and highlight any areas where investors’ current behavior violates one (or more) of the laws. 1. Valuation is the closest thing to the law of gravity that we have in finance. When investors violate Law 1 by investing with no margin of safety, they risk the prospect of the permanent impairment of capital.
For the article, they used this lead: “Admit it, you still have nightmares about the ones that got away. “Now, hold on a minute. Howard Marks: The Human Side of Investing. These are the notes taken by GuruFocus editor Holly LaFon from Value Investor Conference in Omaha that is still ongoing today. – Editor’s note. People are risk averse.
It’s one of the great fallacies that riskier assets get better returns. Truth is sometimes risk premium is appropriate. Sometimes it is inadequate and sometimes excessive. As you move up the risk, you move up the return. But in practice, Q2 of 2007, before crisis hit, it looked like this. Theory: People want more of something at lower prices and less of it at higher prices. Human failings: At Chicago they talk about efficient markets – markets that don’t make mistakes. So this fluctuation takes place. Think about a bull market cycle. It is very important that realize that there aren’t safe or risky things to buy. Other than buying securities one at a time, most important question is whether to be on offense or defense, or how much of each.
Charlie Munger: “This stuff is not easy, and people who think it is are stupid.” Berkshire - Shareholder Letters.
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