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Belief and Decision

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Stephen Toulmin. Stephen Edelston Toulmin (/ˈtuːlmɪn/; 25 March 1922 – 4 December 2009) was a British philosopher, author, and educator.

Stephen Toulmin

Influenced by Ludwig Wittgenstein, Toulmin devoted his works to the analysis of moral reasoning. Throughout his writings, he sought to develop practical arguments which can be used effectively in evaluating the ethics behind moral issues. His works were later found useful in the field of rhetoric for analyzing rhetorical arguments. The Toulmin Model of Argumentation, a diagram containing six interrelated components used for analyzing arguments, was considered his most influential work, particularly in the field of rhetoric and communication, and in computer science. Biography[edit] After graduating from Cambridge, he was appointed University Lecturer in Philosophy of Science at Oxford University from 1949 to 1954, during which period he wrote a second book, The Philosophy of Science: an Introduction (1953). [edit] The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law. In the early decades of the 20th Century, there was a big problem with the Universe.

The Measurement of the Thing: Thinking About Metrics, Altmetrics and How to Beat Goodhart’s Law

Common Sense 2001. Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22, 2001 The 2001 Symposium on Logical Formalizations of Commonsense Reasoning (Common Sense 2001) was held Sunday, May 20 through Tuesday, May 22 at {*style:<b> Warren Weaver Hall, room 109 251 Mercer St., between 3rd and 4th Streets, LineUp. Rankings are a popular and universal approach to structuring otherwise unorganized collections of items by computing a rank for each item based on the value of one or more of its attributes.


This allows us, for example, to prioritize tasks or to evaluate the performance of products relative to each other. While the visualization of a ranking itself is straightforward, its interpretation is not, because the rank of an item represents only a summary of a potentially complicated relationship between its attributes and those of the other items. It is also common that alternative rankings exist which need to be compared and analyzed to gain insight into how multiple heterogeneous attributes affect the rankings. Advanced visual exploration tools are needed to make this process efficient. In our paper we present a comprehensive analysis of requirements for the visualization of multi-attribute rankings. The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking.

By Maria Popova Carl Sagan was many things — a cosmic sage, voracious reader, hopeless romantic, and brilliant philosopher.

The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking

But above all, he endures as our era’s greatest patron saint of reason and common sense, a master of the vital balance between skepticism and openness. The Backfire Effect shows why you can't use facts to win an argument. Contribute. We’d love your help.


Our team is working hard to build products and services with care and in attentive consideration of our principles. However there’s a growing community of developers that are essential to the long term success of open annotation. On this page you can find information about getting involved by contributing your time and skills or through a donation. Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption. Crossposted on Naked Capitalism I just finished reading Nate Silver’s newish book, The Signal and the Noise: Why so many predictions fail – but some don’t.

Nate Silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending corruption

The good news First off, let me say this: I’m very happy that people are reading a book on modeling in such huge numbers – it’s currently eighth on the New York Times best seller list and it’s been on the list for nine weeks. This means people are starting to really care about modeling, both how it can help us remove biases to clarify reality and how it can institutionalize those same biases and go bad.

As a modeler myself, I am extremely concerned about how models affect the public, so the book’s success is wonderful news. The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning. (Cross-posted at M-Phi) In a recent paper, the eminent psychologist of reasoning P.

The phylogeny and ontogeny of deductive reasoning

Johnson-Laird says the following: [T]he claim that naïve individuals can make deductions is controversial, because some logicians and some psychologists argue to the contrary (e.g., Oaksford & Chater, 2007). Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too. It is frightening to observe how persistently people reject evidence that presents some truth inconvenient to their deeper beliefs and self identities; excessive fear of vaccines, or fluoride, or nuclear power…denial of climate change, evolution, the age of the earth!

Why Some Scientists Are To Blame for Science Denialism Too

Stunning. Some scientists dismiss such thinking as ‘irrational’. Home · commonsense/conceptnet5 Wiki. Divisi2 documentation — Commonsense Computing 2012-03-13 documentation. QRG Ideas. The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling Portal. The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling (QRM) portal provides software tools (Garp3), documentation and support for users to build and simulate qualitative models.

The Qualitative Reasoning and Modelling Portal

Qualitative Reasoning (QR) is an area of research within Artificial Intelligence (AI) that automates reasoning and problem solving about the (physical) world. It creates non-numerical descriptions of systems and their behaviour, preserving important behavioural properties and qualitative distinctions. Successful application areas include autonomous spacecraft support, failure analysis and on-board diagnosis of vehicle systems, automated generation of control software for photocopiers, conceptual knowledge capture in ecology, and intelligent aids for human learning (Bredeweg & Struss, 2003).

