Belief and Decision

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Stephen Toulmin. Stephen Edelston Toulmin (/ˈtuːlmɪn/; 25 March 1922 – 4 December 2009) was a British philosopher, author, and educator.

Stephen Toulmin

Influenced by Ludwig Wittgenstein, Toulmin devoted his works to the analysis of moral reasoning. Throughout his writings, he sought to develop practical arguments which can be used effectively in evaluating the ethics behind moral issues. His works were later found useful in the field of rhetoric for analyzing rhetorical arguments.

The Toulmin Model of Argumentation, a diagram containing six interrelated components used for analyzing arguments, was considered his most influential work, particularly in the field of rhetoric and communication, and in computer science. The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law. In the early decades of the 20th Century, there was a big problem with the Universe.

The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law

“Man is the measure of all things: of things which are, that they are, and of things which are not, that they are not” Protagoras BC 490 – BC 420 Well, not so much the universe, as our ability to measure it. We didn’t know how big it was. Common Sense 2001. Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22, 2001 The 2001 Symposium on Logical Formalizations of Commonsense Reasoning (Common Sense 2001) was held Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22 at {*style:<b>

Common Sense 2001

LineUp. Rankings are a popular and universal approach to structuring otherwise unorganized collections of items by computing a rank for each item based on the value of one or more of its attributes.

LineUp

This allows us, for example, to prioritize tasks or to evaluate the performance of products relative to each other. While the visualization of a ranking itself is straightforward, its interpretation is not, because the rank of an item represents only a summary of a potentially complicated relationship between its attributes and those of the other items.

It is also common that alternative rankings exist which need to be compared and analyzed to gain insight into how multiple heterogeneous attributes affect the rankings. Advanced visual exploration tools are needed to make this process efficient. The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking. By Maria Popova Necessary cognitive fortification against propaganda, pseudoscience, and general falsehood.

The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking

Carl Sagan was many things — a cosmic sage, voracious reader, hopeless romantic, and brilliant philosopher. But above all, he endures as our era’s greatest patron saint of reason and common sense, a master of the vital balance between skepticism and openness. In The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark (public library) — the same indispensable volume that gave us Sagan’s timeless meditation on science and spirituality, published mere months before his death in 1996 — Sagan shares his secret to upholding the rites of reason, even in the face of society’s most shameless untruths and outrageous propaganda. The Backfire Effect shows why you can't use facts to win an argument.

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Our team is working hard to build products and services with care and in attentive consideration of our principles. However there’s a growing community of developers that are essential to the long term success of open annotation. On this page you can find information about getting involved by contributing your time and skills or through a donation. Donate. Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption. Crossposted on Naked Capitalism I just finished reading Nate Silver’s newish book, The Signal and the Noise: Why so many predictions fail – but some don’t.

Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption

The good news First off, let me say this: I’m very happy that people are reading a book on modeling in such huge numbers – it’s currently eighth on the New York Times best seller list and it’s been on the list for nine weeks. This means people are starting to really care about modeling, both how it can help us remove biases to clarify reality and how it can institutionalize those same biases and go bad. The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning. (Cross-posted at M-Phi) In a recent paper, the eminent psychologist of reasoning P.

The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning

Johnson-Laird says the following: [T]he claim that naïve individuals can make deductions is controversial, because some logicians and some psychologists argue to the contrary (e.g., Oaksford & Chater, 2007). These arguments, however, make it much harder to understand how human beings were able to devise logic and mathematics if they were incapable of deductive reasoning beforehand. Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too. It is frightening to observe how persistently people reject evidence that presents some truth inconvenient to their deeper beliefs and self identities; excessive fear of vaccines, or fluoride, or nuclear power…denial of climate change, evolution, the age of the earth!

Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too

Stunning. Some scientists dismiss such thinking as ‘irrational’. Home · commonsense/conceptnet5 Wiki. Divisi2 documentation — Commonsense Computing 2012-03-13 documentation. Www.qrg.northwestern.edu/papers/files/q3pf.pdf. QRG Ideas. Qualitative Reasoning Group Northwestern University Ideas Here is a summary of some of the key ideas in our research projects.

