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Long-term Temperature Reconstructions Do Not Show Correlation with CO2

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Kenneth Richards' documentation of peer-reviewed research of long-term temperature trends that shows that current temperatures are not unprecedented and not correlated with carbon-dioxide concentrations.

Another New Paper Reveals No Discernible Human Influence On Global Ocean Temperatures, Climate. Three years ago, when the Rosenthal et al. (2013) paper was made available online from the journal Science, there was a bit of a stir among the purveyors of the humans-control-climate-with-their-CO2-emissions paradigm. Climate activist Michael Mann, for example, was ostensibly quite unhappy that a Medieval Warm Period (with +0.65°C warmer-than-now intermediate [0-700 m] ocean temperatures) was prominently identified in the paper’s abstract, and that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were characterized as “global events” in the summary.

These conclusions served to undermine his own tree-ring hockey-stick reconstructions that effectively made the inconvenient Medieval Warm Period disappear. None of the graphs from the paper depicted anything resembling a “hockey stick” for recent decades, which is probably why Mann claimed the paper was “suspect” and contained “a number of inconsistencies” and “debatable assumptions and interpretations”.

A New Rosenthal (2017) Paper. 108 Graphs From 89 New Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warmth. By Kenneth Richard on 2. August 2018 During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over halfway through 2018 and already 108 graphs from 89 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.

For the sake of brevity, just 13 (15%) of the 89 new papers are displayed below. The rest of the non-hockey-stick scientific papers and graphs published thus far in 2018 can be viewed by clicking the link below. The list is also readily available on the NoTricksZone sidebar menu for easy reference. Wang et al., 2018 Badino et al., 2018 Haddam et al., 2018 “The MD07-3100 SSST [summer sea surface temperature] reconstruction displays values ranging from 8° to 17°C over the last 21 kyr. Wu et al., 2018 Zheng et al., 2018 Ramos-Román et al., 2018 Stelling et al., 2018. 150 NON-Global Warming Graphs From 2017 Pummel Claims Of Unusual Modern Warmth. By Kenneth Richard on 1. January 2018 …in 122 (2017) scientific papers Image Source: Loisel et al., 201 2017: 150 Graphs, 122 Scientific Papers In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.

Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years. Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time. And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years. Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 50 Inverted Hockey Sticks – Scientists Find Earth Cools As CO2 Rises. Modern ‘Warmth’ A Brief Excursion From 8,000-Year (Continuing) Cooling Trend The scientific literature is replete with evidence that the geological record for the Holocene (the last 10,000 years) fails to support the concept that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause ocean and land temperatures to rise.

Actually, the scientific literature strongly suggests that the correlation between rising CO2 and temperature would appear to veer off in the opposite direction: as CO2 rises, temperatures decline. So if there is a correlation for the Holocene, it may be the inverse of climate model expectations. Modern ‘Warmth’ Excursion Has Had Little Or No Effect On The Overall Long-Term Cooling Trend McGregor et al., 2015 “Our best estimate of the SST cooling trend, scaled to temperature units using the average anomaly method (method 1), for the periods 1–2000 CE is –0.3°C/kyr to –0.4°C/kyr, and for 801–1800 CE is –0.4°C/kyr to –0.5°C/kyr“ Gerhard, 2004 Jiang et al., 2015 Lecavalier et al., 2013.

200 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Published Since 2017 Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented, Global-Scale Warming. By Kenneth Richard on 22. March 2018 46 New (2018) Non-Warming Graphs Affirm Nothing Climatically Unusual Is Happening Image Source: Lansner and Pepke Pederson, 2018 During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

We are less than 3 months into the new publication year. 2018 and 2017 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs (~200) Maley et al., 2018 Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018 “The record demonstrates a warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE), variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE), positive bottom water temperature anomalies during the Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) and a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability during the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE).

