UBS' Euro Doom And Gloom Team Releases Sequel: "The Eurozone Sovereign Crisis Has Entered A More Dangerous Phase" From the same fine Swiss folks who three weeks ago (and before it was uncovered that when it comes to playing, or at least scapegoating, dangerously, UBS is second to none) brought you, "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change," comes the sequel: "We believe the Eurozone sovereign crisis has entered a more dangerous phase. Financial and banking stresses are plainly evident as concerns about sovereign default grow. Notwithstanding signs from Washington this past weekend that European and world leaders are willing to consider more decisive policies, concrete steps remain elusive. Yet rising uncertainty threatens an already weakened world economy.
" The Swiss Bank's conclusions? And let's cut right down to the case, or in this case the section UBS titles, "Risk Scenarios": Full report: EU given six weeks to protect itself against 'inevitable Greek default' | Business | The Observer. European Union governments will spend the next six weeks building a financial firewall to protect their fragile banking systems against what is now seen as an inevitable Greek default. G20 sources said that up to 50% was likely to be wiped from the face value of Greece's €350bn debt – but not until Europe had put into place a war chest to prevent the contagion spreading.
More money will be disbursed by the International Monetary Fund and the EU next month to keep the Greek government afloat, but this is seen as a short-term fix while Europe's leaders beef up the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. Europe came under ferocious pressure at this weekend's IMF meeting in Washington to contain the spiralling crisis, which is blamed for dragging the global economy to the brink of a double-dip recession. The IMF is reportedly willing to continue bailing out Greece in the short-term, provided that Europe uses the time to tackle the issue of debt once and for all. What Next For Greece And For Europe? By Peter Boone and Simon Johnson Uncertainty about potential loan losses in Europe continues to roil markets around the world. For many investors, taxpayers, and ordinary citizens there is no clarity on the exact current situation – let alone a stable view about what could happen next.
What should any friends of Europe — the US, G20, IMF, perhaps even China — strongly suggest that they do? A good start would involve being honest on four points. There is nothing pleasant about the truth in such crisis situations, but continued denial increasingly becomes dangerous to all involved. Greece is on the front burner. The first brutal truth is that this is a default by Greece and all attempts to deny this or use another word just muddy the waters. Greece can probably afford to service debt restructured to this level – although that will depend also on the final terms of EU and IMF funding. The ice has been broken: The EU has agreed that a euro area member can default.
La notation grecque: un enjeu crucial. Derrière les débats publics se livre un conflit dont les conséquences pourraient être vitales pour la Grèce. Standard & Poor’s a décidé que la proposition de rééchelonnement de la dette grecque a 30 ans a 5,5% constituait une forme de « défaut sélectif ». En d’autres termes, un « évènement de credit » qui équivaut a une forme de défaut de paiement. On comprend la logique: il est évident que les obligations que les détenteurs de la dette souveraine à court terme de la Grèce ne valent plus leur valeur nominale, même si elles continuent à être comptabilisées à ce niveau. . Cette opération constitue une forme d’artifice qui remplace des obligations dépréciées par…des obligations dépréciées.
Aujourd’hui, la prime de risque (CDS) de la Grèce est cotée à un taux historique et prohibitif de 20%. La dette a 10 ans de la Grèce a un rendement du même ordre. La dette à court terme approche les 30%. C’est évidemment un tour de passe-passe. L’argument européen n’est pas faux. The French proposal. The private sector participation looks more a political toy than a real contribution to a solution of a financial problem. It complicates a practical solution as it is running on the border between 'to default or not to default' for both CDS and rating and not really safe big amounts. 1. 7 or 30 is only relevant when there won't be a restructuring (at least the first 7 year) which is highly unlikely. Why get into more complicated negotiations while what you want to gain is difficult to achieve, has a cost, and most likely won't be used anyway? 2. Not to default imho only works to the market if not everybody is seeing it as a default anyway and that group is getting smaller by the day.
You can change the word in the dictionary and say that it means prospering, but in this world 'you cannot fool all the people all the time or even 30 years'. Presenting … the French proposal in full. SocGen’s Q&A on the French proposal. Combien et à quelle date la BCE détient de dette souveraine grecque ? Le grand bal des chiffres. Petite revue de presse sur la détention par la BCE de dette grecque 45 milliards d'euros de dette grecque, sans date, c'est par ici, L'Agefi du 24 mai 2011 : 50 milliards d'euros de titres grecs, sans date, c'est par ici, Businessweek : Des chinois semblent plus prudents, puisqu'ils avancent une fourchette, 40 à 50 milliards d'euros de dette grecque, mais sans date, c'est China Post du 16 avril 2011 : 60 milliards d'euros d'obligations publiques grecques, sans date, c'est par là, L'Express du 18 mai 2011 : 190 milliards d'euros de titres grecs, sans date, c'est là, Wansquare du 6 juin 2011 : Qui dit mieux ?
