Global Cooling Beware the Snowman Cometh. New Paper: Modern Warming Was Driven By ‘Primarily Natural’ Factors. Global Cooling Has Now Begun. By Kenneth Richard on 21. January 2019 Four climate scientists assert (1) the last ~130 years of temperature changes fit “perfectly” into statistical indices of natural variation, and (2) a long-term deep cooling of the Earth system has recently commenced. Image Source: Mao et al., 2019 An analysis published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences by 4 climate scientists reveals the 1880-2013 temperature changes fit “perfectly” (0.9 correlation) into a calculation utilizing 15,295 periodic functions of natural variation. Mao, Tan, Chen, and Fan (2019) effectively suggest we humans do not exert fundamental control over the Earth’s climate-modulating “Ocean Stabilization Machine”.
Consequently, their statistical analysis further indicates a global cooling trend has recently begun, and the overall decline in global temperature will precisely reach −0.6051˚C below the long-term average in the year 2111. Image Source: Loehle, 2007. Mao et al 2019 Show an Upcoming 1-Deg C + Decline in Global Land Surface Temperatures by the Early 2100s. This is a quick introduction to the 2019 paper The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of Global Warming on Climate Change by Mao et al.
(pdf here). I believe many visitors here would find interest in their projected decrease (yup, decrease) in global land surface temperatures by the early 2100s and their conclusion that the recent global warming may have occurred primarily through natural factors. Global cooling? I’m against it. Considering how cold it was outside my home this morning (about -18 deg C, or roughly 0 deg F), I’m glad I have a fossil-fuel-powered heating system. A recent post New Paper: Modern Warming Was Driven By ‘Primarily Natural’ Factors. Figure 3 from Mao et al. 2019 The abstract reads: Contemporary references to global warming pertain to the dramatic increase in monthly global land surface temperature (GLST) anomalies since 1976. Have fun in the comments below and enjoy the rest of your day.
Regards, Bob Tisdale Like this: Guardian : New Ice Age Coming Fast. Current and Possible Future Cooling. Notch-Delay Solar Theory · Science Speak. Global temperatures will come off the current plateau into a sustained and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3 °C in the 2020s, taking the planet back to the global temperature that prevailed in the 1980s. This was signaled (though not caused) by a fall in underlying solar radiation starting in 2004, one of the three largest falls since 1610 when records started. There is a delay of one sunspot cycle, currently 13 years (2004+13 = 2017). (Please note that even if this solar hypothesis and prediction prove to be wrong, the identification of the errors in the conventional climate models and the finding that carbon dioxide is not the main cause of recent global warming are still correct.)
Systems, Sinusoids, the Fourier Transform, and Filters. The notch-delay solar theory was introduced in the old blog posts of 2014, but was left incomplete. New Science 20: Introduction. Related blog posts: Lubos and a few misconceptions. 7 New (2017) Papers Forecast Global Cooling, Another Little Ice Age Will Begin Soon. By Kenneth Richard on 28. December 2017 Temperatures To Decrease 0.5°C-0.7°C Due To Low Sunspots, Solar Minimum Image Source: Abdussamatov, 2012 During 2017, 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity and its modulators (clouds, cosmic rays) have been published in scientific journals.
It has been increasingly established that low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays) are highly associated with a cooling climate. In recent years, the Earth has unfortunately left a period of very high solar activity, the Modern Grand Maximum. Solar scientists are now increasingly forecasting a period of very low activity that will commence in the next few years (by around 2020 to 2025). Thirteen recently-published papers forecasting global cooling are listed below. Sun et al., 2017 The Sun is headed into a grand minimum, that is, a period of unusually low solar activity. Nurtaev and Nurtaev, 2017 Lüdecke and Weiss, 2017. More Indicators Point To Global Cooling, Warns German Scientist… Cooling Of “At least 1°C” By P Gosselin on 27. October 2017 Von Dr. Dietrich E. Koelle(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin) Now that the temperature maximum of the 1000-year cycle has been reached over the past two decades, a new global cooling phase can be expected — as has been the case over the past 8000 years.
