Americans have made hurricane destruction worse (but not with carbon emissions) Amidst the epic devastation of this season’s hurricanes, many commentators have demanded a renewed discussion of the hazards of climate change. There was an unseemly opportunism in doing this while the damage was still being cleaned up, but we can’t let the sloganeering go unanswered. The actual event we need to understand is an 11-year absence of landfalling, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) followed by a season that is harsh but inside the historical norm.
And the human element needing to be discussed is not merely the elusive role greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions might play in hurricane formation, but the conspicuous desire of people to live in the path of the storms. The formation of an Atlantic cyclone is a weather event, not a climate event. Hurricanes existed long before humans emitted GHGs. One recent change is an apparent tendency for fewer landfalling hurricanes. The formation of an Atlantic cyclone is a weather event, not a climate event Now fast forward to 2015. The Inconvenient Truth Behind MIT’s Study Linking Hurricane Harvey To Global Warming | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) Causes and predictability of the exceptionally active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. By Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over. The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands.
What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable? Download full report [Hurricane_review_2017 final] The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was unusually active, attaining twice the normal levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and US hurricane landfalls. The 2017 season ranks 7th in overall activity among all years since 1920 (Fig. 1A), reaching an ACE total of 226 that far exceeds the mean level of 105 from 1980 to 2016. Figure 1. CFAN’s inaugural hurricane forecasts, issued in early June and early August 2017, predicted above-normal ACE and US landfalls, but did not foresee the exceptional degree of overall North hurricane activity.
ACE # US landfalls Observed 226 3 Jun 2017 fcst 135 (100-170) 3 (2-4) Aug 2017 fcst 130 (100-160) 2 (1.5-2.5) La Nina Figure 2. The Role of Solar Forcing in Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity. Paper Reviewed Haig, J.E. -A. and Nott, J. 2016. Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters 43: 2843-2850. Writing as background for their study, Haig and Nott (2016) cite the work of Kuleshov et al. (2012), who highlighted a "shortfall of long-range tropical cyclone forecasts in recent seasons from statistical models largely based on the traditional regional, interannual to decadal predictors such as sea surface temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index.
" The apparent weakness of these models, according to the two Australian researchers, is the short length of the indices they utilize (usually less than 50 years), which fail to capture larger-scale climatic drivers that vary on centennial to millennial time scales. References Haig, J., Nott, J. and Reichart, G. Kuleshov, Y., Wang, Y., Apajee, J., Fawcett, R. and Jones, D. 2012. Claim: East coast ‘Monster hurricanes’ linked to previous warm periods, current data suggests otherwise | Watts Up With That? A new press release from AGU, suggests past data shows this to be true, but Dr. Philip Klotzbach suggests this graph of current data and notes: “Florida Peninsula and East Coast has seen a downturn in major hurricanes.
Only 40% as many impacts the past 50 yrs.” Monster hurricanes reached US Northeast during prehistoric periods of ocean warming Joint release: AGU, WHOI, NSF WASHINGTON, D.C. – Intense hurricanes possibly more powerful than any storms New England has experienced in recorded history frequently pounded the region during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire into the height of the Middle Ages, according to a new study. The findings could have implications for the intensity and frequency of hurricanes that the U.S. A new record of sediment deposits from Cape Cod, Mass., show evidence that 23 severe hurricanes hit New England between the years 250 and 1150, the equivalent of a severe storm about once every 40 years on average. Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! Inconvenient Hurricane Shock Truth: Period 1871 – 1900 Saw 70% More Hits Than 1986-2015! By P Gosselin on 7. November 2015 Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell puts hurricanes in historical perspective at his latest Weatherbell Saturday Summary.
He presents a fascinating statistic that tells us the alarmist claims being made today about higher and stronger storm frequency over the Atlantic are in fact a lot of hype and wild exaggeration. Joe Bastardi’s chart showing that USA saw far more hurricane hits in the late 1800’s. Source: Screenshot from here. The 30-year period from 1871 – 1900 saw 20 major hurricanes, i.e. 67% more than the 12 seen over the 1986 – 2015 period. What more do you want? Trump is right Also Joe makes the very important point that in former times hurricane intensity was measured when they made landfall, and not while they were out to sea.
Also Bastardi confirms that Donald Trump was correct in his statement where he claimed hurricanes used to be stronger. Princeton Scientists Trash Climate Alarmist Hurricane Claim | Principia Scientific International. Expert Hurricane Forecaster Says Upcoming 2017 Season Likely To Be “Worst/Costliest” In 12 Years! Ocala, FL (PRWEB) Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) veteran meteorologist David Dilley says in his early forecast that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be stronger than last year – with the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls.
It will also be the most dangerous since the 2005 season, which saw 5 hurricane landfalls and 2 tropical storms. GWO has issued the most accurate preseason predictions of any organization the past 8 years, including last years’ prediction that the “Atlantic Basin” (which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) – would enter a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle in 2016. Here is the GWO’s prediction from last year. As it turned out – 5 named storms made United States landfalls with Hurricane Hermine making landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the Eastern Upper Gulf (see Hot Spots graphic).