Greece debt crisis: how exposed is your bank? | Business. How exposed are the world's big banks to the Greece Debt crisis? The crisis is tying up many of Europe's leaders in constant negotiations to agree a bailout deal. Investment bank researchers at UBS have looked at which banks are the most exposed to the crisis. The banks with the highest exposure to Greek's problems are not necessarily those with the most invested - the UBS figures also compare the banks' exposure to Greek debt to their total equity, to illustrate whether they have sufficiently strong reserves to handle a Greek debt default. So, which banks are worst hit?
After the Greek banks, the hardest hit would be those from France and the 11 German banks with stakes in the country. There is also some €2.3bn invested by British banks too. The full data is below. Data summary. Exposition des banques françaises à la Grèce. Des milliards d'euros en plus pour le Crédit Agricole sur les prêts et avances. Enjeu, des milliards d'euros pour le Crédit Agricole et environ 1,4 milliard pour la Société Générale.
A priori non. Mais quid des cautions et avals ? Les récentes annonces d'agences de notation sur les expositions des banques françaises à la Grèce ont ravivé la pression des marchés sur ces dernières. Exemple Moody's Dans les annonces de Moody's et Fitch, seules deux natures d'exposition à la Grèce ont été mises en avant : - l'exposition nette à la dette souveraine grecque ; - l'exposition aux créances privées de filiales, notamment Emporiki pour le Crédit Agricole (ordre de grandeur de 20 milliards d'euros fin mars 2011) et Geniki pour la Société Générale (ordre de grandeur de 3,4 milliards d'euros fin mars 2011). Ces montants figurent bien à l'actif des comptes CONSOLIDES. Dans le cas d'une filiale grecque, deux autres types d'exposition peuvent être relevées, mais dans les comptes SOCIAUX : 1. 2.
Le pari grec, Editoriaux. Alléger la dette grecque : les 3 scénarios. Le 17 mai dernier les ministres des Finances de la zone euro ont reconnu que compte tenu des faibles perspectives de croissance de la Grèce, il fallait aider le pays en allégeant sa dette. Mais ils ne se sont pas mis d’accord sur la meilleure façon de faire. Trois scénarios différents s’offrent à eux. La Grèce ne s’en sort pas Les toutes dernières prévisions de la Commission européenne ne sont guère réjouissantes pour l’économie grecque : une chute de croissance de 3,5 % cette année après - 4,5 % l’an dernier.
L’activité est plombée par un manque de demande intérieure : la consommation des ménages est laminée par la montée du chômage (15 % de la population active cette année) et une pression à la baisse sur les salaires ; l’investissement est en chute libre avec l’absence de demande et par un manque de crédits, les banques reprenant plus à l’économie en remboursement d’emprunts qu’elles ne distribuent de nouveaux prêts. Cela va également dans le bon sens. Source : Commission européenne.
Grèce : dernière ligne droite avant le rééchelonnement. Rien ne va plus dans la zone euro. La Grèce est sur la sellette un an après avoir sauvée par le programme concocté par le FMI et la Commission européenne. L’Espagne tangue et l’Italie a été placée sous surveillance par Standard and Poor’s. Les députés de la CDU sont en rébellion contre Angela Merkel, qui subit défaite électorale après défaite électorale. Son ministre des Finances, qui avait secoué les marchés financiers en évoquant publiquement un rééchelonnement de la dette grecque, vient de changer d’avis.
Pourquoi le déficit grec ne se résorbe-t-il pas ? La Commission prévoit un déficit de 9,5% du PIB en 2011 et de 9,3% en 2012 après 10,4% en 2010. Que faire maintenant ? Pour le FMI et la Commission, il faut faire plus et mieux. « La Grèce a progressé en direction de ses objectifs [ceux qui lui ont été imposés comme condition du prêt], et les réformes budgétaires et structurelles nécessaires sont graduellement mises en œuvre.
Qu’est ce qu’une restructuration ? Qui décide ? © Telos. German exposure to Greece, a bad bank tale [updated] UE : la commissaire grecque évoque le risque que son pays quitte l'euro, Actualités. What happens when Greece defaults. It is when, not if. Financial markets merely aren't sure whether it'll be tomorrow, a month's time, a year's time, or two years' time (it won't be longer than that). Given that the ECB has played the "final card" it employed to force a bailout upon the Irish – threatening to bankrupt the country's banking sector – presumably we will now see either another Greek bailout or default within days.
