1 Meter of Sea Level Rise Now “Inevitable”… Eventually. Guest yawn by David Middleton When I first read this, I was all set to ridicule it mercilessly… until I noticed the timeline… INHERIT THE WATER —It keeps going: 1 meter sea-level rise by 2300 is now inevitableAnalyzing a longer timeline, even if we ceased emissions in 2030.SCOTT K. JOHNSON – 11/7/2019Climate change is often discussed in reference to where things will be in 2100, but the story obviously doesn’t end that year. Sea-level rise in particular has an impressive amount of inertia, and a very long time will pass before it has played out fully.
What will our emissions have set in motion on longer time scales? Projecting sea-level rise in the year 2100 is difficult enough, partly because the behavior of the world’s ice sheets and glaciers is varied and complex, and partly because it depends in a big way on how much greenhouse gasses we continue emitting. Could sea level rise by about 1 meter by 2300? That said, forecasts of sea level rise that far out in the future are pointless. Vast Swathes Of UK To Be Underwater In 80 Yrs Time–Daily Mirror. By Paul Homewood The Daily Mirror goes to new lengths of absurdity: A chilling new map has revealed how parts of the UK will be left underwater in a matter of decades as climate change causes sea levels to rise.
Major areas such as Liverpool, London and Humberside could be left completely submerged as early as 2100, according to research from Climate Central. Most scientists agree that climate change is melting polar ice sheets, adding significant amounts of water to the world’s oceans. A detailed new study has revealed how low-lying coastal areas across the world are now at risk of being completely flooded. Vast swathes of Britain could be wiped out by the encroaching waters which are represented by a terrifying red block. Cardiff, Swansea and north Wales, east Yorkshire and Hull, Peterborough and Norfolk, and the coast from Lancaster to Liverpool could be submerged in just 80 years time – unless urgent action is taken immediately. Sea level rise of 10.8 metres? Like this: Like Loading... “Scientists” Predict Amazon’s HQ2 Site in Long Island City, NY to Be Flooded by Sea Level Rise by 2020 or 2030 or 2050 or 2100!!! Guest basic geology by David Middleton 2020, 2030, 2050, 2100… Whatever… It will flood… Climate Central assures us it will flood.
Amazon’s HQ2 site in Long Island City, Queens could be flooded in the next 30 years. Here’s what scientists predict for the headquarters.Aria Bendix Nov. 14, 2018Scientists have long warned that New York City is at risk of chronic flooding. Due to its dense population and coastal location, the city has more residents living in high-risk flood zones than any other city in the US.That’s bad news for Amazon, which recently opted to locate half of its second headquarters in Long Island City, Queens. “Based on Climate Central data, that new development could be partially underwater by 2050…” Draft Scope of Work for an Environmental Impact Statement for the Anable Basin Rezoning CEQR No.: 18DCP057Q[…]The Rezoning Area is located within the coastal zone boundary.
“The waterfront sites have a base flood elevation of 12 feet. Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 2. Figure 3. Dr. Model Madness: Antarctica’s Effect on Sea Level Rise in Coming Centuries. From NASA JPL: There are two primary causes of global mean sea level rise – added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The melting of Antarctica’s ice sheet is currently responsible for 20-25% of global sea level rise. But how much of a role will it play hundreds of years in the future?
Scientists rely on precise numerical models to answer questions like this one. As the models used in predicting long-term sea level rise improve, so too do the projections derived from them. Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, have discovered a way to make current models more accurate. “Unlike most current models, we included solid Earth processes – such as the elastic rebound of the bedrock under the ice, and the impact of changes in sea level very close to the ice sheet,” said JPL’s Eric Larour, first author of the study. Although this sounds like good news, the scientists say it’s important to keep it in perspective. Sea level rise will likely prompt migration in Bangladesh | Behavioural and Social Sciences at Nature Research.
During the monsoon season, it can be pretty common in some parts of Bangladesh to see people living in flooded houses. Stagnant water reaches their waists for periods of time. With changes in sea level, these scenarios have worsened—the duration in which land is flooded becoming less temporary than was before. A natural question to us was “Why are people not leaving these places for good?” While qualitative accounts depict exoduses from major floods, we, and other colleagues, tend to find Bangladeshis stay in place. We find this in spite of how we measure migration or flooding and whether we focus on coastal or non-coastal areas.