QRG Ideas

The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling Portal. The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling (QRM) portal provides software tools (Garp3), documentation and support for users to build and simulate qualitative models. Qualitative Reasoning (QR) is an area of research within Artificial Intelligence (AI) that automates reasoning and problem solving about the (physical) world. It creates non-numerical descriptions of systems and their behaviour, preserving important behavioural properties and qualitative distinctions. Successful application areas include autonomous spacecraft support, failure analysis and on-board diagnosis of vehicle systems, automated generation of control software for photocopiers, conceptual knowledge capture in ecology, and intelligent aids for human learning (Bredeweg & Struss, 2003).

Commonsense Reasoning - Erik T. Mueller. Common Sense Reasoning Course. Things fall down, not up. You eat breakfast in the morning. If people yell at you, they're probably angry. Common Sense Problem Page. [printable version] A humanoid robot is flying economy class on a major airline and is required to "eat" the packaged meal that has been served to it. Like its fellow human travellers, the robot can be assumed to be in a standard seat and to have two arms which function similarly to theirs, with similar restrictions on mobility; e.g. because of the cramped conditions, the robot's elbows have to remain close to its chest. The Emerging Revolution in Game Theory. The world of game theory is currently on fire. In May, Freeman Dyson at Princeton University and William Press at the University of Texas announced that they had discovered a previously unknown strategy for the game of prisoner’s dilemma which guarantees one player a better outcome than the other.

That’s a monumental surprise.

Logics and Calculuses

Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference - Judea Pearl. Bayes' Theorem: Introduction. Bayes' Theorem is a theorem of probability theory originally stated by the Reverend Thomas Bayes. It can be seen as a way of understanding how the probability that a theory is true is affected by a new piece of evidence. It has been used in a wide variety of contexts, ranging from marine biology to the development of "Bayesian" spam blockers for email systems. In the philosophy of science, it has been used to try to clarify the relationship between theory and evidence. Many insights in the philosophy of science involving confirmation, falsification, the relation between science and pseudosience, and other topics can be made more precise, and sometimes extended or corrected, by using Bayes' Theorem. These pages will introduce the theorem and its use in the philosophy of science. Bayesian network. Trust network. Bayesian Belief Nets. Amos Storkey - Research - Belief Networks. An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem.

Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe, Richard Carrier Skepticon 4. BayesDB. A Brief History of Decision Support Systems. Decision-making can and must be learned. Reason maintenance. Replication studies: Bad copy. The p value and the base rate fallacy. Scientific method: Statistical errors. Priyamvada Natarajan: How Science Works. Can the Source of Funding for Medical Research Affect the Results? Field Tests for Revised Psychiatric Guide Reveal Reliability Problems for Two Major Diagnoses. The decline effect and the scientific method. LazyTruth. The Death Of Facts In An Age Of 'Truthiness' Analytical thinking erodes belief in God - science-in-society - 26 April 2012.

Chocolate & Red Meat Can Be Bad for Your Science: Why Many Nutrition Studies Are All Wrong. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Susanna Siegel, Cognitive Penetrability and Perceptual Justification. ‘The Righteous Mind,’ by Jonathan Haidt. Creativity and human reasoning during decision-making. Is Free Will an Illusion? - The Chronicle Review. Value of information. The Power of Oratory in the United States. Www.hss.caltech.edu/~steve/bechara.pdf. On the reciprocal interaction between believin... [Cogn Neurodyn. 2010. Refine - Google Refine, a power tool for working with messy data (formerly Freebase Gridworks) The Divergence of Thought in Science & Philosophy: Could “Complexity” be New Common Ground? The Internet, peer reviewed. Primary vs. Secondary Sources. SMART 3 - Types of Sources.

Reflective argument as design. Argument support. Argument map. Argument Mapping with Argunet. Argument mapping vs. mind mapping. Prolegomenon to a Theory of Argument Structure. Persuasion. Judge Philosophies. JudgePhilosophies - home. GreaterDebater. DMS Tutorial - Association rules.

Critical thinking

Oro.open.ac.uk/22344/1/BuckinghamShum-COMMA2010. Rationale: Tour. Assets.rationale.austhink.com/pdf/gettingstartedguide.pdf. Issue-Based Information System. The what and whence of issue-based information systems « Eight to Late. Urban Legends Reference Pages. Issuepedia.