The ECB's Secret Letter to Ireland: Some Questions. How Ireland's Richest Man Went From $6 Billion To -$3.5 Billion.
Ireland's problems are far from over | Business. Irish finance minister Michael Noonan. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Listening to Irish finance minister Michael Noonan you would think that exporting lots medical devices and gallons of milk is enough to support a vibrant economy. More than that, a few minutes in his company and you might be forgiven for believing this export fever will also bring down one of the biggest debt-to-GDP ratios of any nation in modern history. It is the cheery, optimists version of economics he subscribes to, with the cavalry, in the form of the IMF, rescuing everyone in the final reel. That's not to say there isn't some merit in the argument.
To this end, Ireland's exports are up and it has the rare boast of a trade surplus, something the UK would prefer to its current deficit. But Noonan's strategy is not built on firm foundations. Obviously it is not an unusual stance. Irish ministers love the popular T-shirt slogans "Ireland isn't Greece" and "Ireland isn't Portugal". Think of the Irish economy as a cake. L'Irlande pourrait organiser un référendum sur l'euro. En déplacement à Londres pour rencontrer son homologue britannique, Michael Noonan a déclaré que la ratification du pacte budgétaire "revenait finalement à se poser une question très simple : si nous voulons continuer dans la zone euro ou pas", précisant ensuite que la nécessité d'un tel référendum n'était pas encore "certaine".
Pour rassurer ses partenaires, le ministre s'est toutefois montré confiant sur le fait que les Irlandais répondrait positivement si un tel référendum devait avoir lieu... Se contredisant au passage; puisqu'il avait jugé "difficile" une victoire du "oui" à un tel scrutin vendredi, compte tenu de l'hostilité du peuple irlandais aux politiques d'austérités menées par le gouvernement. Les dix-sept pays de la zone euro plus les autres membres de l'UE, à l'exception de la Grande-Bretagne, se sont accordés vendredi dernier à Bruxelles sur un nouveau traité accélérant leur intégration économique et budgétaire. Attentisme. Ireland's budget leak to Germany brings home some harsh realities | Siobhán Dowling. Loss of sovereignty may be an abstract notion, but this week Irish people were confronted with what it means in reality. Revelations that draft proposals for the Irish December budget had been circulated in a German parliamentary committee were met with horror in Ireland.
It has since emerged that they were sent to every finance minister in the EU. Members of Irish opposition parties have been in uproar at the fact that parliamentarians in Berlin were privy to vital information, such as a proposed 2% hike in VAT. Meanwhile they and other elected members of the Dáil would have to wait with the rest of the population until budget day, 6 December, to learn where exactly the axe was to fall. Although the government insisted that the plans seen in Berlin were not final, the Irish minister for finance, Michael Noonan, confirmed on Friday that he would indeed be proposing to the government that they increase the top rate of VAT by 2% to 23%.
When Irish Eyes Are Crying | Business. A single decision sank Ireland, but when I ask Lenihan about it he becomes impatient, as if it isn’t a fit topic for conversation. It wasn’t much of a decision, he says, as he had no choice. The Irish financial markets are governed by rules rooted in English law, and under English law bondholders enjoy the same status as ordinary depositors. That is, it was against the law to protect the little people with deposits in the bank without also saving the big investors who owned Irish bank bonds.
This rings a bell. When U.S. On September 30, 2008, in the heat of the moment, Lenihan gave the same reason for guaranteeing the banks’ debts that Merrill Lynch had given him: to prevent “contagion.” Across Europe just now men who thought their title was “minister of finance” have woken up to the idea that their job is actually government bond salesman. But there was once a time when the wishes of the E.C.B. didn’t matter to Ireland. Bring Me a Little Ire. Ireland becomes poster child for implementing austerity programmes | Business. Ireland was the Icarus economy. It was the low-tax, Celtic tiger model that become the European home for US multinationals in the hi-tech sectors of pharma and IT.
