Russia Eyes North Korea. Cross-posted from TotalWonkerr.com.
Few things are more curious than how senior Russian officials have described the more spectacular North Korean missile and nuclear developments of recent years. Compared to Japan, South Korea, and the U.S., the Russians are outliers. First, recall the multiple missile launches of July 5, 2006. The synoptic view is that North Korea launched seven missiles, including a TD-2, which failed seconds into flight. The rest were SRBMs and MRBMs. And here is the Russian view: 05/07/2006 14:12 MOSCOW, July 5 (RIA Novosti) – Russia most senior army officer said Wednesday that North Korea may have fired 10 missiles – four more than first thought – in tests late Tuesday night. It seems, moreover, that Russian early warning radars could not see the missile launches.
Then there was the nuclear test of Oct. 9, 2006: Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said the North Korean nuclear device was the equivalent of 5 to 15 kilotons of TNT. Resolving the North Korean nuclear impasse: a Russian perspective. Author: Alexander Vorontsov, Russian Academy of Sciences During 2010, the nuclear problem on the Korean Peninsula played itself out in an intense, unchecked manner in the midst of worsening inter-Korean relations.
At the same time, the mechanisms for resolving, freezing and eventually eliminating its nuclear program were virtually inactive. This applies to both the bilateral formats and the main international tool designed to meet those goals, the six-party talks. A fundamental factor behind the crisis on the Korean peninsula, beginning with the tragic sinking of the Cheonan in March 2010, appears to be North Korean resistance to the US-ROK alliance. This is not new, but escalated to a new level of antagonism. With the full support of the US, the Lee administration initiated efforts to implement a regime change in Pyongyang. But there is another extremely important factor — China. Pyongyang knows it is now dealing with a revived long-term US-ROK strategy. Russia-North Korea: Denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
Authors: Alexander Vorontsov and Oleg Revenko, Russian Academy of Sciences Kim Jong-il’s recent visit to Russia and his brief meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev in Ulan-Ude continue to stir interest in political circles.
This was the North Korean leader’s first trip to Russia since 2002. The fact that it was prepared in strict secrecy and little is known about its results makes it even more intriguing. The Russian president said that Kim Jong-il touched upon all the current matters: bilateral, multilateral and regional security issues, including the North Korean nuclear problem and the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. North Korea is a particular and complex country which is often hard to understand. This is what Moscow is trying to achieve. Moscow does not believe in the myth of Kim Jong-il’s ‘unpredictability’ and ‘irrationalism’. But this year Pyongyang and Seoul spoke almost simultaneously about their participation in the promising projects. Russia-North Korea trade. Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU In mid-August, the armoured train of the ‘Dear Leader’, Marshall Kim Jong-il once again crossed the Russian border.
This time, he did not venture far: the summit with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took place in the city of Ulan-Ude. Among other things, the summit produced a statement about a gas pipeline which is to go through the North to reach the South. This is an interesting and important project, so it is pertinent to take a brief look at its background, and at the state of the economic interaction between Russia and North Korea. In 2010, the volume of trade between these two countries was merely US$110 million. The reason for this inactivity is quite simple: Russian companies have no interest in dealing with North Korea. North Korea has only two resources that can be sold on the international market.
But Russian companies are decisively uninterested in North Korean minerals. Yet, a word of caution is necessary.