The official hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends December 1. Mr. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots. Study: a ‘statistically significant downward trend since 1950 exists’ in hurricane landfalls. This is going to rattle some cages, while at the same time vindicating Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. A new study in Geophysical research Letters studies hurricane activity in the Atlantic concludes that a “statistically significant downward trend since 1950 exists”. An Energetic Perspective on United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Droughts Authors Ryan E. Truchelut, Erica M. Staehling Abstract The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought.
Plain Language Summary The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely active both in terms of the strength of the tropical cyclones that have developed and the amount of storm activity that has occurred near the United States. Full paper (paywalled) Dr. Like this: Like Loading... A Twenty-Six Decade Record of Atlantic Hurricanes. Paper Reviewed Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D.A., Sánchez, N.L. and Monreal-Gómez, M.A. 2016. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 148: 48-52. Although some climate alarmists contend that CO2-induced global warming will increase the number of hurricanes in the future, the search for such effect on Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone frequency has so far remained elusive. And with the recent publication of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016), it looks like climate alarmists will have to keep on looking, or accept the likelihood that something other than CO2 is at the helm in moderating Atlantic hurricane frequency. Figure 1. Forty-five Years of Extremely Intense Worldwide Hurricane Data. Paper Reviewed Klotzbach, P.J. and Landsea, C.W. 2015. Extremely intense hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 years. Journal of Climate 28: 7621-7629. Noting that Webster et al. (2005) had documented what appeared to be large increases in both the numbers and percentages of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the conglomerate of all global ocean basins from 1970 to 2004, Klotzbach and Landsea (2015) went on to gather 10 additional years of such data in an effort to determine if these trends had continued, remained the same or possibly changed direction.
And what did their efforts reveal? (A) Pentad total of the number of hurricanes that achieved a maximum intensity of each category grouping as delineated by the Saffir–Simpson scale. (B) As in (A), but for the percentage of total hurricanes achieving each category grouping. Reference Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A. and Chang, H. 30 scientific papers Discredit Connection between Hurricanes & ‘global warming’ - Principia Scientific International. Published on Written by Marc Morano Below there are 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers that summarize the literature on the lack of connection between ocean temperatures and hurricane variability. Perhaps climate alarmists who try to link hurricanes to human actions could find these educational.
No Trend Or Reduced Intensity Of Landfalling Hurricanes With Warming: Perrie et al., 2010 “The impact of climate change is seen in slightly decreased intensities in landfalling cyclones.” Klotzbach and Landsea, 2015 “[T]be global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend [1990-2014].” Zhang et al., 2012 “The various SST measures only have a weak influence on TMLGP[tropical cyclones making landfall, South China] intensities. Landsea et al., 1996 “A long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes.
Hsu et al., 2014 Hoarau et al., 2012 Chang et al., 2016 Wu et al., 2006 Chan and Liu, 2004 Zarzycki, 2016. What you need to know about hurricanes and their trends – Fabius Maximus website. Summary: Millions of words were expended reporting about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but too little about the science connecting them to climate change. Here are the details, contrasted with the propaganda barrage of those seeking to exploit these disasters for political gain. Let’s listen to these scientists so we can better prepare for what is coming. Failure to do so risks eventual disaster. (1) A politically useful catastrophe: the Left speaks The record-setting twelve-year long hurricane “drought” (no major hurricane landfalls on the US) was just weather.
But the Left immediately boldly and confidently declared Harvey and Irma to be caused (or worsened) by anthropogenic climate change. Some of these screeds are mostly rational, just exaggerated or imbalanced. Many are simple political propaganda. Many just assume the science says what they want it to say, without recourse to the IPCC, NOAA, or a similar authority. Similarly, Joseph E. Dr.
NOAA gives their verdict. Summary. A. B. E. New book: ‘Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming ‘ | Watts Up With That? By Dr. Roy Spencer. Partly in response to the crazy claims of the usual global warming experts (Stevie Wonder, Beyoncé, Jennifer Lawrence, Mark Ruffalo, Bill Nye the Science Guy, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Pope Francis), I decided to write another Kindle e-book. This one is entitled, Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming.
In it I review the many fascinating examples of major hurricane landfalls in the United States, even going back to colonial times. For example, two major hurricane strikes endured by the Massachusetts Bay Colony, in 1635 and in 1675, have yet to be rivaled in more modern times. Major hurricane Maria, now approaching Dominica and Guadeloupe, is probably no match for the Great Hurricane of 1780 in the Caribbean, which had estimated winds of 200 mph and killed 20,000 people.
I also address the reasons why Hurricane Harvey and its flooding cannot be blamed on climate change. The Amazon description says: Like this: Like Loading...