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QuantEco Shots: INR: Dollar correlation and REER overvaluation. QuantEco Shots: INR: Dollar correlation and REER overvaluation 25 Nov 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access While most EM currencies have come under pressure from dollar strength in Nov-21, the INR has appreciated by 0.7%.
INR has also gained against 38 out of 40 currencies in the REER basket in Nov-21. We estimate this relative outperformance of INR to increase its overvaluation on REER basis to 9.4-9.9% in Nov-21, the strongest level in nearly 4-years. While recent strength in capital inflows is delaying this adjustment, a catch-up with peers is likely in the coming months. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report.
Download Full Report. QuantEco DART Index – Soars to a record high. India: Payments and economic activity. India: Payments and economic activity 17 Nov 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access A payment system comprises of a set of instruments, rules, procedures, and technologies used to settle formal monetary transactions among economic agents.
Although there can be various types of formal payments, at a consolidated level, payments trace economic transactions in a country. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity slips on holiday seasonality. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity slips on holiday seasonality 10 Nov 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access The latest DART reading has been besieged by holiday-related seasonality, though working in opposing direction on the sub-indicators.
In addition, the index is likely to undergo a revision on account of E-way bills data for week ending 7th Nov-21 (which is awaited). As such, we ‘look-through’ this reading. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. Download Full Report. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity almost unchanged. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity almost unchanged 02 Nov 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access The festive season has served as an “additional kicker’ for recovery in economic activity to continue into Oct-21 aided by low run-rate of COVID cases, easing of lockdown restrictions and progress on vaccination.
QuantEco DART Index – Economic recovery consolidates. QuantEco DART Index – Economic recovery consolidates 15 Jun 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access In a further corroboration of reviving economic activity, our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index rose by 10.5%WoW in the week ending 13th Jun-21, albeit a tad softer vs. previous week’s pace of 13.1% (revised up from 12.8%) This marks the fourth consecutive week of economic activity on the mend, reversing nearly half of the dip recorded over mid-Mar-21 to mid-May-21 in tandem with the second wave of COVID infections Amidst calibrated lifting of lockdown restrictions now underway in several states, subsequent DART readings should continue to trend higher.
In an overarching view, we assess that states are undertaking a rather swift opening up of economic activities compared to 2020. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Apr – 21 IIP: Ace of Base. India Apr – 21 IIP: Ace of Base 11 Jun 2021.
India Inflation Outlook: Decoding the inflation conundrum. India Inflation Outlook: Decoding the inflation conundrum 10 Jun 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access In our assessment, CPI inflation is likely to average close to 5.0% in FY22, not far from RBI’s recently revised estimate of 5.1%.
This will definitely come as a reprieve compared to FY21 average inflation of 6.2%. However, increasingly this outlook of probable comfort is getting challenged amidst several upside risks seemingly gaining ground - WPI inflation at never seen before levels, retail price of petrol and diesel reigning at record highs, inflation expectations lingering in double-digits and global commodity prices persistently on an uptrend. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. QuantEco DART Index – Easing economic pain. QuantEco DART Index – Easing economic pain 08 Jun 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy indicates a third consecutive weekly expansion in economic activity for the week ending 6th Jun-21, further cementing the turn around from last week.
RBI Policy: Accommodative stance reiterated. RBI Policy: Accommodative stance reiterated 04 Jun 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access In line with expectations, the RBI left key policy rates unchanged at its monetary policy review in Jun-21, while reiterating its accommodative stance.
Growth forecast saw downgrade even as inflation estimates saw a minor upward tweak. The central bank remains committed to provide liquidity support and ensure its targeted distribution. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. Download Full Report. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity turns a corner. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity turns a corner 01 Jun 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have posted its first material uptick in 12 weeks for the week ending 30th May-21.
On a WoW basis, the index rose by 4.8% with last week’s change revised up to +0.9% (from -0.1% earlier). Economic development advisory services. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity flattens out. India Macrobook - FY22 Economic Outlook. India Macrobook 05 Jan 2021. COVID delays and dilutes FY22 growth recovery. COVID delays and dilutes FY22 growth recovery 03 May 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access We revise our FY22 GDP growth estimate lower by 150 bps to 10.0% basis our assessment of the impact of the current wave of COVID infections that is yet to peak. The growth setback in Q1 FY22 will be dominated more by demand deferment as opposed to Q1 FY21 which began with a supply disruption of epic proportion. This gives us the confidence that as the ongoing wave ebbs and vaccinations pick up pace, sequential growth recovery could look better Q3 FY22 onwards.