We had an “aha” moment when we started thinking more carefully about the current adaptation practices that are occurring on coastal farmland. We started thinking about whether soil salinity—an additional consequence of sea level rise— is more inclined to affect people to move. There was less inclination to move abroad when faced with increasing soil salinity. Rising Seas Will Swamp Homes, Says Harrabin. By Paul Homewood More overhyped nonsense from Roger Harrabin: England’s coastal communities haven’t faced up to the reality of rising seas through climate change, a report says. An increase of at least 1m is almost certain at some point in the future, the government’s advisors predict. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) warns this huge rise may happen over the next 80 years – within the lifetimes of today’s children. A government spokesman said the public would be protected from the impacts of climate change. But the CCC says current shoreline management plans are unfunded and hopelessly optimistic.
It estimates that by the 2080s, up to 1.2 million homes may be at increased risk from coastal floods. Let’s look at the CCC report itself: But then we get to the nitty gritty: Sea Level to Rise 50 Feet by 2300… Oh noes!!! Guest commentary by David Middleton Global Sea Level Could Rise 50 Feet by 2300, Study SaysCharacterizing what’s known and what’s uncertain is key to managing coastal riskOctober 6, 2018Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky, according to a review of sea-level change and projections by Rutgers and other scientists.Since the start of the century, global average sea-level has risen by about 0.2 feet.
Under moderate emissions, central estimates of global average sea-level from different analyses range from 1.4 to 2.8 more feet by 2100, 2.8 to 5.4 more feet by 2150 and 6 to 14 feet by 2300, according to the study, published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources.[…]Rutgers Today “Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky…” No fracking way! RCP8.5 fraud alert! References. FAIL: 30 year old climate prediction proves to be a load of bunkum. Claim: Changing Antarctic waters could trigger steep rise in sea levels. Claim: Climate Threatens the Statue of Liberty. Honolulu Mayor Issues Directive to Prevent Sea Level Rise… Because Ignorance.
Claim: Sea Level Rise will Kill the Internet in Fifteen Years. BC Green Party Leader Predicts Sixteen Feet Of Sea Level Rise. Andrew Weaver, the head of the British Columbia Green Party and lead IPCC author, predicts sixteen feet of sea level rise. 22 Mar 2009, Page 18 – The Times at Newspapers.com There has been no change in sea level at British Columbia over the past century. Sea level there is currently near a record low. It will require ~∞ years to produce five meters of sea level rise at British Columbia..
Global Sea Level Trends – Mean Sea Level Trend Globally, according to NOAA, sea level is rising less than two millimeters per year. The absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7-1.8 millimeters/yearSea Level Trends – Global Regional Trends Weaver bases his claim of five meters of sea level rise on “collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet” due to “carbon emissions” – but scientists have known for 40 years that the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has nothing to do with climate. 09 Jan 1977, Page 1 – Chicago Tribune at Newspapers.com 21 Jul 1932 – A Warmer World I wonder why not? New Video : “Is Manhattan Going To Drown Due To Global Warming” | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog.
New York Post : Falling Sea Level Threatens Astronauts | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. National Science Foundation : Sea Level To Rise 70 Feet | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. The National Science Foundation predicts 70 feet of sea level rise. Global Sea Level Likely to Rise as Much as 70 Feet in Future Generations | NSF – National Science Foundation This is a big improvement from sixty years ago, when scientists predicted 300 feet of sea level rise. 21 Dec 1953, Page 14 – Arizona Republic at Newspapers.com Meanwhile, the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to gain ice at a near record level. Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI And the Antarctic Ice Sheet continues to gain ice. NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses | NASA. St. Andrews Golf Course Doomed by Global Warming | Watts Up With That?
Posted by John Goetz Speculation abounds that the St Andrews golf course in Scotland will disappear by mid-century – a scant 42 years from now – due to global warming. From theherald.co.uk. The world’s most famous golf course could crumble into the North Sea by the middle of this century, according to a climate change expert.Professor Jan Bebbington, director of the St Andrews Sustainability Institute, visualises a town where locals remember with sorrow the last Open played on the Old Course, the home of golf.She also foresees that Scotland will be a nation of car-sharing vegetarians and the declining population due to emigration will be offset by the allocation of 580,000 “climate change refugees”.