Wündsch et al., 2018 McGowan et al., 2018 Wu et al., 2018 Li et al., 2018. 81 Graphs From 62 New (2018) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming. By Kenneth Richard on 10. May 2018 During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over 4 months into the new publication year and already 81 graphs from 62 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual. Zheng et al., 2018 “In this study we present a detailed GDGT data set covering the last 13,000 years from a peat sequence in the Changbai Mountain in NE China.

The brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction from Gushantun peat indicates that mean annual air temperatures in NE China during the early Holocene were 5–7°C higher than today. Anderson et al., 2018 Harning et al., 2018 Grieman et al., 2018 Thornalley et al., 2018 Maley et al., 2018 Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018 Wündsch et al., 2018 McGowan et al., 2018 Wu et al., 2018 Hanna et al., 2018. 485 Scientific Papers Published In 2017 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm. During 2017, 485 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media.

These 485 new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled. More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm. N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability, as clearly shown in the first 150 graphs (from 2017) on this list. Part 1. Part 2. 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming. By Kenneth Richard on 29. May 2017 “[W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.” — Büntgen et al., 2017 Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years.

Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time. Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability. Büntgen et al., 2017 “Spanning the period 1186-2014 CE, the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after ~1850. Parker and Ollier, 2017 Gennaretti et al., 2017 Abrantes et al., 2017 “The transition from warm to colder climatic conditions occurs around 1300 CE associated with the Wolf solar minimum. Werner et al., 2017 Deng et al., 2017. Inconvenient: New paper finds the last interglacial was warmer than today – not simulated by climate models | Watts Up With That? [Reposted from the Hockey Schtick] A new paper published in Climate of the Past compares temperature reconstructions of the last interglacial period [131,000-114,000 years ago] to climate model simulations and finds climate models significantly underestimated global temperatures of the last interglacial by ~0.67C on an annual basis and by ~1.1C during the warmest month.

This implies that climate models are unable to fully simulate natural global warming, and the error of the underestimation is about the same as the 0.7C global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age in ~1850. Thus, the possibility that present-day temperatures could be entirely the result of natural processes cannot be ruled out in comparison to the last interglacial period. Further, during the last interglacial, Greenland temperatures were naturally up to 8C higher and sea levels up to 43 feet higher than today. Clim. Past, 10, 1633-1644, 2014 doi:10.5194/cp-10-1633-2014 P. 8 New Papers Reveal ‘Natural’ Global Warming Reaches Amplitudes Of 10°C In Just 50 Years With No CO2 Influence. Climate records from ice cores indicate that abrupt, global-scale warming events with amplitudes of up to 10°C (in the Greenland region) were reached within as little as 50 years dozens of times during the roughly 100,000 years between the last interglacial (~120,000 years ago) and the current interglacial period (11,700 years ago to present).

That’s equivalent to a rate of up to 2.0°C per decade of “natural” global warming. CO2 concentrations remained flat and low (~180 parts per million) throughout these warming (and cooling) periods, commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Schmidt and Hertzberg (2011) provide a summary and (modified) illustration of what these abrupt climatic shifts affecting the “Earth’s climate system” may have looked like. Schmidt and Hertzberg, 2011 “The total [global temperature] increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 °C, based on the single longest dataset available.”

Hewitt et al., 2016 Jensen et al., 2016. New Paper Asserts ‘Biased’ Climate Models Underestimate Natural Variability And The Warmth Of The Past. By Kenneth Richard on 20. April 2017 Reconstructions Of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Indicate Medieval Period Was As Warm As Recent Decades Abrantes et al., 2017 Otto and Roberts, 2016 Other NH Reconstructions Indicate Pre-Industrial Temps Were Highly Variable, 1940s As Warm As 2000s Schneider et al., 2015 Stoffel et al., 2015 New Paper: Models Need ‘Forcing’ Adjustment…Underestimate Past Warmth, Internal Variability…Instrumental Record ‘Biased’ Büntgen et al., 2017 Spanning the period 1186-2014 CE, the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after ~1850.