What can be expected over the next 400 years is a drop of at least 1°C to a level seen during the Medieval times some 500 years ago (called the LIA = Little Ice Age). Northern hemisphere (NH) snow cover im May 2017 was greater than at any time in the past 32 years. In May 2017 sea ice area compared to a year earlier increased during a month of May like never before, since satellite measurement began in 1979. The gigantic ice sheet on Greenland was also at record level in May 2017, from the beginning of September 2016 to the end of 2017 mass balance of Greenland ice at a surplus of 700 million tonnes and has never been so high since recording began! A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades.
By Kenneth Richard on 10. April 2017 During the 20th and early 21st centuries, Earth’s inhabitants have enjoyed an epoch of very high solar activity that is rare or unique in the context of the last several thousand years. The higher solar activity and warmer temperatures have allowed the planet to briefly emerge from the depths of the successive solar minima periods and “Little Ice Age” cooling that lasted from the 1300s to the early 1900s.
Unfortunately, solar scientists have increasingly been forecasting a return to a solar minimum period in the coming decades, as well as the concomitant cooler temperatures. In several newly published (2017) papers, scientists have suggested that a substantial deterioration into solar minimum conditions and global cooling may be imminent (see, for example, here and here and here). What follows is a collection of dozens of other papers that have also projected a solar minimum-induced “Little Ice Age” climate for the foreseeable future. The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers. The coming cooling: usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers. Norman J. PageHouston, Texas Dr. Norman J. Page Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgDOI: 10.1177/0958305X16686488 Energy & Environment 0(0) 1–18(C )The Author(s) 2017 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav journals.sagepub.com/home/eae ABSTRACTThis paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. 1.
Climate forecasts are made by the IPCC using analytic numerical models called General Circulation Models (GCMs) which attempt to describe the climate dynamics using sets of differential equations. The IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM report Fig 5 shows how the models are structured and the latest IPCC estimates of Radiative Forcing by emissions and drivers (2).
Fig. 1 Radiative Forcing by Emissions and Drivers Fig SPM-05 (2) Fig. 1 shows Very High Confidence for the C02 forcing. What could be clearer? 2. Fig 4. 3. 4. Agriculture & Global Cooling. Scientists and Studies predict 'imminent global COOLING' | Principia Scientific International. Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by 2030. A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia. A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030. A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun.
It predicts rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles beginning in 2021 and lasting 33 years. Very low magnetic activity on the Sun correspond with historically documented cold periods on Earth. Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames. Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”! Another major European media outlet is asking: Where’s the global warming?
Image right: The August 7 edition of Denmark’s Jyllands-Posten featured a major 2-page article on the globe’s 15-years of missing warming and the potential solar causes and implications. Moreover, they are featuring prominent skeptic scientists who are warning of a potential little ice age and dismissing CO2 as a major climate driver. And all of this just before the release of the IPCC’s 5AR, no less! Hat-tip: NTZ reader Arne Garbøl The August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten, the famous daily that published the “Muhammad caricatures“, features a full 2-page article bearing the headline: “The behavior of the sun may trigger a new little ice age” followed by the sub-headline: “Defying all predictions, the globe may be on the road towards a new little ice age with much colder winters.”
So now even the once very green Danish media is now spreading the seeds of doubt. Where did all the heat go? N N o N: Russia's Pulkovo Observatory: "we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years" Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says. "Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers.
Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. "Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. Somewhere historians are most certainly already writing the final chapters of a long overdue book, "The Rise and Fall of the Global Warming movement". Hopefully the Russian scientists are right about the possibilities of Arctic exploration even in colder circumstances: Russian Scientists Dismiss CO2 Forcing, Predict Decades Of Cooling, Connect Cosmic Ray Flux To Climate. A new scientific paper authored by seven scientists affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences was just published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics. The scientists dismiss both “greenhouse gases” and variations in the Sun’s irradiance as significant climate drivers, and instead embrace cloud cover variations — modulated by cosmic ray flux — as a dominant contributor to climate change.
A concise summary: As cosmic ray flux increases, more clouds are formed on a global scale. More global-scale cloud cover means more solar radiation is correspondingly blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface (oceans). With an increase in global cloud cover projected for the coming decades (using trend analysis), a global cooling is predicted. Stozhkov et al., 2017 Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, and Changes in the Earth’s Climate Stozhkov, Y.I., Bazilevskaya, G.A., Makhmutov, V.S., Svirzhevsky, N.S., Svirzhevskaya, A.K., Logachev, V.I., Okhlopkov, V.P. Page, 2017. UW-Milwaukee Professor Predicts 50 Years of Global Cooling. [Milwaukee, Wisc...] A University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor is making headlines for his work suggesting the world is entering a period of global cooling.