Does this mean we will never again see someone like David Duval whacking a golf ball against the side of a 17th hole pot bunker in futility? UPDATE: Here is a Google Interactive map of St. Also, you can watch it “crumble into the sea” in real-time here with a choice of webcam views. Like this: Manhattan To Drown In Only 700 Years | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Fake USGS Scientists Predict Two Meters Of Sea Level Rise | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Threatened by an end to global warming scam money, government scientists turn the volume of their BS up to eleven – predicting two meters of Southern California sea level rise by the year 2100.
Disappearing Beaches: Modeling Shoreline Change in Southern California Sea level in Southern California is about the same as it was in 1871. 1871 Present At low tide, the La Jolla Cove beach looks like this. It will require about 1,000 years for Southern California sea level to rise two meters, most of which is due to land subsidence rather than rising seas. Sea Level Trends – State Selection Sea level in Northern California is falling.
Sea Level Trends – State Selection Government scientists understand that they can raise funding by lying about the climate. H/t Steve Case. Thanks El Niño, But California’s Drought Is Probably Forever. Drought is a tricky thing to define. It is not just a matter of how little water falls out of the sky. If it were, you would be forgiven for believing that California’s wettish winter had ended, or even alleviated, the worst drought in state history. But no. Despite the snow in the Sierra Nevada, the water filling Lake Shasta, and the rapids in the Kern River, California is still in a state of drought. Even the governor thinks so. The most impactful part of Brown’s order requires that cities submit monthly water use, conservation, and enforcement reports to state officials.
However, at the same meeting officials from the State Water Resources Control Board—California’s water police—indicated that cities would no longer be required to meet strict efficiency goals that the governor ordered last year. So, obviously, the largest urban water district in the state went ahead and made it easier to drink. Which is kind of insane. But in California, drought is a but a geographic construct. A little known 20 40 year old climate change prediction by Dr. James Hansen – that failed will likely fail badly | Watts Up With That? UPDATE: Thanks to a tip from Willis Eschenbach, there’s some developing news in that story from Dr. James Hansen. The Salon interviewee and book author, Rob Reiss that I quoted, now admits he somehow conflated 40 years with 20 years, and concedes that Dr.
Hansen actually said 40 years for his prediction. However, as the newest analysis shows, it doesn’t make any difference, and we still aren’t seeing the magnitude of sea level rise predicted, now 23 years into it. See the relevant excerpt below: Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Source: this update on Dr. In my story, below, I quoted from Reiss here in the Salon interview. So I’m happy to make the correction for Dr. Per Dr. How’s that going? Here’s the PSMSL page Here it is overlaid with the Colorado satellite data. IPCC – US Beaches Gone By 2020 | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. In 1995, 2,500 of the world’s top climate experts announced that east coast beaches were doomed by the year 2020, due to sea level rise.
At the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years. Scientists Say Earth’s Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions – NYTimes.com East coast beaches are sinking due to post-glacial rebound, and the rate hasn’t changed. It isn’t clear how an increase of 0.0001 mole fraction CO2 over the past century would affect geologic processes in the mantle. As always, climate scientists had/have no clue what they were talking about. But with each new failure, their certainty increases. Now at 99%. New Alarmist Paper Predicts Two Feet Sea Level Rise By 2100. Scientists say “only a few millimetres sea level rise” if Antarctic ice shelf collapses. Sea Level Rise Rate Along Coast So Far Only About One Seventh Of IPCC Alarmist Projections! The time in running out for the purveyors of the “rapidly accelerating sea level rise” scare story. Especially IPCC alarmist scientists like spreading scare stories about sea level rise, and how it’s accelerating.
So far global CO2 emissions have in fact continued to climb at a rate that is defined as the “business as usual” emissions scenario RCP8.5, which means a sea level rise of up to 97 cm by 2100, according to the most recent IPCC projections: IPCC AR5 sea level rise for 4 different emissions scenarios. So far CO2 emissions have been on the worst case path. Could even be 90 by 2060! And some experts even suggest that sea level rise may occur even far more quickly. For example the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PACIOOS) here wrote.
Meanwhile some time ago alarmist climate site Skeptical Science here wrote: “Overall, the range of projected sea level rise by 2100 is 75 to 190 cm.” Gap between reality and IPCC about to become glaring Acceleration not showing up in the observations. Flashback 1978: Scientist Predicts 10°C Warming, 5 Meter Sea Level Rise, 660 ppm CO2…By 2028! Experts pour cold water on catastrophic sea level hype.