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Oct-20 IIP - Reaffirms a gradual recovery. Oct 20 IIP Reaffirms a gradual recovery Please enter the following details in order to validate your access India’s IIP has posted two consecutive months of positive growth in FY21 so far.

Oct-20 IIP - Reaffirms a gradual recovery

We outline four key trends emerging from recent data, covering global comparison, the macro-divide within IIP, items of consumer demand, along with a scanning of sectoral capacity utilization. While we expect recovery to continue in H2 FY21, we are more sanguine on prospects for industrial growth in the medium term, led by three structural reforms to augment domestic manufacturing capacity as well as exports.

To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. FX FLASH - INR and the evolving lockdown stringency. INR and the evolving lockdown stringency Please enter the following details in order to validate your access Even as India is seeing a considerable easing of lockdown restrictions since Sep-20, some of our key export markets have off late gone back to a somewhat tighter lockdown framework.

FX FLASH - INR and the evolving lockdown stringency

With lockdowns having an impact on economic activity, we believe this relative play of stringency will have an asymmetric impact on India’s exports and imports. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Jan-21 IIP: Room for recovery despite disappointment. India Jan 21 IIP: Room for recovery despite disappointment.

India Jan-21 IIP: Room for recovery despite disappointment

India Q2 FY21 GDP: Arresting the free fall. India Q2 FY21 GDP Arresting the free fall Please enter the following details in order to validate your access Looking at the rear-view mirror and entirely expected, Q2 GDP data has pushed India into a technical recession.

India Q2 FY21 GDP: Arresting the free fall

Nevertheless, there is comfort in the negative print as the headline posted a positive surprise led by expansion in Manufacturing GVA after four consecutive quarters of contraction. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India excise duty on fuel - To cut or not to cut? India excise duty on fuel To cut or not to cut?

India excise duty on fuel - To cut or not to cut?

Please enter the following details in order to validate your access The record high fuel prices are bound to generate direct inflation as also second order inflationary impact by building into cost of logistics, besides weighing on inflation expectations. In this vein, it is not surprising that for households while near term inflation expectations have eased amidst correction in food prices, 1-year ahead expectations have remained unchanged at close to double-digits, as per RBI’s latest round. As such, scope for some rationalization in excise duties can be explored. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Q3FY21 GDP - Shifting gears Reverse to Drive. India Q3FY21 GDP Shifting gears Reverse to Drive Please enter the following details in order to validate your access India’s GDP posted a mildly positive growth of 0.4%YoY in Q3 FY21 after a hiatus of 2 quarters to finally exit a technical recession.

India Q3FY21 GDP - Shifting gears Reverse to Drive

This was broadly in line with our expectations. The return to positive growth is remarkable especially since it has occurred almost a quarter earlier than was envisaged 3-6 months back and in comparison to record contraction of 24.4% and 7.3% in Q1 and Q2 respectively. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. INDIA Monsoon - Adieu monsoon: Implications for growth and inflation. INDIA Monsoon Adieu monsoon: Implications for growth and inflation Please enter the following details in order to validate your access The southwest monsoon in 2020 marked its second consecutive year of stellar performance with the Jun-Sep season clocking 9% surplus rainfall.

INDIA Monsoon - Adieu monsoon: Implications for growth and inflation

Nov-20 IIP - Growth Pangs. India CPI - Inflation Pull, Push and the Pipes. India CPI Inflation Pull, Push and the Pipes Please enter the following details in order to validate your access India CPI Inflation climbed up to an 8-month high of 7.34%YoY in Sep-20 compared to 6.69% in Aug-20, marking the sixth consecutive month of retail inflation remaining above RBI’s upper threshold of tolerance i.e. at 6.0%.

India CPI - Inflation Pull, Push and the Pipes

Price pressures in the month were largely a function of food prices, with vegetables along with non-alcoholic beverages, oils & fats and protein rich items (such as pulses, eggs, fish & meat) driving the upside. Looking ahead, to borrow from Mark Carney (IIF, Tokyo Jun-19), we segregate likely near-term CPI inflation drivers into – Pull, Push and the Pipe factors. RBI Policy - Balancing continuity, accommodation and normalization. RBI Policy Balancing continuity, accommodation and normalization Please enter the following details in order to validate your access The RBI maintained status quo on monetary policy as well its accommodative stance while announcing extension of special liquidity dispensations, incentives for targeted credit flow for MSMEs, and retail access to primary and secondary g-sec markets, besides other regulatory changes.

RBI Policy - Balancing continuity, accommodation and normalization

With inflation projected to moderate and remain within the target band and GDP estimated to clock a double-digit growth in FY22, the central needs to conduct a balancing act between policy continuity, accommodation, as well as normalization. We expect the policy sequencing to play out via 1) Continuity in accommodative monetary policy stance at least until H1 FY22, 2) Provision for accommodation for g-secs via aggressive OMOs/OTs to curb the upside on term premium from elevated supply pressure in a continued fashion for the next 4-quarters, and.

India Monetary Policy - A dovish RBI maintains focus on growth…for now. India Monetary Policy A dovish RBI maintains focus on growth…for now Please enter the following details in order to validate your access RBI in its Dec-20 Monetary Policy Review maintained status quo on rates and reiterated its commitment to maintain the accommodative stance into FY22, which was along expected lines.

India Monetary Policy - A dovish RBI maintains focus on growth…for now

It also revised yet again its projections on growth and inflation. India Dec-20 IIP - A near complete recovery. India Dec 20 IIP A near complete recovery Please enter the following details in order to validate your access After a contraction of 2.1%YoY in Nov-20 which was more a function of post festive fatigue, Dec-20 IIP posted a mild growth of 1.0% to belie our and market expectations of a contraction (Bloomberg consensus: -0.5%, QuantEco Research: -0.9%). From a trend perspective, on a quarterly basis, IIP growth for Q3FY21 averages at +1.0%, the first positive reading since Jun-19.

Looking beyond the headline print, sequential momentum was fairly strong in Dec-20 (+7.8%MoM), across both sectoral and use-based sub-indices. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. Download Full Report. India Jan 21 CPI - Cruising below 5% India Jan 21 CPI Cruising below 5% Please enter the following details in order to validate your access CY2021 has begun on a normalizing note. Destination India a Policy Periscope I QuantEco. Bespoke Assignments I QuantEco. Macro Risk Advisors in India I QuantEco. Dec 20 CPI - What goes up, must come down.

Dec 20 CPI What goes up, must come down Please enter the following details in order to validate your access India’s CPI inflation showed a marked deceleration in Dec-20 as the strong salubrious seasonality in food prices exerted itself while ongoing gradual unlock continued to help restore supply side disruptions, caused earlier from COVID related lockdown. While the moderate trend is likely to persist in the near to medium term, upside risks are building up from hardening of global commodity prices.

To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. Download Full Report. India Core Inflation - Assessing COVID Sensitivities. India Core Inflation Assessing COVID Sensitivities Please enter the following details in order to validate your access Recall, amidst a sharp reduction in demand and disruptions on the supply side since the onset of the pandemic, core inflation (i.e., headline inflation excluding Food and Fuel inflation) has continued to remain elevated. We break-down core inflation into COVID sensitive and COVID insensitive components, both being mutually exclusive groups.Our findings indicate –

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