"Now we're getting a break," Anastasios Tsonis, Distinguished Professor of Mathematics at UWM, said in an interview with the MacIver Institute. Tsonis published a paper last March that found the world goes through periods of warming and cooling that tend to last thirty years. He says we are now in a period of cooling that could last up to fifty years. With record breaking cold temperatures around the world this winter, his research is starting to get a lot of attention. Current figures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirm that temperatures have trended downward over the last ten years. "Around 2001 the climate began shifting. He believes man could have played a role in the warming the world recently experienced.
"I think both views are extreme, and the truth lies somewhere in between," Tsonis said. NatGeo: Sun Oddly Quiet – Hints at Next “Little Ice Age”? | Watts Up With That? Excerpts printed below, see full story here (h/t to David Archibald) Anne Minard for National Geographic News May 4, 2009 A prolonged lull in solar activity has astrophysicists glued to their telescopes waiting to see what the sun will do next—and how Earth’s climate might respond. The sun is the least active it’s been in decades and the dimmest in a hundred years. The lull is causing some scientists to recall the Little Ice Age, an unusual cold spell in Europe and North America, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850.
But researchers are on guard against their concerns about a new cold snap being misinterpreted. “[Global warming] skeptics tend to leap forward,” said Mike Lockwood, a solar terrestrial physicist at the University of Southampton in the U.K. He and other researchers are therefore engaged in what they call “preemptive denial” of a solar minimum leading to global cooling. Changes in the sun’s activity can affect Earth in other ways, too. Like this: Like Loading... New paper predicts solar activity will decline over 21st century to average Holocene levels – Published in Climate of the Past. New paper predicts solar activity will decline over 21st century to average Holocene levels A paper published today in Climate of the Past reconstructs solar activity over the Holocene [past 10,000 years] and finds solar activity during the 20th century was at relatively high levels in comparison to the rest of the Holocene, but that “Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data.”
The authors predict solar activity will decrease in the 21st century, stating, “Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.” Reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance [TSI] over the Holocene Future solar activity is predicted to decline to “average Holocene conditions” Clim. BBC Blogs - Weather - Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist.
Sunspot Enigma: Will Inactive Sun Cause Global Cooling? Global warming has been on “pause” for 15 years but will speed up again and is still a real threat, Met Office scientists have warned. Surface temperatures around the world have not increased on average since the late 1990s, causing some sceptics to suggest that climate change is not happening as quickly as experts predict. But in a set of three new reports, the Met Office claims that global warming has been disguised in recent years by the oceans, which have absorbed greater amounts of heat and prevented us from noticing the difference at surface level. This process, caused by the natural cycle of the oceans, could delay earlier predictions of global warming by five to ten years but will not last forever, researchers explained. Other factors including a number of volcanic eruptions since 2000 and changes in the Sun’s activity, could also have masked the effect of greenhouse gases by providing a slight cooling effect, they said.
Full story Pick Your Coincidence Dancing Like It’s 1998. Prof Bob Carter warns of unpreparedness for Global Cooling | Watts Up With That? The Coeur d'Alene Press - Randy Mann, German scientists predict a century of global cooling. New paper by Russian solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts another Little Ice Age within the next 30 years. Lawrence Solomon: Proof that a new ice age has already started is stronger than ever, and we couldn’t be less prepared. Earth may enter a Little Ice Age within a decade. THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper predicts temperature decrease by 2020 of up to 1C due to low solar activity. Climate Scientist Who Got It Right Predicts 20 More Years of Global Cooling. Top Russian Scientist: ‘fear a deep temperature drop — not global warming’ - Principia Scientific International. When is the next Ice Age due? - Principia Scientific International.
The New "Consensus" Predicts an Ice Age. Eminent geophysicist says world on verge of 'mini ice age' On the verge of a mini ice age. Croat scientist - Ice age could start in five years. Are Scientists Preparing for a FlipFlop Back to Global Cooling Predictions? | Watts Up With That? John Casey Predicts 2016 Mini Ice Age Begins & NASA Hides TSI Data - Principia Scientific International.