YouTube. 5 Unexpected Factors That Change How We Forecast The Future. When we think of "The Future," we have a tendency to think in terms of technologies.
Whether it’s something as silly as a flying car or as banal as a new iteration of a mobile tablet, our images of what tomorrow will bring have a strong material bias. For everyday folks, this isn’t terribly surprising; our sense of what’s futuristic--whether via advertising or science fiction stories--zeroes in on stuff: robots, space ships, holograms, and so forth. But those of us who do futures work professionally have to live up to a higher standard. When we think about what impacts the spread of (say) self-driving cars or 3-D printers will have, we have to consider more than the technical details.
We need to think about people: how we live, how we use (and make) our stuff, and how we’re changing. 1: Climate No surprise here. 2: Demographics Throughout the developed world, populations are getting (on balance) older and often more diverse. 3: Changing Social Patterns 4: Power and Wealth 5: Art. Strategic foresight. Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented subset of foresight (futurology, futures studies), the study of the future.
Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action.
Strategic foresight is a growing practice in corporate foresight in large companies. Its use is also growing in government and non-profit organisations. Strategic foresight can be practiced at multiple levels, including: Quotes "Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. See also References
Silicon Valley School. FPSPI. Futures studies. Moore's law is an example of futures studies; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accurately extrapolating future trends.
Futures studies (also called futurology and futurism) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. In the same way that history studies the past, futures studies considers the future. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change.
Overview Futures studies is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies and opinions with respect to tomorrow. Methodologies Tomorrow is built today. World Futures Studies Federation. World Futures Studies Federation logo The World Futures Studies Federation is a global non-governmental organization that was founded in 1973 to promote the development of futures studies as an academic discipline. History The Federation was chartered at the 1973 meeting of the International Futures Research Conference.
Past organization presiden Eleonora Barbieri Masini said in 2005: "The vision of the Federation is just as valid today as it was when the Federation started. It can still perform the role of a modest bridge between people who are concerned with building a humane world Relationship with UNESCO Association of Professional Futurists - What Is A Futurist? A professional futurist is a person who studies the future in order to help people understand, anticipate, prepare for and gain advantage from coming changes.
It is not the goal of a futurist to predict what will happen in the future. The futurist uses foresight to describe what could happen in the future and, in some cases, what should happen in the future. Most people use some sort of foresight all the time - something as simple as listening to the weather forecast to prepare for the next day. A professional futurist uses formal methods to develop descriptions of possible futures. Club of Amsterdam - Shaping Your Future in the Knowledge Society.