New insights emerge on what drives long-term climatic trends. Sources and sinks From the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA – SANTA BARBARA For the entire history of our species, humans have lived on a planet capped by a chunk of ice at each pole. But Earth has been ice-free for about 75 percent of the time since complex life first appeared. This variation in background climate, between partly glaciated and ice-free, has puzzled geologists for decades. Now a team of scientists led by UC Santa Barbara’s Francis Macdonald has published a study suggesting that tectonic activity may be the culprit. “There’ve been a few hypotheses but no agreements as to why we have warmer or colder climates on these very long timescales,” said Macdonald, a professor in the Department of Earth Science.
And when Macdonald says “long timescales,” he’s talking about 10 million-year periods, at a minimum. On any scale, though, the primary agent of climate change is carbon dioxide (CO2). The debate among geologists is whether sources or sinks affect the climate more. From Eurekalert. Weird science: Tectonics in the tropics trigger Earth’s ice ages, study finds. Major tectonic collisions near the equator have caused three ice ages in the last 540 million years Over the last 540 million years, the Earth has weathered three major ice ages — periods during which global temperatures plummeted, producing extensive ice sheets and glaciers that have stretched beyond the polar caps.
Now scientists at MIT, the University of California at Santa Barbara, and the University of California at Berkeley have identified the likely trigger for these ice ages. In a study published in Science, the team reports that each of the last three major ice ages were preceded by tropical “arc-continent collisions” — tectonic pileups that occurred near the Earth’s equator, in which oceanic plates rode up over continental plates, exposing tens of thousands of kilometers of oceanic rock to a tropical environment. The scientists say that the heat and humidity of the tropics likely triggered a chemical reaction between the rocks and the atmosphere.
A tropical trigger Like this: New Papers: Seismic Activity Explains 1979-2016 Temperatures, ENSO Events Better Than CO2. Within the last year, Dr. Arthur Viterito (geography professor) has published multiple scientific papers documenting the significant correlation (r=0.80) between the seismic activity changes in the Earth’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA) and both El Niño events and global temperatures.
The HGFA/global temperature correlation has been found to be stronger than the correlation for CO2 concentration changes (r=0.74) for recent decades (1979-2016). Other recent research has provided further support for the significant influence of seismic activity (i.e., there is a very high correlation [r=0.935] between geothermal flux and North Magnetic Dip Pole movement). These robust and well-documented seismic activity associations have led Dr. Viterito to call for a reconsideration of the paradigm that says variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations drive changes in global temperatures. Viterito, 2016 Viterito, 2017 Viterito, 2017. The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming - Principia Scientific International. Published on Written by Arthur Viterito Abstract The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states with high confidence that the warming of global temperatures since 1901 has been driven by increased radiative forcing.
The gases responsible for this enhanced forcing are ‘greenhouse gases’ of anthropogenic origin, and include carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons. The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change has challenged these findings and concludes that the forcing from greenhouse gases is minimal and diminishing. This study will show that increasing seismic activity for the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA), an indicator of increasing geothermal forcing, is highly correlated with average global temperatures from 1979 to 2015 (r = 0.785). Introduction The prevailing thought in the scientific community is that human-induced alterations to the earth-atmosphere system are the primary drivers of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries. New Paper Finds That Even Seismic Activity Correlates Better With Warming Than CO2! By P Gosselin on 19. June 2016 The correlation between seismic activity (geothermal flux) as a natural mechanism in the 1979 to 2015 global warming is stronger than the correlation with carbon dioxide during the same period.
Hat-tip: Kenneth Richard Viterito, 2016 The Correlation Of Seismic Activity And Recent Global WarmingThe latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states with high confidence that the warming of global temperatures since 1901 has been driven by increased radiative forcing. The gases responsible for this enhanced forcing are ‘greenhouse gases’ of anthropogenic origin, and include carbon dioxide, methane, and halocarbons. The paper concludes that the world should wait until all of the climate system is understood before enacting laws to curb GHG emissions: To ameliorate the problems of rising global temperatures, legislative and taxing initiatives are currently being proposed and evaluated by governing bodies around the world. Arctic and Geothermal Activity.
Greenland--Geothermal Influences of Ice Sheet Melting. Antarctic--Geothermal Activity.
Spot The Volcano, 1815 Edition. Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach It’s been a while since I played “Spot The Volcano”. The premise of the game is that the decrease in temperatures from volcanic eruptions is nowhere near as large as people claim. So I ask people to see if they can identify when a volcano erupted based on the temperature records of the time. Now, I say that the main reason the temperature drop from volcanic eruptions is so small is that when we get a reduction in downwelling radiation from any cause, the equatorial oceans start to cool. When that happens the clouds form later in the day, allowing in more sunshine. With that in mind, I thought I’d take a look to see what records we have for the largest volcanic eruption in modern times. So I took the records for the period during which the Tambora eruption occurred, and I “standardized” them so that they all had an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Figure 1. Figure 2. You can see the problem.
So when was the eruption? Figure 3. W. New Explanation For Missing Global Warming? Scientists Claim Extratropical Volcanoes Underestimated! Readers should note that among climate modelers volcanoes and atmospheric aerosols have been a favorite way of fudging climate models to explain away inconvenient cooling periods that weren’t supposed to happen in a system that is supposed to be dominated by trace gas CO2. ======================================================= Study shows surprisingly strong cooling after volcanic eruptions in mid and high latitudes Sarychev volcano (Russia’s Kuril Islands, northeast of Japan) in an early stage of eruption on June 12, 2009.
Image: NASA GEOMAR, 28 January 2019 / Kiel, Oslo. Volcanic impact on climate significantly upgraded In recent decades, extratropical eruptions including Kasatochi (Alaska, USA, 2008) and Sarychev Peak (Russia, 2009) have injected sulfur into the lower stratosphere. Extratropical eruptions actually cool more than tropical eruptions The recent extratropical eruptions, which had minimal but measurable effects on the climate, fit this picture. Reference: Toohey, M., K. Revising the history of big, climate-altering volcanic eruptions. Discovery Of Massive Volcanic CO2 Emissions Discredits Global Warming Theory. Volcanoes and Ozone: Their Interactive Effect on Climate Change | Watts Up With That? Guest essay by David Bennett Laing, Asst. Prof.of Geology, Univ. of Maine (retired) Two different styles of volcanic eruption appear to have been the principal determinants of climate change throughout geologic time.
The very fact that opinions on climate change could have become as polarized as they have, even in scientific circles, suggests we may still have much to learn. Despite the best efforts of many of the world’s brightest minds, and the claims of some that “the science is settled,” climatic enigmas still persist. For the past nine years, Peter Langdon Ward has been working steadily in retirement from his career as a geophysicist and volcanologist with the US Geological Survey to try to demystify some of these enigmas.
Two years ago, I joined my old friend and colleague in his quest. Global Warming and Global Cooling Related to Ozone Depletion Panel 3:Effusive volcanoes emit chlorine and bromine, which deplete ozone, leading to global warming. GISP2 Volcanic Sulfate From 9 to 16 Ka. President Jefferson Meets Mount Tambora. Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments of my last post entitled “Spot The Volcano, 1815 Edition” someone mentioned that Thomas Jefferson had commented on what is often called the “Year Without A Summer”. This was the summer of the year 1816, one year after the eruption of Mt.
Tambora in Indonesia, which occurred in April of 1815. Some research turned up Jefferson’s weather notebook entitled “Analysis of Weather Memorandum Book, January 1817”. All of the data in this post is from his analysis. 1817. In other words, a good and careful observer. Since our interest is in the summers, the first graph that I made up from Jefferson’s data is of the May to September growing season in Monticello (see below for growing seasons). Figure 1. Now, Figure 1 shows some interesting things. Jefferson also recorded some other interesting weather data. Figure 2. The year 1816 was not at all unusual as regards to frost.
