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Antarctic--Recent Past

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What Emily Shuckburgh Forgot To Tell You | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood h/t Dave Ward Booker had a piece in the Mail the other day about how Scott’s and Shackleton’s records showed that sea ice extent around Antarctica then was little different to today. I did not bother reposting it as I had already covered the topic myself. However, it has elicited a hysterical and misleading reply from Dr Emily Shuckburgh of the British Antarctic Survey. More of that later, but first this is what Booker wrote: Why should there be so much excitement over the discovery — from the log books of two of Britain’s most famous explorers more than 100 years ago — that there was the same amount of ice floating round Antarctica then as there is today?

‘We know that sea ice in the Antarctic has increased slightly over the past 30 years, since satellite observations began. To which Shuckburgh replied: Those Stubborn Facts: 35-Year Cooling of South Pole Confirmed By NASA - Antarctica Ice Sheets Safe. The IPCC's climate science has long claimed that human CO2 emissions are producing an accelerated global warming, with a "runaway" warming trend, which is then being amplified in the north and south polar extremes. This dangerous warming is, of course, causing the ice sheets to melt, unleashing catastrophic sea level rise, and thus swamping coastal regions and low-lying islands, as we speak! Hmmm.....despite over 845 billion tons of human CO2 emissions being added to the biosphere since 1978, that predicted dangerous warming, and associated catastrophes, have yet to materialize. A BIG-TIME FAIL, no? As many are now saying, a rather robust and very significant embarrassment for all of the "consensus" involved: including the IPCC, the United Nations' science "experts," the governing elites and bureaucrats.

This huge fail is amplified because the South Pole region that includes Antarctica has done the opposite - literally a cooling temperature trend over the last 35 years. Antarctica Record High Temp Of 19.8°C In Fact Set 35 Years Ago – When CO2 Was Low. By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt On March 1st Arizona State University reported on Antarctica’s record high temperature.

Surprisingly the record was set not this year, or even this decade, rather it was set in the year 1982: World Meteorological Organization verifies highest temperatures for Antarctic region ASU climate expert, WMO rapporteur talks about importance of such verificationThe World Meteorological Organization announced Wednesday new verified, record high temperatures in Antarctica, an area once described as “the last place on Earth.”

The temperatures range from the high 60s (in Fahrenheit) to the high teens, depending on the location they were recorded in Antarctica. ============================== PS: Happy Easter everybody! Scott and Shackleton logbooks prove Antarctic sea ice is not shrinking 100 years after expeditions | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood h/t Green Sand An interesting article in the Telegraph: Antarctic sea ice had barely changed from where it was 100 years ago, scientists have discovered, after pouring over the logbooks of great polar explorers such as Robert Falcon Scott and Ernest Shackleton. Experts were concerned that ice at the South Pole had declined significantly since the 1950s, which they feared was driven by man-made climate change.

But new analysis suggests that conditions are now virtually identical to when the Terra Nova and Endurance sailed to the continent in the early 1900s, indicating that declines are part of a natural cycle and not the result of global warming. Scott’s ship the Terra Nova It also explains why sea ice levels in the South Pole have begun to rise again in recent years, a trend which has left climate scientists scratching their heads.

Like this: Like Loading... Solar Activity Continues Near 200-Year Low. And Antarctic Sea Ice Drop Caused By Natural Factors. Von Frank Bosse und Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated and condensed [due to time constraints] by P. Gosselin) Fig. 1: Mean solar activity (blue) compared to the activity of the current cycle (red) and the very similar solar cycle 5 (black). The behavior of the solar polar fields also indicate that the upcoming solar cycle 25 could be as weak as SC 6. According to the current conditions, we could experience a solar minimum that is similar to that experienced during the Dalton Minimum (SC 5, 6 and 7) of 1790 – 1830.

The strongly decoupled polar fields is a phenomenon that has yet to be observed since systematic observations began in the 1970s – a time when the solar activity was stronger than at any time ever observed. Last month we saw plenty of headlines about this. Fig. 3: Sea ice extent around Antarctica in February compared to 1979 (in %). The dashed line depicts the overall trend, and it remains strongly upward. Fig. 4: Antarctic surface temperature as to GISS. Antarctic Peninsula Stopped Warming 30 Years Ago | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood We are doubtlessly all aware of claims that the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming parts of the world. The implication is clear, that this is global warming in action. Yet the story is not quite all that it appears. Let’s look at the GISS temperature records for Rothera and Faraday, on the west side of the peninsula, and the Argentine stations of Esperanza and Marambio on the east.

At all four stations, there was a sharp rise in temperatures between 1980 and 1983, since when temperatures appear to have been fairly stable. We can also see from the longer records at Faraday and Esperanza that there was a similar jump in the 1960’s. Since 1983, there have been ups and downs, notably the drop in the early 1990’s associated with the Pinatubo eruption, but clearly temperatures now are no higher than they were in the mid 1980’s. Indeed, as we see below, the trend since 2000 is flat at Faraday, and falling at Esperanza. Surprise: Defying Models, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent 100 Years Ago Similar To Today. By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt German text edited/translated by P Gosselin) Satellite measurements of Antarctic sea ice do not go back even 40 years.

That’s not very much, especially when we consider that many natural climate cycles have periods of 60 years and more. Luckily we have the field of climate reconstruction. Using historical documents and sediment cores, the development of ice cover can be estimated. Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. The surprising result: with respect to sea ice extent 100 years ago things looked similar to what we have today, with the exception of the Weddell Sea.

Ice core reconstruction of sea ice change in the Amundsen-Ross Seas since 1702 A.D. New Paper Indicates Antarctica Has Been Gaining Ice Mass Since 1800. By Kenneth Richard on 30. March 2017 “Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away” — NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses For decades scientists have suggested that the effects of a climatic warming would likely lead to an increase in Antarctica’s surface mass balance (i.e., mass gains exceed losses), and this would lead to a concomitant lowering of sea levels. Oerlemans, 1982 “The results indicate that a climatic warming will probably lead to a sea-level lowering of some tens of centimetres in the next centuries. This is because for Antarctic conditions the increase in snow accumulation exceeds the increase in melting.”

Huybrechts and Oerlemans, 1990 “According to this mass balance model, the amount of accumulation over the entire ice sheet is presently 24.06 x 1011 m3 of ice, and no runoff takes place. Huybrechts et al., 2004 Lenaerts et al. 2016 Thomas et al., 2017. Trends of air temperature of the Antarctic during the period 1958–2000. Uh oh: Study says ‘collapsing’ Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica melting from geothermal heat, not ‘climate change’ effects | Watts Up With That? Remember the wailing from Suzanne Goldenberg over the “collapse” of the Thwaites glacier blaming man-made CO2 effects and the smackdown given to the claim on WUWT? Well, never mind. From the University of Texas at Austin and the “you can stop your wailing now” department, comes this really, really, inconvenient truth.

Researchers find major West Antarctic glacier melting from geothermal sources AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable. The presence of water and heat present researchers with significant challenges.