Onerous ID checks drive online consumers away. Internet merchant account pricing, costs and terms | Web-Merchant Services. Businesses & retailers. Centre for Retail Research, Nottingham UK. The Retail Forecast for 2013-2015 From the Centre for Retail Research "The sun has started to rise above the hill" ( (Rt Hon George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, 2013 [Elliot & Coates, 2013])) [As at 2 October 2013] The Forecast Our previous retail forecast for 2013 (retail growth of only 0.3% in real terms) was too pessimistic. Since its publication in 2 Jan 2013 the economy has improved, the Eurozone problems have remained manageable, and customers have started spending in the shops. The change does not mean a return to the 2.0%+ real growth that we saw between the mid-90s and the mid-00s, but the situation is now less bad and in some ways the economy is becoming better balanced.
Our revised GDP forecast for 2013 is 1.3% (though 1.5% may prove more accurate) and for 2014, 2.0%. Our retail forecast for 2013 in value terms is for growth of 3.9%; in 2014 3.4%; and 2015 3.4%-3.8%. Are Things Getting Any Better Nationally? UK growth in the first half of 2013 has been 1.5% (ONS). Fig 1.