New ‘Consensus’ Science: HALF Of 1979-Present Arctic Warming & Ice Loss Is Natural. By Kenneth Richard on 19. April 2018 Only 50% Of Recent Arctic Warming & Sea Ice Loss Is Human-Caused Image Source: Climate4you The Arctic region was the largest contributor to the positive slope in global temperatures in recent decades. Consequently, the anomalously rapid warming in the Arctic region (that occurred prior to 2005) has been weighted more heavily in recent adjustments to instrumental temperature data (Cowtan and Way, 2013; Karl et al., 2015) so as to erase the 1998-2015 hiatus and instead produce a warming trend.
Meanwhile, other scientists have been busy determining that only about 50% of the warming and sea ice losses for the Arctic region are anthropogenic, or connected to the rise in CO2 concentrations. The rest of the warming and ice declines can be attributed to unforced natural variability. Image: Image: Image: Cache of historical Arctic sea ice maps discovered | Watts Up With That? Arctic Sea ice data collected by DMI 1893-1961 Guest post by Frank Lansner I came across a number of maps showing Arctic ice extend from 1893 to 1961 collected by DMI in “Nautisk Meteorologisk Aarbog”. Each year DMI have collected information on sea ice extend so that normally each of the months April, May, June, July and August ice extend was published.
There is much more to be said about these, but this is my summary for now. Fig 1. 1901-1910 Arctic sea ice data collected by DMI. Click to enlarge! Sadly, just for a few years we also have March or September available, and thus we normally can’t read the Arctic ice minimum (medio September) from these maps. First of all I would like to thank “Brunnur” in Iceland for making these maps available on the net beautifully scanned. Fig 2. Fig 3. 1911-1920. Fig 4. Fig 5. 1921-30 Fig 6. Fig 7. Fig 8. Fig 9. Fig 10. Fig 11. 1938: Unprecedented areas of open waters. Fig 14. Fig 15. Fig 16. Fig 17. Fig 18a. Fig 19. Fig. 20, NW Passage in DMI data. You ask, I provide. November 2nd, 1922. Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt. | Watts Up With That? Roger Carr recently wrote in comments: HELP WANTED: I am trying to purchase (or plunder) a full copy of this story, mentioned here on this forum:A Washington, D.C. resident John Lockwood was conducting research at the Library of Congress and came across an intriguing headline in the Nov. 2, 1922 edition of The Washington Post: Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.The article mentions “great masses of ice have now been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,” and “at many points well-known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”
The original source of the story resurfacing recently was from an Inside the Beltway column of August 14th, 2007. The newspaper article was located in the Library of Congress archives by James Lockwood. Here is the text of the Washington Post (Associated Press) article: The source report of the Washington Post article on changes in the arctic has been found in the Monthly Weather Review for November 1922. Like this: Like Loading... Today’s Arctic Compares with 150 years ago | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood h/t Tom0mason Repost from Ron Clutz: Researchers found that ice conditions in the 19th century were remarkably similar to today’s, observations falling within normal variability.
The study is Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic Explorers’ Logs Reflect Present Climate Conditions (here) by James E. Overland, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/NOAA, Seattle,Wash., and Kevin Wood, Arctic Research Office/NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. Overview This article demonstrates the use of historical instrument and descriptive records to assess the hypothesis that environmental conditions observed by 19th-century explorers in the Canadian archipelago were consistent with a Little Ice Age as evident in proxy records. It is clear that the first-hand observations of 19th-century explorers are not consistent with the hypothesized severe conditions of a multi-decadal Little Ice Age. Fig.2. Like this:
More Arctic Ice Than 95 Years Ago | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. In 1922, the Arctic was hot, glaciers were disappearing and sea ice never formed around Spitzbergen. This year, there is lots of ice around Spitzbergen. osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php According to fake NASA temperature data, 1922 was one of the coldest years on record. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots The 1920’s warmth in the Arctic ruined NASA’s global warming scam, so they simply erased it. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis Global warming is the biggest fraud in science history. 1940 : Arctic Rapidly Melting – How Does NASA Respond? One third of Arctic sea ice disappeared between 1890 and 1940, when CO2 levels were below 310 PPM. 13 Oct 1940, Page 76 – Hartford Courant at Newspapers.com Glaciers in Greenland and Norway were melting rapidly and facing “catastrophic collapse.” 17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier at Newspapers.com The facts wreck global warming theory, so NASA quite predictably responded by erasing the 1940’s Arctic warmth.
Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis According the the article above, peak ice thickness in 1940 was 218 cm. – which is considerably less than the current peak ice thickness. CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20171107.png There are many indications that the 1940’s were as warmer or warmer than the present, and that government climate scientists intentionally erased the warmth. di2.nu/foia/1254108338.txt.
Today’s Arctic Compares with 150 years ago | Science Matters. Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is for August 31, 2016 from MASIE. Serenity is docked at Devon Island. Click to zoom in. Researchers found that ice conditions in the 19th century were remarkably similar to today’s, observations falling within normal variability. Overview This article demonstrates the use of historical instrument and descriptive records to assess the hypothesis that environmental conditions observed by 19th-century explorers in the Canadian archipelago were consistent with a Little Ice Age as evident in proxy records. It is clear that the first-hand observations of 19th-century explorers are not consistent with the hypothesized severe conditions of a multi-decadal Little Ice Age.
Analysis There were more than seventy expeditions or scientific enterprises of various types dispatched to the Canadian Arctic in the period between 1818 and 1910. Fig.1. Fig.2. Summary Explorers encountered both favorable and unfavorable ice conditions. Historic Variations in Arctic Sea Ice – Part Two | Watts Up With That? Guest essay by Tony brown Foreword Note; Last year an edited version of this article appeared at Climate Etc. This new version contains numerous additional references, graphics, quotes, more historic detail and updates. ‘Historic variations in Arctic Ice’ is a series of articles that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. (See Graphic ‘after Dansgaard et al’ below. After Dansgaard et al. This paper- Part 2–examines the period of warming 1920-1940 in detail with a decade long overlap.
Part 3 will examine the evidence for other episodes of warming through the Holocene. We are primarily concerned with identifying that these warming episodes occurred, not what caused them, Readers are encouraged to follow the links/references to understand the context of the brief extracts used. Summary of Results It states; And; This was followed by; John E. Historic Variation in Arctic Ice | Watts Up With That? Historic Variation in Arctic Ice Guest post from the Air Vent by Tony B The following is a guest post by Tony B on the history of Arctic ice. I nominated him Arctic ice historian on WUWT when I noticed he had done a considerable amount of research. Happily he took me up on it and has put a lot of work into this. I don’t know his full background, but I think you’ll see he has an excellent grasp of the historic nature of sea ice in the Arctic.
I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. I placed most of the images in myself from Tony’s references. Preface Part 1; Arctic Ice through the Ages- The Age of Scientific exploration Image ID: libr0454, Treasures of the NOAA Library Collection Northwest Passage Attempt 1821 There are many great books about heroic polar explorers, and numerous technical papers by arctic researchers-often rather dry. It was always intended to exist electronically, so links to the relevant information source have been made, rather than citing a printed reference. *Additional… Bad Science: NSIDC disappears Arctic sea ice extent going back years.
From the “Arctic is screaming louder thanks to Mark Serreze and his adjustment shenanigans” department, I don’t think this is going to fly. Some of the adjustments are as much as 1.2 million square kilometers of sea ice, which is as much as some yearly variations. -Anthony Guest essay Tom Wiita I came across this month’s page posted at the NSIDC web site detailing the sea ice findings for the current month. It mentioned a revision to the way NSIDC calculates the sea ice area which was made last month. Curious, I went to last month’s page to check it out. As a veteran NSIDC-watcher, before reading the page I made a falsifiable prediction bet with myself. Would you believe it, I won my bet! Here’s the link to the page: And here’s the relevant section describing the change copied straight off their public web site: “Revised computation of the monthly mean extent Figure 6. Happy New Year to all!
