Bad Samples. A good poll story begins with a good poll. At the heart of a good poll is a randomly selected representative sample of the target population. Unfortunately, bad polls and bad samples are everywhere, and stories based on those flawed polls find their way on air or into print with dismaying frequency. One reason is that it’s hard and sometimes prohibitively expensive to collect a random or representative sample.
Instead, some researchers use convenience samples. One common type of convenience sample produces surveys that researchers call self-selected opinion polls, or SLOP surveys. As the name suggests, the sample in a SLOP survey is not selected randomly. Researchers have learned, often to their great embarrassment, that these types of samples often produce flawed results. The Internet is awash with SLOP polls that invite people to answer a question and then view the results. people.wku.edu/holli.drummond/first%20page/classes/strategies%20of%20social%20research/example%20of%20bad%20survey%20questions.pdf. Five Reasons There Are Bad Polls.
This morning, CBS and the New York Times announced excitedly that their new swing-state poll (conducted by Quinnipiac University) in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey showed a substantial margin for Barack Obama in all three. The problem: The poll’s results are preposterous. We know this not because it shows Obama leading but because its “internals” are hilariously out of whack in relation to vote totals in 2008 and 2010. For example: The poll has the president winning among independent voters in Pennsylvania by 22 points, 58-36. It is difficult to find state-by-state exit poll data from 2008, but in that triumphant year for Obama, he won independent voters nationwide by 6. 2008 exit polls had Obama winning by about the same margin in Pennsylvania—but in 2010, exit-poll data found Republicans winning the independent vote nationwide by 18 points. Could that have simply swung back all the way to 2008 numbers in Pennsylvania? All but impossible. So why didn’t they? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Pew Research Center | Nonpartisan, non-advocacy public opinion polling and demographic research. Harris Vault. PollingReport.com. As 2014 brings new state laws, a look at public opinion on the issues. Every new year means adding thousands of new state laws to the books. This year’s wide range includes everything from tanning bed age limits (Illinois), to a new ban on selling shark fins (Delaware).
While most new laws represent incremental change, sometimes state laws can also signal broader movement on a public policy issue or indicate a regional or demographic shift in public opinion. We took a look at a few of the new state laws that go into effect Jan. 1 and the national public opinion on the related issues. 1 In 2014, Colorado will become the first state to allow the recreational sale of marijuana. A Pew Research Center survey in April this year found that, for the first time, a majority of Americans (52%) think marijuana use should be legalized. 2 Four states, all located in the Northeast, will raise the minimum wage on Jan. 1 to at least 75 cents more than the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour.