Surprising Parallels Found Between Solar Activity And Hurricane Development. Cat 5 Hurricane “Dorian” showed a development parallel to a solar storm lasting several days, which reached the earth from 27 August to 4 September 2019. By Snowfan The strength of particle radiation of a solar storm is given as a three-hour value in the Kp index, the daily value is called the A index. The following table shows the development of hurricane DORIAN compared to solar activity in the daily values of the A index. Source: The parallels are astonishing: It would seem DORIAN was “fed” by the strength of the solar storm in its development, especially in its peak around September 1, 2019.
It’s well known, of course: correlation isn’t causation. So the question arises: How could solar storms influence earthly hurricanes? A commentator made the following interesting comments on hurricane activity in 2017 (including IRMA), and 2018 in the North Atlantic and a connection of solar activity with regard to changes in the jet stream: Snowfan 2015. 55 New (2019) Scientific Papers Link Solar Activity To Climate Change. By Kenneth Richard on 3. October 2019 In the last few years, hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published linking changes in solar activity to Earth’s climate (2016, 2017, 2018).
The evidence for a robust Sun-Climate connection continues to accumulate in 2019. When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation. The disagreement is so chasmic and the mechanisms are so poorly understood that scientists’ estimates of the influence of direct solar irradiance forcing between the 17th century and today can range between a negligible +0.1 W m-2 to a very robust +6 W m-2 (Egorova et al., 2018; Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018). “There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. CO2 Climate Forcing In The Earth System Context: The Honey Bee Versus The Sun.
Over the course of a 12 hour period on a cloudless day, 500 Wm-2 of solar energy pummels past the ocean surface to depths of 20 or more meters, warming up the first 2 meters of the ocean by 2.0 K. Image Source: Fairall et al., 1996 In contrast, the infrared radiation absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by CO2 molecules cannot penetrate past the ocean’s 0.1 to 1 mm “thick” skin layer. Image Source: Skeptical Science blog Clouds and Ocean Domination How much solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth system’s heat reservoir – the oceans, where 93% of the globe’s heat energy resides – is significantly determined by changes in decadal-scale cloud cover.
Direct short wave and long wave (i.e., “greenhouse effect”) forcing from the reduction or increase in cloud cover dominates as the modulator of Earth’s energy budget changes. Image Source: Ramanathan et al., 1989, Wielicki et al., 2002 Image Source(s): Ogurtsov et al., 2012 , Pinker et al., 2005, Goode and Palle, 2007. Evidence of the 11 year Solar Cycle in the Stratosphere. Solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume.
By Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years. Abstract While there is ample evidence that variations in solar input to high altitudes is a “pacemaker” for the alternating glacial and interglacial periods over the past ~ 2.7 my, there are two major difficulties with the standard Milankovitch theory: (i) The different cadence of the glacial periods prior to the MPT (41 ky) and after the MPT (88 to 110 ky). Mid-Pleistocene Transition. (ii) The reason why so many precessional maxima in solar input to high latitudes fail to produce terminations in the post-MPT era; yet every fourth or fifth one does produce a rather sudden termination.
Raymo et al. (2006) proposed an explanation for the first difficulty in terms of global ice volume resulting from the sum of an out of phase growth and decline of northern and southern ice sheets. Introduction Figure 1. The Last Five ice ages. Satellite Evidence Affirms Solar Activity Drove ‘A Significant Percentage’ Of Recent Warming. By Kenneth Richard on 25. March 2019 In a new paper, two astrophysicists shred the IPCC-preferred and model-based PMOD solar data set and affirm the ACRIM, which is rooted in observation and shows an increase in total solar irradiance (TSI) during the 1980-2000 period.
They suggest a “significant percentage” of recent climate change has been solar-driven. I. . • “The PMOD rationale for using models to alter the Nimbus7/ERB data was to compensate for the sparsity of the ERBS/ERBE data and conform their gap results more closely to the proxy predictions of solar emission line models of TSI behavior.” • “PMOD’s modifications of the published ACRIM and ERB TSI records are questionable because they are based on conforming satellite observational data to proxy model predictions.” • “PMOD misinterpreted and erroneously corrected ERB results for an instrument power down event.” II. . • “[O]ur scientific knowledge could be improved by excluding the more flawed record from the composite.
III. IV. V. VI. It’s the gradient, stupid! How does the Sun drive climate change? Guest Post by Javier The dispute between scholars that favor a periodical interpretation of climate changes, mostly based on astronomical causes, and those that prefer non-periodical Earth-based explanations has a long tradition that can be traced to the catastrophism-uniformitarianism dispute and how the theory of ice ages (now termed glaciations) fitted in. Prior to the scientific proposal of ice ages in 1834, most scholars that cared about the issue believed that the Earth had been progressively cooling from a hot start, as tropical fossils at high latitudes appeared to support. By 1860 scholars had been convinced by evidence that not one but several glaciations had taken place in the distant past. By then scientists trying to explain the cause of past glaciations were split in two. In the 1960’s and early 70’s Milankovitch theory was discredited with only a handful of followers left.
Do-It-Yourself: The solar variability effect on climate Na, S.
Notch-Delay Solar Theory. Solar Activity and Regional Climate Patterns. My experience at the German Bundestag's Environment Committee in a pre-COP24 discussion | ScienceBits. Last week I had the opportunity to talk in front of the Environment committee of the German Bundestag. It was quite an interesting experience, and frankly, something I would have considered unlikely before receiving the invitation. It was in fact the first time a climate "skeptic" like myself appeared behind those doors in many years. As I understand, the committee was used to inviting Prof. Schellnhuber, formerly the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The earliest flight from Israel that day would have brought me to the Bundestag awfully close to the beginning of the discussion. The next day I showed up at the committee. As I entered the committee room and sat down, Levermann past by and told me in hebrew, אתה יודע שאתה טועה (You know that you're wrong).
The discussion started with each one of the experts allowed to talk for 3 minutes. Here is what I prepared (what I said was pretty close but not all verbatim): The second round came from Beutin. The Next Grand Minimum – To examine the social and economic impacts of the next Grand Solar Minimum – See About. First detection of climate change on another planet? Satellite data reveals Venus is going through a change in it’s atmosphere, and the driver seems to be the sun. From the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) part of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) comes this intriguing bit of research using data from the Akatsuki satellite. False color image of the nightside of Venus captured with the IR2 camera on Akatsuki at 1.735-µm (blue) and 2.26-µm (red) and mix of the two (green). On the nightside of Venus, IR2 observes infrared light coming from the lower atmosphere through clouds, and the shadow of the clouds can be seen in the image.
Here, bright and dark are reversed to show clouds in whitish color. Akatsuki may have discovered why Venus’s atmosphere rotates so fast. As a planet nearly the same size and mass as the Earth, Venus is an essential study for understanding the range of possible conditions on rocky planets. Yet perhaps the strangest feature of the Venusian atmosphere is its speed. Abstract Like this: In "Space" Church of Sol: The Solar Cycle's Potential Impact on Weather and Climate by Bob Henson. Sun cycle and winter weather basically a mirage? | Oceans Govern Climate. 92 New Papers (2018) Link Solar Forcing To Climate . . . Some Predict Solar-Induced Global Cooling By 2030! By Kenneth Richard on 27. December 2018 Image Source: Abdussamatov, 2012 When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation.
The disagreement is so chasmic and the mechanisms are so poorly understood that scientists’ estimates of the influence of direct solar irradiance forcing between the 17th century and today can range between a negligible +0.1 W m-2 to a very robust +6 W m-2 (Egorova et al., 2018; Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018). “There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate.” Image Source: Ma et al., 2018. It’s the gradient, stupid! How does the Sun drive climate change?
Guest Post by Javier The dispute between scholars that favor a periodical interpretation of climate changes, mostly based on astronomical causes, and those that prefer non-periodical Earth-based explanations has a long tradition that can be traced to the catastrophism-uniformitarianism dispute and how the theory of ice ages (now termed glaciations) fitted in. Prior to the scientific proposal of ice ages in 1834, most scholars that cared about the issue believed that the Earth had been progressively cooling from a hot start, as tropical fossils at high latitudes appeared to support.
By 1860 scholars had been convinced by evidence that not one but several glaciations had taken place in the distant past. By then scientists trying to explain the cause of past glaciations were split in two. In the 1960’s and early 70’s Milankovitch theory was discredited with only a handful of followers left. Do-It-Yourself: The solar variability effect on climate Na, S. The Millennial Turning Point – Solar Activity and the Coming Cooling. Guest opinion by Dr. Norman Page When analyzing complex systems with multiple interacting variables it is useful to note the advice of Enrico Fermi who reportedly said “never make something more accurate than absolutely necessary”.
My recent paper presented a simple heuristic approach to climate science which plausibly proposed that a Millennial Turning Point (MTP) and peak in solar activity was reached in 1991. Zharkova et al 2015 DOI:10.10381/srep15683 says ” Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. “The Wu et al. (2018) reconstruction of the sunspot number since 6755 BC combined with modern Multimessenger proxies covering the 19th century until today goes a long way to reconcile the cosmogenic solar activity record with recent assessments of long-term solar activity.”
This is entirely consistent with my approach and forecasts. Like this: NASA hides page saying the Sun was the primary climate driver, and clouds and particles are more important than greenhouse gases. ZeroHedge asks: What the hell are NASA Hiding? The NASA site used to have a page titled “What are the primary forcings of the Earth system? “. In 2010 this page said that the Sun is the major driver of Earth’s climate, that it controls all the major aspects, and we may be on the cusp of an ice age. Furthermore NASA Science said things like clouds, albedo and aerosol behaviour can have more powerful cooling effects that outdo the warming effect of CO2.
Today that page says Share the science and stay connected, and “Access Denied”. Whatever you do, don’t tell the world that NASA says the Sun is more important than CO2. The Wayback Machine captured the same NASA “Primary Climate Forcings” link in 2010. Click to enlarge. Here’s the text from the original page (my bolding). NASA 2010: What are the primary forcings of the Earth system? The Sun is the primary forcing of Earth’s climate system. Earth’s orbit around and orientation toward the Sun change over spans of many thousands of years. Dr. Indrani Roy on Natural Climate Factors. New paper connects upper stratospheric ozone changes to the solar cycle. The authors write in this plain language summary: Changes in the output of the Sun are thought to influence surface weather and climate through a set of processes initiated by the enhancement of upper stratosphere (32‐48 km) ozone. In order to understand and assess the solar impact on the climate system, it is important that models reproduce the observed solar signal.
However, the recommended dataset for comparison with climate models remains disputed. We use newly improved observed ozone composites to determine both why there is disagreement between composites, and which is most likely to be correct. We find that artefact‐corrected composites represent the response better than those based on SBUV data alone. An idealised chemistry climate model experiment, and simulations considering historical meteorological conditions, both support this conclusion. The results will be important for assessing the solar signal in currently active and future assessments of chemistry climate models (e.g.
Dr. Indrani Roy on Solar and Climate Cycles. The last solar eclipse was in 2017. The totality in the picture lasted a little more than 2 minutes, while the process lasted about 2.5 hours. One of the great disputes in climate research is between those (IPCC) who dismiss solar cycles as a factor in climate change and those who see correlations in the past and keep seeking to understand the mechanisms. To be clear, there is considerable agreement that earth’s atmosphere can and does reduce or increase the amount of incoming solar energy (albedo effect), thereby contributing to surface warming or cooling. The science and research into the “global dimming and brightening” is discussed in the post Nature’s Sunscreen. The above image of the eclipse is intended to remind us that humans down through history have been terrified of the sun going dark because they knew intuitively that no sun means no life.
The book is behind a paywall, but the abstract and chapter headings indicate a comprehensive approach. Chapter Titles Comment on Dr. Dr. IPCC’s Kangaroo Science…To Ignore Over 600 Papers Confirming Major Solar Impact On Climate. The upcoming 6th IPCC Sixth Assessment Report will be a “comprehensive assessment of the science” related to climate change and published in 2022. However, don’t expect it to be “comprehensive” at all as hundreds of scientific publications showing profound impacts by sun and oceans will go ignored. Climate science has turned into a religion that centers on a single act of faith. Human CO2 is changing our climate. In the past it was always understood that climate was impacted by a vast array of factors, such oceanic cycles, solar cycles, aerosols, cloud cover, etc. to name a few. Images: NASA (public domain) But over the years tremendous resources have been poured into an effort aimed at pinning the blame on man-made greenhouse gases.
Despite global temperatures having fallen by more than 0.5°C over the past two years due to the ending of an El Nino event, IPCC scientists continue to insist that trace gas CO2 is the main driver behi9nd climate warming. Research showing sun’s impact piles up. Why the Sun Controls the Climate and CO2 is Meaningless – CO2 is Life. 100+ Papers – Sun Drives Climate. 3 New (2018) Papers Link Modern Warming And Past Cooling Periods To High, Low Solar Activity. Evidence the Sun may have turned “blue” during 1450s-1460s. Chinese researchers claim they discovered a 500 year solar cycle that may affect climate. Scientists Find Sun-Driven Temperature Changes Led CO2 Changes By 1300-6500 Years In The Ancient Past. A Short Summary of Soon, Connolly and Connolly, 2015; “Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th Century” | Andy May Petrophysicist.
The Sun-Climate Connection: Over 100 Scientific Papers From 2016 Link Solar Forcing To Climate Change. Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says - Principia Scientific International. Scientists Find Climate’s ‘Cause Of Causes’…Highest Solar Activity In 4000 Years Just Ended…Cooling Begins In 2025. Claim: Solar activity not a key cause of climate change, study shows | Watts Up With That? 20 New Scientific Papers Link Modern Climate Trends To Solar Forcing. NASA: The chill of solar minimum is being felt in our atmosphere – cooling trend seen. The longest stretch of a blank sun since 2010 — Vencore Weather. Current Solar Cycle 3rd All-Time Weakest …Next Cycle Likely To Be Weaker! Number Of Sunspots Dwindling Faster Than Expected, NASA Says. A Gleissberg Solar Minimum? | Watts Up With That? As Earth Warms Up, The Sun Is Remarkably Quiet | Category 6™ Solar Minimum Could Bring A 'Space Age Record' For Cold Temperatures In Upper Atmosphere, NASA Scientist Warns - The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)The Global Warming Policy Forum.
Solar Cycle 25 Will Not Lead To Cooling Of Global Temps, Study Predicts. SSN Prediction by Vukcevic. New paper from Judith Lean estimates Solar Irradiance Since 850 CE. NASA - Top Story - NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE - March 20, 2003. Solar variability and the Earth’s climate | Andy May Petrophysicist. Solar Activity Over Last 9000 Years Sheds New Light On Natural Variability. How constant is the “solar constant?” Better Data for Modeling the Sun’s Influence on Climate. Climate Change, due to Solar Variability or Greenhouse Gases? Part A. Do-It-Yourself: The solar variability effect on climate. Do-It-Yourself: Solar variability effect on climate. Part II. Cosmic Rays and Cloud Formation. The cosmoclimatology theory. Scientists Have Found The ‘Missing Link’ From Sunspot Activity To Cosmic Rays-Clouds To Climate Change. Svensmark publishes: Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth’s cloud cover | Watts Up With That?
Cosmic Rays and Climate | ScienceBits. The Milky Way Galaxy's Spiral Arms and Ice-Age Epochs and the Cosmic Ray Connection | ScienceBits. New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover. Robust relationship between solar wind speed and North Atlantic Oscillation discovered | Watts Up With That? ENSO caused by high tidal pulses and by solar activity. | Cooling News. Another Climate Scientist Finds A ‘Robust Solar Signal on Climate’ With Solar-ENSO ‘Phase-Locking’ Solar Cycle Driven Ocean Temperature Variations. New study suggests a link between the 11 year solar cycle and the tidal effects of Venus, the Earth and Jupiter | Watts Up With That? Solar minimum and ENSO prediction.
The New Sunspot Data … and Satellite Sea Levels | Watts Up With That? Land Of The Warming Sun: Japan Has Seen Solar Radiation Rise 10% Over Past 60 Years! Scottish Sunspots. Essay: Solar cycle wave frequency linked to jet stream changes. Hunger Stones and Tree Ring evidence suggests solar cycle influence on climate. Solar Cycles and the Equatorial Trough: An Alternate Conceptual Model. The Climate Control Knob. Long Temperature Records and Sunspot Minima. Was Extreme Ultraviolet an Andy Warhol Actress? 2 New Papers Indicate Modern Climate Still In A ‘Colder Stage’, Modulated By Solar Activity, ENSO. New Paper: Most Modern Warming, Including For Recent Decades, Is Due To Solar Forcing, Not CO2.
New Paper: 14 Scientists Affirm Solar Forcing, Not CO2, Is ‘Dominant Control’ For Modern Climate Change. Is the Sun driving ozone and changing the climate? Where The Temperature Rules The Sun. Fifty Years Ago – National Geographic Said The Sun Controls Glacial Behavior. Sun's impact on climate change quantified for first time. Leading International Geologist Peter Ziegler: “Sun Is Driving Climate, Not CO2.” Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing? | ScienceBits. 18 New Papers Link High Solar Activity To Medieval And Modern Warmth, Low Solar Activity To Little Ice Age Cooling. Unstoppable Solar Cycles. National Geographic 1967 : Sunspots Control Glaciers | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Record heat despite a cold sun | Watts Up With That? Satellite Data Proves Changes in Sun Caused Recent Global Warming, Not Humans - Principia Scientific International.
Solar Denialists Face Harsh Times …Flurry of New Studies, CERN, Show Sun’s Massive Impact On Global Climate.