Belief and Decision

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The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law In the early decades of the 20th Century, there was a big problem with the Universe. “Man is the measure of all things: of things which are, that they are, and of things which are not, that they are not” Protagoras BC 490 – BC 420 Well, not so much the universe, as our ability to measure it. We didn’t know how big it was. The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law
Common Sense 2001 Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22, 2001 The 2001 Symposium on Logical Formalizations of Commonsense Reasoning (Common Sense 2001) was held Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22 at {*style:<b> Common Sense 2001
LineUp Rankings are a popular and universal approach to structuring otherwise unorganized collections of items by computing a rank for each item based on the value of one or more of its attributes. This allows us, for example, to prioritize tasks or to evaluate the performance of products relative to each other. While the visualization of a ranking itself is straightforward, its interpretation is not, because the rank of an item represents only a summary of a potentially complicated relationship between its attributes and those of the other items. It is also common that alternative rankings exist which need to be compared and analyzed to gain insight into how multiple heterogeneous attributes affect the rankings. Advanced visual exploration tools are needed to make this process efficient. LineUp
by Maria Popova Necessary cognitive fortification against propaganda, pseudoscience, and general falsehood. Carl Sagan was many things — a cosmic sage, voracious reader, hopeless romantic, and brilliant philosopher. But above all, he endures as our era’s greatest patron saint of reason and common sense, a master of the vital balance between skepticism and openness. In The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark (public library) — the same indispensable volume that gave us Sagan’s timeless meditation on science and spirituality, published mere months before his death in 1996 — Sagan shares his secret to upholding the rites of reason, even in the face of society’s most shameless untruths and outrageous propaganda. The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking

The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking

The Backfire Effect shows why you can't use facts to win an argument
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Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption Crossposted on Naked Capitalism I just finished reading Nate Silver’s newish book, The Signal and the Noise: Why so many predictions fail – but some don’t. The good news First off, let me say this: I’m very happy that people are reading a book on modeling in such huge numbers – it’s currently eighth on the New York Times best seller list and it’s been on the list for nine weeks. This means people are starting to really care about modeling, both how it can help us remove biases to clarify reality and how it can institutionalize those same biases and go bad.
The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning (Cross-posted at M-Phi) In a recent paper, the eminent psychologist of reasoning P. Johnson-Laird says the following: [T]he claim that naïve individuals can make deductions is controversial, because some logicians and some psychologists argue to the contrary (e.g., Oaksford & Chater, 2007). These arguments, however, make it much harder to understand how human beings were able to devise logic and mathematics if they were incapable of deductive reasoning beforehand.
It is frightening to observe how persistently people reject evidence that presents some truth inconvenient to their deeper beliefs and self identities; excessive fear of vaccines, or fluoride, or nuclear power…denial of climate change, evolution, the age of the earth! Stunning. Some scientists dismiss such thinking as ‘irrational’. Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too | Risk: Reason and Reality Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too | Risk: Reason and Reality
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Divisi2 documentation — Commonsense Computing 2012-03-13 documentation
www.qrg.northwestern.edu/papers/files/q3pf.pdf
QRG Ideas QRG Ideas Qualitative Reasoning Group Northwestern University Ideas Here is a summary of some of the key ideas in our research projects.
The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling (QRM) portal provides software tools (Garp3), documentation and support for users to build and simulate qualitative models. Qualitative Reasoning (QR) is an area of research within Artificial Intelligence (AI) that automates reasoning and problem solving about the (physical) world. It creates non-numerical descriptions of systems and their behaviour, preserving important behavioural properties and qualitative distinctions. Successful application areas include autonomous spacecraft support, failure analysis and on-board diagnosis of vehicle systems, automated generation of control software for photocopiers, conceptual knowledge capture in ecology, and intelligent aids for human learning (Bredeweg & Struss, 2003). Home :: The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling Portal Home :: The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling Portal
Commonsense Reasoning - Erik T. Mueller
Things fall down, not up. You eat breakfast in the morning. If people yell at you, they're probably angry. Common Sense Reasoning Course
[printable version] A humanoid robot is flying economy class on a major airline and is required to "eat" the packaged meal that has been served to it. Like its fellow human travellers, the robot can be assumed to be in a standard seat and to have two arms which function similarly to theirs, with similar restrictions on mobility; e.g. because of the cramped conditions, the robot's elbows have to remain close to its chest. Common Sense Problem Page
The world of game theory is currently on fire. In May, Freeman Dyson at Princeton University and William Press at the University of Texas announced that they had discovered a previously unknown strategy for the game of prisoner’s dilemma which guarantees one player a better outcome than the other. That’s a monumental surprise. The Emerging Revolution in Game Theory
Logics and Calculuses

Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference - Judea Pearl
Bayes' Theorem is a theorem of probability theory originally stated by the Reverend Thomas Bayes. It can be seen as a way of understanding how the probability that a theory is true is affected by a new piece of evidence. It has been used in a wide variety of contexts, ranging from marine biology to the development of "Bayesian" spam blockers for email systems. In the philosophy of science, it has been used to try to clarify the relationship between theory and evidence. Many insights in the philosophy of science involving confirmation, falsification, the relation between science and pseudosience, and other topics can be made more precise, and sometimes extended or corrected, by using Bayes' Theorem. These pages will introduce the theorem and its use in the philosophy of science. Bayes' Theorem: Introduction
Bayesian network A simple Bayesian network. Rain influences whether the sprinkler is activated, and both rain and the sprinkler influence whether the grass is wet. A Bayesian network, Bayes network, belief network, Bayes(ian) model or probabilistic directed acyclic graphical model is a probabilistic graphical model (a type of statistical model) that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG).
trust network
Bayesian Belief Nets
Amos Storkey - Research - Belief Networks
An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe, Richard Carrier Skepticon 4
BayesDB
A Brief History of Decision Support Systems
Decision-making can and must be learned -- new test measures risk intelligence
Reason maintenance
Replication studies: Bad copy
The p value and the base rate fallacy
Scientific method: Statistical errors
Priyamvada Natarajan: How Science Works
Can the Source of Funding for Medical Research Affect the Results? | Guest Blog
Field Tests for Revised Psychiatric Guide Reveal Reliability Problems for Two Major Diagnoses
| LazyTruth
The Death Of Facts In An Age Of 'Truthiness'
Analytical thinking erodes belief in God - science-in-society - 26 April 2012
Chocolate & Red Meat Can Be Bad for Your Science: Why Many Nutrition Studies Are All Wrong | The Crux
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Susanna Siegel, Cognitive Penetrability and Perceptual Justification
‘The Righteous Mind,’ by Jonathan Haidt
Creativity and human reasoning during decision-making
Is Free Will an Illusion? - The Chronicle Review
Value of information
www.hss.caltech.edu/~steve/bechara.pdf
On the reciprocal interaction between believin... [Cogn Neurodyn. 2010
The Divergence of Thought in Science & Philosophy: Could “Complexity” be New Common Ground?
Hypothes.is | The Internet, peer reviewed.
Primary vs. Secondary Sources
SMART 3 - Types of Sources
Reflective argument as design
Argument support
Argument Mapping with Argunet
Argument mapping vs. mind mapping
Prolegomenon to a Theory of Argument Structure
Persuasion
Planet Debate | Judge Philosophies
JudgePhilosophies - home
Home | GreaterDebater
DMS Tutorial - Association rules
Critical thinking

oro.open.ac.uk/22344/1/BuckinghamShum-COMMA2010
Rationale: Tour
assets.rationale.austhink.com/pdf/gettingstartedguide.pdf
Issue-Based Information System
The what and whence of issue-based information systems « Eight to Late
Issuepedia