Qualitative Reasoning has particularly value for developing, strengthening and further improving education and training on topics dealing with systems and their behaviour. Selected publications. Commonsense Reasoning - Erik T. Mueller. Common Sense Reasoning Course. Things fall down, not up.

Common Sense Reasoning Course

You eat breakfast in the morning. If people yell at you, they're probably angry. One of the reasons that computers seem dumber than humans is that they don't have common sense -- a myriad of simple facts about everyday life and the ability to make use of that knowledge easily when appropriate. Common Sense Problem Page. [printable version] The Emerging Revolution in Game Theory. The world of game theory is currently on fire. In May, Freeman Dyson at Princeton University and William Press at the University of Texas announced that they had discovered a previously unknown strategy for the game of prisoner’s dilemma which guarantees one player a better outcome than the other.

That’s a monumental surprise.

Logics and Calculuses

Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference - Judea Pearl. Bayes' Theorem: Introduction. Bayes' Theorem is a theorem of probability theory originally stated by the Reverend Thomas Bayes. It can be seen as a way of understanding how the probability that a theory is true is affected by a new piece of evidence. It has been used in a wide variety of contexts, ranging from marine biology to the development of "Bayesian" spam blockers for email systems.

In the philosophy of science, it has been used to try to clarify the relationship between theory and evidence. Many insights in the philosophy of science involving confirmation, falsification, the relation between science and pseudosience, and other topics can be made more precise, and sometimes extended or corrected, by using Bayes' Theorem. These pages will introduce the theorem and its use in the philosophy of science. Begin by having a look at the theorem, displayed below. Bayesian network. A simple Bayesian network. Rain influences whether the sprinkler is activated, and both rain and the sprinkler influence whether the grass is wet. A Bayesian network, Bayes network, belief network, Bayes(ian) model or probabilistic directed acyclic graphical model is a probabilistic graphical model (a type of statistical model) that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Trust network. Bayesian Belief Nets.

Amos Storkey - Research - Belief Networks. Belief Networks and Probabilistic Graphical Models Belief networks (Bayes Nets, Bayesian Networks) are a vital tool in probabilistic modelling and Bayesian methods. An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. Bayes’ theorem was the subject of a detailed article. Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe, Richard Carrier Skepticon 4. BayesDB. A Brief History of Decision Support Systems. Decision-making can and must be learned. (Medical Xpress) -- Tests exist for evaluating personality, intelligence and memory. Reason maintenance. Replication studies: Bad copy. For many psychologists, the clearest sign that their field was in trouble came, ironically, from a study about premonition. Daryl Bem, a social psychologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, showed student volunteers 48 words and then abruptly asked them to write down as many as they could remember.

Next came a practice session: students were given a random subset of the test words and were asked to type them out. The p value and the base rate fallacy. You’ve already seen that p values are hard to interpret. Getting a statistically insignificant result doesn’t mean there’s no difference. Scientific method: Statistical errors. Priyamvada Natarajan: How Science Works. We hear a lot about American children's poor performance in science.

Can the Source of Funding for Medical Research Affect the Results? Field Tests for Revised Psychiatric Guide Reveal Reliability Problems for Two Major Diagnoses. The decline effect and the scientific method. LazyTruth. The Death Of Facts In An Age Of 'Truthiness' Analytical thinking erodes belief in God - science-in-society - 26 April 2012. Chocolate & Red Meat Can Be Bad for Your Science: Why Many Nutrition Studies Are All Wrong. Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Susanna Siegel, Cognitive Penetrability and Perceptual Justification. ‘The Righteous Mind,’ by Jonathan Haidt. Creativity and human reasoning during decision-making. Is Free Will an Illusion? - The Chronicle Review. Value of information. The Power of Oratory in the United States. On the reciprocal interaction between believin... [Cogn Neurodyn. 2010. Refine - Google Refine, a power tool for working with messy data (formerly Freebase Gridworks) The Divergence of Thought in Science & Philosophy: Could “Complexity” be New Common Ground?

The Internet, peer reviewed. Primary vs. Secondary Sources. SMART 3 - Types of Sources. Reflective argument as design. Argument support. Argument map. Argument Mapping with Argunet. Argument mapping vs. mind mapping. Prolegomenon to a Theory of Argument Structure. Persuasion. Judge Philosophies. JudgePhilosophies - home. GreaterDebater. DMS Tutorial - Association rules.

Critical thinking Rationale: Tour. Issue-Based Information System. The what and whence of issue-based information systems « Eight to Late. Urban Legends Reference Pages. Issuepedia.