What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things: - Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent. - The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece. - The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks. - To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets, Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of such depositors), the Greek government will declare a curfew, perhaps even general martial law. - Attention will turn to the British banks. Argentina: the default scenario for Greece. Euro exit as legal quagmire. The options ahead. On 23 April 2010, when Prime Minister George Papandreou asked from the small island of Kastellorizo for “the activation of the support mechanism” for Greece, the interest rate on the country’s 10-year bonds was nearly 9 percent and the ratio of government debt to GDP was 115.1 percent.
One year later, the interest rate has more than doubled and the ratio has risen to 142.7 percent (the highest in the eurozone), fuelling the debate over a possible Greek debt restructuring. While analysts, investors and government officials from different countries argue on the time, scope and necessity of debt restructuring, a lot of questions remain unanswered. What form can a restructuring of the public debt take? What will the consequences be for the economy? Can this be the way out of the debt crisis?
The Athens News has gathered reports of some leading foreign banks and contacted experts, looking for possible answers. Restructuring options Role of insurance funds Debt history in Europe The bad example For. Greece bailout fails to halt debt woes | Business. Greece's finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, is expected to ask the eurozone to renegotiate the terms of the €110bn bailout. Photograph: John Kolesidis/Reuters/Corbis The eurozone's first ever bailout of a debt-laden member country is failing and will need to be renegotiated exactly a year after the €110bn (£96bn) rescue package was agreed for Greece. Following secret talks in Luxembourg on Friday between Athens and some of the key EU players, it emerged that Greece will not be able to meet the terms of last year's rescue and is hoping to ask the eurozone for more funds.
As Britain made clear it did not want to offer any more support for Greece as part of an EU package or a bilateral loan, investors remain unconvinced of the ability of Athens to sustain its €340bn debt load. After the talks – attended by the finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy and Spain as well as Olli Rehn, European monetary affairs commissioner – Juncker said the Greek package needed a "readjustment".
The guilty Greek maturities. Greece suffers another downgrade of its credit rating | Business. Greece presidential guards march in front of the parliament in Athens. Photograph: Orestis Panagiotou/EPA Standard & Poor's has again infuriated Greece by cutting the credit rating of the debt-laden country – from BB- to B – and warning that it could be slashed even further. The agency issued the downgrade amid speculation that the €110bn (£97bn) International Monetary Fund and European Union bailout is being renegotiated, only a year after being agreed, and its expectation that investors face losses on their bond holdings. Greece was quick to issue a statement saying that the downgrade "comes at a time when there have been no new negative developments or decisions since the last rating action by the agency just over a month ago and therefore is not justified".
In March, S&P had cut the rating to BB- and warned the country faced another downgrade if the 2010 budget or 2011 fiscal performance fell below expectations. Greece seeks longer to repay €110bn IMF bailout loan as austerity bites | Business. Riot police in Athens as protesters mark the anniversary of the 2008 police killing of a teenager. Thousands marched through the Greek capital amid rising discontent over the debt crisis and stringent austerity measures. Photograph: John Kolesidis/Reuters Demonstrations are expected in Athens today as the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, arrives for a two-day visit to the debt-laden country.
Nearly a year after Athens emerged on the frontline of Europe's worst-ever fiscal crisis, George Papandreou, the prime minister, faces one of the biggest tests of his political leadership as he uses the visit to negotiate an extension of the repayment period Greece has been given for the €110bn (£95bn) EU and IMF-sponsored rescue package it received in May. The IMF chief will also meet Greece's finance finance minister, opposition leader and central bank governor, and is due to speak at Parliament's economic affairs committee.
Greece wins easier repayment terms on EU bailout loans | Business. Greek debt: restructured. George Papandreou risks sparking class war over austerity cuts | World news. Time for a Haircut? IMF Pressures Greece to Restructure Debt - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International. Grèce : restructuration de la dette possible… à partir de 2013. Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Should Restructure Debt Now, Claims Country Is Insolvent And Further Lending Is Not Viable Strategy | zero hedge. Greece can only recover if its debt is restructured, say economists | Business. Greek 10-yr yields hit euro-era high; euro slips. It’s all Greek (banks) to the ECB. Credit Agricole names its Greek pain. Greek bank risk – another New Europe tour. A Greek buyback boondoggle. A (hard) Greek restructuring by the numbers. La France va-t-elle banquer pour la Grèce?
Quelles sont les banques françaises les plus exposées à la crise grecque ? Athens Mulls Plans for New Currency: Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International. WHAT IF GREECE LEAVES THE EURO? Head Of Eurogroup Admits To Lying About "Secret Greek Meeting" Out Of Fears For Market Collapse - "When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie" | zero hedge. Nicolas Sarkozy écarte toute restructuration de la dette grecque. Georges Papaconstantinou: "il n'est pas question de restructurer la dette grecque"
Le moulin à rumeurs contre la Grèce. La dette grecque bientôt restructurée?