To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Apr – 21 CPI: The inflation antithesis. India Apr – 21 CPI: The inflation antithesis 12 May 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access India’s CPI inflation decelerated sharply to 4.29% YoY in Apr-21 from 5.52% in Mar-21, supported by a strong favorable statistical base. Sequentially, inflation momentum rose due to summer seasonality, elevated input costs, and some adverse, albeit minor spillover from lockdowns in several states. We continue to expect CPI inflation to moderate towards 5.0% in FY22 from 6.2% in FY21 as expectation of normal monsoon/ bumper harvest, likelihood of downward adjustment in fuel taxes, and favorable base effect would offset the upside emanating from higher global commodity prices. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Growth: The consumption snag. India Growth: The consumption snag 17 May 2021 Please enter the following details in order to validate your access We recently revised our FY22 GDP growth estimate lower by 150 bps to 10.0% basis our assessment of the impact of the second wave of COVID infections.
The sequential growth setback in Q1 FY22 will be dominated by demand destruction/deferment as opposed to Q1 FY21 which began with a supply disruption of massive proportion. Our expectation of consumption recovery looking more tempered now than in FY21, is based on three conditions – 1) ‘Forced’ or involuntary savings getting replaced by precautionary savings 2) Exhaustion of some part of pent-up demand last year and 3) Rural demand losing its vigour amidst proliferation of the virus in rural centres. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report. India Apr – 21 CPI: The inflation antithesis. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity weakens, albeit at a slower pace. QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity weakens, albeit at a slower pace. Vaccination, rates, and FX. Vaccination, rates, and FX. QuantEco DART Index – Yet another strong contraction. QuantEco DART Index - Logs a sharp plunge.
India CPI: Fueling ahead in March. Webinars And Workshops on Economic Issues I QuantEco. Best Economic Consulting Services in India. India Feb-21 IIP: Adds to the gloom. India RBI Policy: Bonding with accommodation. India RBI Policy: Bonding with accommodation Please enter the following details in order to validate your access In line with consensus and QuantEco Research expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI at its first review for FY22 decided to leave all policy rates unchanged.
Macros Research Analyst. COVID Series - Velocity crowding out money supply. COVID Series Velocity crowding out money supply. COVID Series. COVID Series Environment and economic activity Please enter the following details in order to validate your access One of the unintended benefits of the lockdown manifested in the form of improvement in air pollution levels – globally, as well as in India. Oct-20 IIP - Reaffirms a gradual recovery.
FX FLASH - INR and the evolving lockdown stringency. India Jan-21 IIP: Room for recovery despite disappointment. India Q2 FY21 GDP: Arresting the free fall. India excise duty on fuel - To cut or not to cut? India Q3FY21 GDP - Shifting gears Reverse to Drive. INDIA Monsoon - Adieu monsoon: Implications for growth and inflation. Nov-20 IIP - Growth Pangs. India CPI - Inflation Pull, Push and the Pipes. RBI Policy - Balancing continuity, accommodation and normalization. India Monetary Policy - A dovish RBI maintains focus on growth…for now. India Dec-20 IIP - A near complete recovery. India Jan 21 CPI - Cruising below 5% Destination India a Policy Periscope I QuantEco. Bespoke Assignments I QuantEco. Macro Risk Advisors in India I QuantEco. Dec 20 CPI - What goes up, must come down.
India Core Inflation - Assessing COVID Sensitivities. FY22 Budget Preview - A budget to reconstruct. Economic Features. Economic Market Research. Macros Research Analyst. Best Economic Consulting Services in India. Economic Forecasting And Analysis Services I QuantEco. Economic Development Advisory Services I Economic Research Analyst. Nov 20 CPI - Eases from peak but outlook complicated. Financial & Economic Advisory Services I Economic Consulting Services.