The reconstructed long-term variability exceeds the pre-industrial multi-decadal to centennial variability in four state-of-the-art climate model simulations. Distinguishing Between ‘Safe’ or ‘Dangerous’ Warming Is Easy: ‘Dangerous’ Warming Is Red. When Michael Mann and the IPCC coordinated efforts to make the Medieval Warm Period disappear from the paleoclimate record in the early 2000s, they employed the visually slick and effective tactic of adding red to the “dangerous” warming trend, and blue to the “safe” cooling trend.

The original Mann et al. (1998, 1999) graph that claimed to reconstruct surface temperatures for the entire Northern Hemisphere (by extrapolating from a few select trees located in North America) was published without color. The graph’s red “hockey stick” blade effectively allowed readers to see for themselves just how “dangerous” modern warming really is . The IPCC has since abandoned Michael Mann’s (Mann et al., 1998, 1999) artwork depicting late-1990s Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures as +0.9°C warmer than they were during Medieval times. (For example, the 2013 IPCC report even acknowledges that many NH regions were as warm or warmer than present during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”.) 10 New Reconstructions Show Today’s Temperatures Still Among The Coldest Of The Last 10,000 Years.

By Kenneth Richard on 10. September 2018 Even though CO2 concentrations hovered well below 300 ppm throughout most of the Holocene, newly published paleoclimate reconstructions affirm that today’s surface temperatures are only slightly warmer (if at all) than the coldest periods of the last 10,000 years. This contradicts the perspective that temperatures rise in concert with CO2 concentrations. Bottom Graph Source: Rosenthal et al. (2013) 1. Nosova et al., 2018 “According to the present climate reconstruction, mid Holocene warming started only at 7,700 cal bp, with temperatures higher than now during the mid Holocene period. “The transition from the mid Holocene thermal maximum to the following period occurred without considerable climatic changes. 2. Bajolle et al., 2018 3. Oswald et al., 2018 4. Coffinet et al., 2018 5.

Zhao et al., 2018 6. Zheng et al., 2018 7. 1950-2015 Just 0.7°C Warmer Than Coldest Temps Of The Last 9,000 Years Harning et al., 2018 Wang et al., 2018 McFarlin et al., 2018. ‘Hide The Decline’ Unveiled: 50 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Quash Modern ‘Global’ Warming Claims. We are told the globe is rapidly and dangerously warming, and that this rapid and dangerous warming has been predominantly caused by the steep rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions that began about the mid-1940s.

We even have a widely-recognized “hockey stick” graph of the Northern Hemisphere — created by Michael Mann in the late 1990s and popularized by the IPCC (2001) — to “prove” that modern warming has been synchronously global in scale, as well as rapid, dangerous, and perhaps even unprecedented (“the warmest on record”). There is a problem with this paradigm, however. An enormous problem. Below is a compilation of 50 temperature graphs from peer-reviewed scientific papers.

Some graphs indicate that (a) post-1940s temperatures actually declined in many regions of the world rather than rose rapidly — the opposite of what climate models had predicted. In many parts of the world, today’s temperatures are still among the coldest they’ve been in the last several thousand years. The Hockey Stick Collapses: 60 New (2016) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable. Two fundamental tenets of the anthropogenic global warming narrative are (1) the globe is warming (i.e., it’s not just regional warming), and (2) the warming that has occurred since 1950 can be characterized as remarkable, unnatural, and largely unprecedented. In other words, today’s climate is substantially and alarmingly different than what has occurred in the past….because the human impact has been profound. Well, maybe not. Scientists are increasingly finding that the two fundamental points cited above may not be supported by the evidence.

In 2016, an examination of the peer-reviewed scientific literature has uncovered dozens of paleoclimate reconstructions that reveal modern “global” warming has not actually been global in scale after all, as there are a large number of regions on the globe where it has been cooling for decades. In fact, there is a growing body of evidence that the warming in recent decades is not even unprecedented within the context of the last 80 years. The Proliferation Of Non-Global Warming Graphs In Science Journals Continues Unabated In 2018.