Like this: Like Loading... The WMO’s Dubious Omissions…Arctic Of The 1930s And 1940s Just As Warm As Today! By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin] Climate alarm at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) was reported on 21 March 2017 at the German online derwesten.de: Heat waves in the Arctic – climate scientists sound the alarm […] During the winter in the Arctic temperatures reached near the melting point. Do we really find ourselves on the verge of disaster? Let’s look at the HadCRUT4 temperatures in Arctic (Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Arctic temperature since 1957. Now let’s extend the time scale and look back 100 years. Fig. 2: Arctic temperature since 1920. The earlier Arctic heat years are impressive when we look at the temperature plot of the island city of Akureyri (Fig. 3): Fig. 3: Temperature plot of the Arctic location of Akureyri since 1880.
Now what could have caused it to warm up in the 1930s and 1940s? Figure 4: AMO The curves at Wikipedia or elsewhere are perhaps more colorful, but they often don’t include the last years. Understanding The Difference Between Climate And Weather. Climate experts tell me that I don’t understand the difference between climate and weather, and that Alaska is the global warming canary in the coal mine. Popular Science says Alaska is warming so quickly that computers (which can do billions/trillions of calculations per second) simply can’t keep up. Alaska is warming so quickly that weather algorithms can’t keep up | Popular Science In order to help readers understand the difference between weather and climate, I prepared these diagrams. Red areas represent climate, and blue areas represent weather. “Climate change” is causing the jet stream to currently be shifted just east of the Alaska border, with very cold air covering most of Canada and Greenland. 10-Day Temperature Outlook Ninety five years ago, Popular Science warned that the Eastern Arctic was suffering a radical change in climate conditions with unheard of high temperatures, and that the North Pole was going to be ice free. 07 Apr 1923 – NORTH POLE MELTING. – Trove.
The Changing Arctic–Nov 1922 – Climate Collections. NYT contradicts itself on Arctic warming. Michael Bastasch at the Daily Caller writes: The New York Times ran an editorial Sunday about the effect climate change had on discovering the Northwest Passage that appears to contradict claims the Arctic ice is melting at cataclysmic rates. The editorial: The Northwest Passage That Might Have Been Global warming would have helped famed fur trader Alexander Mackenzie discover a Northwest Passage connecting North America to China, according to a NYT editorial from author Brian Castner. His piece contains one significant caveat: Mackenzie’s 1789 trip happened during an era of above normal ice packed in the North that occurred before widespread fossil fuel use.
“Mackenzie paddled during the Little Ice Age, a few centuries of below-normal cold,” Castner wrote before noting Mackenzie’s failed attempt probably would have been successful had temperatures been at normal ranges. An EKG-like pattern is visible in the data, but there is a warming trend. Full story Like this: Like Loading... Three Decades of Sea Ice Cover Trends in the Bohai Sea. Paper Reviewed Yan, Y., Shao, D., Gu, W., Liu, C., Li, Q., Chao, J., Tao, J. and Xu, Y. 2017.
Multidecadal anomalies of Bohai Sea ice cover and potential climate driving factors during 1988-2015. Environmental Research Letters 12: 094014. According to Yan et al. (2017), sea ice cover "has long been recognized as a sensitive and important indicator of the climate system in both global and regional observation and modelling studies.
" From an observational standpoint, however, most studies on sea ice extent have been conducted on high latitude frozen seas. Long-term changes in the variability of sea ice cover from the middle latitudes, in contrast, are generally lacking. In an effort to fill this data void, Yan et al. examined continuous satellite imagery over the period 1988-2015 to ascertain changes in ice cover for the Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed sea located in North China. Figure 1.