Ireland was open, export-driven and growing fast, but flew too close to the sun and crashed back to earth. The final humiliation came when it had to seek a bailout a year ago. In a colossal property bubble, debt as a share of household income doubled, the balance of payments sank deeper and deeper into the red, the government finances become over-reliant on stamp duty from the sale of houses and the banks leveraged up to the eyeballs. There was something of the Greek tragedy about it all. One bank in particular, Anglo Irish, was the lender of choice for property developers and when the ghost estates started to spring up it was in effect insolvent. But September 2008 was no normal time. Policymakers had already sensed trouble ahead, with the first spending cuts announced in July 2008. That's the bad news.
‘Pathetic’ Irish Banks Face Down Government Over ECB Rate Cuts. The Irish government is finding the 62 billion euros ($84.2 billion) it spent on saving the country’s banks doesn’t necessarily buy it control. The two biggest lenders, Bank of Ireland Plc and Allied Irish Banks Plc (ALBK), rejected yesterday a government request to reduce variable interest rates after the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 1.25 percent Deputy Prime Minister Eamon Gilmore said in parliament today he may introduce laws to force through rate cuts.
The argument goes to the heart of the difficulties enmeshing the Irish financial system, which came close to collapse after a real estate bubble burst in 2008. On one hand, rising funding costs mean banks are reluctant to cut rates for home borrowers. On the other hand, home loan arrears are surging after unemployment tripled and property prices crashed. “This is a Catch 22 situation,” Rory Murray, an analyst at broker Glas Securities in Dublin, said. Banks Refuse KBC Arrears. Ireland aims to cut debt repayments on EU loans | Business. Irish finance minister Michael Noonan has warned that he is planning another 'tough budget'. Photograph: Haydn West/PA Ireland's finance minister Michael Noonan says that he will exploit the eurozone crisis to seek easier bailout terms for his cash-strapped economy. Speaking to journalists in Dublin on Wednesday, Noonan stressed that his country was the success story Europe needed but added that recovery was being impeded by the burden of debt.
"The European authorities and the sovereign nations of Europe defend the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal on the basis that they will be successful", Noonan said. Noonan is planning what he warned would be another "tough budget" in two weeks' time, but said he was now looking for help in ensuring that Ireland's export-led recovery gathered momentum. "The overall burden of debt is going to impede growth", Noonan said, commenting on IMF forecasts that Ireland's debt will be 118% of GDP in 2013, a level similar to that of Italy. Ministers indicate rate cut possible on Anglo bailout - The Irish Times - Mon, Nov 07. TWO SENIOR Ministers have raised expectations of substantial reductions in interest on the €47 billion bailout deal for Anglo Irish Bank. Minister for Communications Pat Rabbitte and Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar yesterday suggested that a renegotiation of the punitive 8.2 interest rate being paid on the €30.6 billion promissory note used to recapitalise Anglo Irish Bank will more than compensate for the €700 million paid out to unsecured bondholders of the failed bank.
The Coalition funded the €30.6 billion bank recapitalisation through a promissory note, or IOU from the European Central Bank, on which the State will pay €17 billion in interest costs, unless rates are renegotiated. Opposition parties have claimed that the Government is using these negotiations, with absolutely no guarantee of success, to deflect attention from widespread criticism of last week’s €700 million payment to bondholders. “We will get something but don’t know yet how much and when. Irlande : le « tigre celtique » remis de la crise ? Pas si vite ! | Rue89 Eco. Les derniers chiffres du PIB irlandais sont encourageants. Notamment tirée par une hausse de l’excédent commercial de 8% (un record), la croissance du pays a atteint 1,3% au premier trimestre 2011.
Une bonne nouvelle pour le pays, qui a besoin d’atteindre son objectif de 2% de croissance en 2011 s’il veut espérer rembourser sa colossale dette de 148 milliards d’euros (95% du PIB) et ainsi se sortir progressivement de la tenaille du FMI et de l’Union européenne. Les marchés ont salué ces chiffres, offrant une détente des taux de la dette souveraine qui se stabilisent aujourd’hui aux alentours de 8% après avoir atteint des pics vertigineux à 14% voire 22%, selon les échéances de remboursement. Certains analystes s’enthousiasment de cette performance, qui attesterait selon eux d’une « victoire de la rigueur contre le keynésianisme ».