How about rainfall? Figure 3. Figure 4. My warmest regards to all, w. Like this: Just another bunch of old volcanoes we didn’t know about, found off Tasmania. A few weeks ago a CSIRO boat mapped out a string of 3 kilometer high seamounts that no one knew about. They are 400km east of Tasmania and sit in water 5 km deep (so no one is going to run into them, even in a military sub.) But remember, even though 80% of the ocean floor is unmapped, and we haven’t even logged, named or noticed thousands of volcanoes, we *know* that they are not heating the ocean, changing ocean currents, or affecting our climate. Skillless models tell us so. (Pay us your money). h/t Thanks to Tallbloke Huge underwater volcano chain discovered off Tasmania Denise Chow, Euronews “We’ve only mapped a tiny fraction of the ocean floor,” said Andrew Fisher, a marine geologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who was not involved in the new discovery. More than 80 percent of the ocean remains unmapped and unexplored, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The original press release, October 8, 2018. Rating: 9.5/10 (77 votes cast) Plate climatology. Stacking Up Volcanoes. Inconvenient study: Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate – models may be wrong. New data show strikingly regular patterns, from weeks to eons This topographic map of Earth’s ocean floor in the Atlantic ocean reveals thousands of sub-oceanic volcanoes along the mid-Atlantic ridge. Source: Vast ranges of volcanoes hidden under the oceans are presumed by scientists to be the gentle giants of the planet, oozing lava at slow, steady rates along mid-ocean ridges. But a new study shows that they flare up on strikingly regular cycles, ranging from two weeks to 100,000 years–and, that they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year. The pulses–apparently tied to short- and long-term changes in earth’s orbit, and to sea levels–may help trigger natural climate swings. Scientists have already speculated that volcanic cycles on land emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide might influence climate; but up to now there was no evidence from submarine volcanoes.
Enter volcanoes. Maya Tolstoy Abstract: Unusual Heat Anomaly Detected In The Gulf Of Mexico (Video) Do 40,000 volcanoes matter? The world is watching one volcano in Bali, but it’s sobering to think there may be hundreds of others going off, and almost certainly ones we don’t even know about. The article Is the Bali volcano making us warmer or cooler?
By William F Jasper, reminded me of Ian Plimers words about there being squillions of undersea volcanoes so I found the 2007 paper, by Hillier, that tried to count them. Trying being the appropriate word. Volcanoes are biggish things, but when they are under one or two kilometers of water they are hard to hear, hard to see, and, by crikey, we know more about the moon than the bottom of the Marinara, and it’s only 11km “away”. People are constantly discovering new volcanoes, like a 3,000m one off Indonesia that no one realized was there til 2010. Not only can we not predict when volcanoes will erupt, we don’t even know how many there are The scope of our ignorance on the sea floor is really something. So here is the closest thing we have to kind of being “A Map”.
J. Geoneutrinos & understanding Earth heat flux | Principia Scientific International. Climate Change Linked to Continental Geological Faults | Principia Scientific International. Volcanic Legends Keep Erupting | Watts Up With That? Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Once again, Anthony has highlighted a paper claiming that volcanoes have great power over the global temperature. Indeed, they go so far as to say: From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years, a finding supported by model results.SOURCE: Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming, Andrew P.
Schurer et al, hereinafter Schurer2015, paywalled here. Here we go again, sez I, another excuse for the current temperature plateau … and right out of the box, I note that we are dealing with a “reconstruction”, with findings that are “verified by model results”. Be still, my beating heart … So I thought I’d give their claim a looksee by comparing their recent (post-1800) eruption dates with the Berkeley Earth land temperature record. Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. There are several things of interest. Conclusions? Best to all, w. Enjoy. Studies Suggest Volcanic Activity Had Profound Long-Term Impact On Past Climate …CO2 Is No Explanation - Principia Scientific International.
Published on Written by Kenneth Richard Guest author Kenneth Richard examines the impacts of past volcanoes on climate. The findings will surely be controversial.============================================ Volcanic activity explains long-term climate change better than CO2 By Kenneth Richard Long-term (decadal and even centennial-scale) volcanic influence on climate has recently gained more and more attention in the scientific literature. When specifying the factors contributing to decadal and centennial-scale temperature changes, solar activity and greenhouse gases are usually thought to top the list. Back in 2013, Rosenthal et al. published a paper in Science on millennial-scale ocean heat content variations (Pacific).
In a Rosenthal et al 2013 paper, he writes: “We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. They write: 1. Deep-sea volcanic vents discovered in chilly waters of Southern Ocean -- ScienceDaily. Scientists aboard the Royal Research Ship James Cook have discovered a new set of deep-sea volcanic vents in the chilly waters of the Southern Ocean. The discovery is the fourth made by the research team in three years, which suggests that deep-sea vents may be more common in our oceans than previously thought. Using an underwater camera system, the researchers saw slender mineral spires three metres tall, with shimmering hot water gushing from their peaks, and gossamer-like white mats of bacteria coating their sides. The vents are at a depth of 520 metres in a newly-discovered seafloor crater close to the South Sandwich Islands, a remote group of islands around 500 kilometres south-east of South Georgia.
"When we caught the first glimpse of the vents, the excitement was almost overwhelming," says Leigh Marsh, a University of Southampton PhD student who was on scientific watch at the time of the discovery.