Qu’en est-il vraiment ? A y regarder de plus près, l’ex-« tigre celtique » est loin d’être tiré d’affaire. L’Irlande est le moins pire des Piigs. A Call for a Write-Down on Irish Debt. Peter Morrison/Associated PressA branch of the Bank of Ireland in Dublin. DUBLIN — A major write-down on Greek debt appears to be inevitable. But what about Ireland? Bailed-out Irish banks continue to pay interest to their bondholders on 75 billion euros in debt — about half the country’s gross domestic product — and despite Ireland’s improved economic performance over the past year, many here believe that these institutions should suffer the same haircut that the banks holding Greek debt are expected to absorb. “We need to write this stuff off,” said Peter Mathews, a voluble banking and real estate consultant who was recently elected to the Irish Parliament on a robust bank-bashing platform. Mr. Of course, such a figure is gross, and does not take into account the significant assets that households and corporations have.
“Japan has lost two decades of growth — what the hell are we going do with debt of 490 percent of G.D.P.,” Mr. Nonetheless, Mr. “There are losses out there,” he said. Irish economic crisis-On the Edge with Max Keiser-09-23-2011. Europe's periphery: Are Irish eyes smiling? Renegotiation of bailout needed to keep tax pledge - The Irish Times - Thu, Sep 22. What happens to Ireland if Greece defaults? | Business.
Greek protests against austerity are a regular occurrence, but Ireland seems resigned to the conditions of its bailout programme. Photograph: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP Greece is hanging by a thread and Ireland is getting increasingly nervous about the implications for its own future. The whole point of austerity measures in Greece was to reduce the primary deficit. With retrenchment choking off any hope of economic growth, the opposite has occurred. As we all know, there is now a real chance that Greece will be denied the €8bn tranche of the previously agreed €110bn bailout programme, in which case default would be inevitable and it would most likely abandon the euro.
If this happens, what are the implications for Ireland? The first thing to say is that both the troika and Ireland have a part to play in determining whether the country follows suit or not. Worst case: Ireland could be pushed out of the euro The first effect would be on the country's borrowing costs. Ireland could chose to default. Tasc: Wiping Clean the Anglo/INBS Debt Slate. The Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide debt must become a major political issue. The Anglo/INBS debt-burden is an unjust and unwarranted charge which the Irish people ought have no responsibility for, a charge which will continue to drain the productive economy for years to come.
In the following we discuss how we can expunge this debt based on (a) renegotiating the promissory note, (b) renegotiating a new repayment schedule (if any are needed), (c) writing down bondholder debt, and (d) political strategies to strengthen the Government’s negotiating position. The starting point should be a Government announcement this autumn that it does not intend to continue with the current promissory note payment schedule and will enter into renegotiation with the affected parties. Many people are not aware that the vast majority of the Anglo/INBS debt has yet to be repaid. While the full amount has been placed on our general government debt, this was an accounting exercise. A New Repayment Schedule. Are Irish civil servants paid too much? | Business. Jürgen Stark, the European Central Bank's outgoing chief economist, has infuriated Dublin with his calls for more austerity and cuts in public sector pay. Deputy prime minister Eamon Gilmore dismissed his remarks as personal comments made out of turn.
He said the decision was not Stark's to make and pointed out that the IMF and EU had recently said Ireland was keeping to targets set in the bailout agreement. "Our agreement is with the institution [the ECB]. It's not with individuals within it," said Gilmore. In a lengthy interview with the Irish Times, Stark said civil servants' pay needed to be cut because it was still among the highest in the eurozone. But was Stark right? Its research paper on Public Sector Pay at a Glance published in July shows Stark is broadly correct: • Irish central government staff work fewer hours than their counterparts in the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and even Hungary and Greece.
. • Middle management in Irish central government are the fifth best paid in Europe. Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015. L’Irlande vers le naufrage. Le gouvernement irlandais est bien parti pour devoir assumer une dette de près de 250 milliards d’euros en 2014. Le spectre d’une faillite nationale durable et chaotique se précise, prédit l'économiste Morgan Kelly. L’Irlande est menacée de ruine économique. Six mois après le renflouement de 85 milliards d’euros orchestré par l’UE et le FMI, alors que la dette publique irlandaise se retrouve classée à peine un cran au-dessus du néant et que la ruée sur les banques irlandaises commence à menacer les comptes privés, on pourrait croire que l’opération de sauvetage déclenchée en novembre dernier a déjà lamentablement échoué.
Au contraire, du moins du point de vue de ses architectes de la BCE, elle a connu un succès retentissant. Il y a une chose que vous devez comprendre à propos du renflouement irlandais. Il n’avait pas pour but de redresser suffisamment les finances du pays pour que le gouvernement puisse recommencer à emprunter sur les marchés obligataires à des taux raisonnables. Deposits in Irish banks. The pattern of the total deposits in all banks operating in Ireland paints a dramatic picture. Since August 2010 deposits have fallen from €893 billion to €577 billion. The fall has been dramatic but it has not been confined to domestic banks. Deposits in other banks (mainly those operating in the IFSC) have also fallen and these have little effect on the domestic economy.
Deposits in domestic banks have fallen from €524 billion to €349 billion and it can be seen that this has mainly occurred in the six covered banks (AIB, BOI, EBS, PTSB, Anglo, INBS). While deposits in non-covered domestic banks (Ulster Bank, National Irish Bank, Investec etc.) have fallen, it has not been as pronounced as in the covered banks. The main driven of the fall in deposits in the covered banks has been the withdrawal of deposits from outside the eurozone. Eurozone deposits have remained low.
Lancement de la NAMA : Rien ne va plus ! Can Ireland's Growth Defy Keynesian Wisdom? Le "tigre celtique" sort de nouveau les griffes. Irlande : une reprise en trompe l'oeil. Gurdgiev: the “Irish recovery miracle” dissected. Minister for Finance Speech to Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform. Mortgages Arrears 2Q 2011 rise. Irish Exports - long term composition. Succès de la rigueur irlandaise. Ireland will be 'Celtic Tiger' again. Bank or Ireland averts nationalisation. Revealed: Ffion Hague's report on Anglo Irish Bank | Business. Ireland in crisis: One in four have a part-time job only | Business.
Les quatre vies du modèle irlandais, par Renaud Lambert. Ireland thrown interest rate crumbs of comfort by EU | Business. What's left to tax in Ireland? Savings | Business. Was banks Guarantee 2008 a subsidy to foreign lenders? 02/07/2011: SMEs and smaller corproate loans rates. French stance puts cut on bailout in jeopardy - Irish, Business.
06-01: Wikileaks: The Ireland Cables | Daily Roundup of Coverage in the Irish Independent | Day Three. Does Ireland have a Future? Ireland's future depends on breaking free from bailout - The Irish Times - Sat, May 07. Honohan happy to take back seat as powerhouses gather - Analysis, Opinion. L’Irlande étranglée à petit feu. Irish GNP warrants, FTW. Don't blame the euro for the ills besetting Ireland's economy | Will Hutton | Comment is free | The Observer. The Irish want to punish builders, bankers and politicians. On Tuesday, they'll get an austerity budget | Business | The Observer. Who’s afraid of the big, bad Bank Run? Allied Irish Banks to pay €40m bonuses despite bailout | Business. Bankruptcy tourism draws debt-stricken Irish | Business.
Ireland downgrade reignites debate on credit ratings agencies | Business. Lloyds Banking Group admits £4.3bn of losses on Irish loans | Business. Urgently wanted: a completely new bank policy (bankrupt zombies need not apply) - Irish, Business. Bondholders' position now looking precarious - Irish, Business. German and French banks call the shots - European, Business. Ireland faces the default option as Europe's leaders talk tough | Business. One domestic consequence of default. Ireland's credit rating slashed five notches | Business. Bank stress tests may not be tough enough | Business.
The Irish Crisis. Mortgage crisis. 2011 Irish Elections. Banks lose €40bn over a month in deposits flight - Irish, Business. 02/03/2011: CB data - Total deposits. €40 Billion Deposit Flight In December Brings Total Irish Bank Run To €110 Billion For 2010 | zero hedge. On declining Irish deposits. Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Bank Funding – The Irish Situation. Playground of rich investors - Personal Finance, Business. Standard and Poor's cuts Ireland's long-term rating to AA- | Business. Irish Bailout. Www.financialregulator.ie/press-area/Documents/Information Release Note and Table Senior and Sub Debt.doc.pdf. Renflouez l’Irlande, pas ses élites | Presseurop – français.
Crise irlandaise 2010.