Economics

'Recessions can hurt, but austerity kills' | Politics. The austerity programmes administered by western governments in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis were, of course, intended as a remedy, a tough but necessary course of treatment to relieve the symptoms of debts and deficits and to cure recession. But if, David Stuckler says, austerity had been run like a clinical trial, "It would have been discontinued. The evidence of its deadly side-effects – of the profound effects of economic choices on health – is overwhelming. " Stuckler speaks softly, in the measured tones and carefully weighed terms of the academic, which is what he is: a leading expert on the economics of health, masters in public health degree from Yale, PhD from Cambridge, senior research leader at Oxford, 100-odd peer-reviewed papers to his name. In the United States, more than five million Americans have lost access to healthcare since the recession began, essentially because when they lost their jobs, they also lost their health insurance.

And what happened? Bank of England more upbeat on UK economy | Business. The Bank of England signalled modestly higher growth this year and a faster fall in inflation, as the governor Sir Mervyn King took a swipe at proposals for a Europe-wide financial transaction tax. Speaking at his last quarterly inflation report press conference, King said discussions among Europe's central bank chiefs revealed a huge amount of opposition to a transaction tax despite public backing from politicians. A long-time critic of the so-called Tobin tax, he said a charge on individual financial transactions, which several EU countries have supported in principle, was still year's away.

"Even politicians who are publicly in favour have misgivings," he said. His intervention is bound to upset anti-poverty campaigners who have succeeded in persuading 11 eurozone countries to introduce the tax on stock, bond and derivatives transactions next January, raising up to €35bn (£29bn) a year. It said the recovery was likely to be "slow but sustained". UK unemployment starts to rise again | Business. Unemployment jumped and average wage rises dropped to their lowest rate on record in the three months to March, underlining concerns at the slow pace of the UK's recovery.

There was an increase in unemployment of 15,000 in the first quarter of the year, while during the same period regular pay rose by just 0.8%. Total pay rises, which include bonuses, came in even lower than average pay rises, said the Office for National Statistics, increasing by only 0.4% at a time when inflation remains stubbornly high at 2.8%. The worsening unemployment picture sent the jobless rate up from 7.7% to 7.8% and left the total number unemployed at 2.52 million. Chancellor George Osborne has come under increasing pressure to stimulate economic growth from a wide range of critics, though they differ in their remedies, especially in areas such as construction.

Louise Thomasson never imagined she would still be doing her part-time student job six months after graduating with a first in English. Employers ruling out school leavers and long-term jobless, CIPD warns | Business. Jobseekers face a "battleground" for work with 45 applicants now chasing every low-skilled job, according to a report on Monday that warns a government clampdown on benefit claimants could push that number even higher. School leavers and the long-term unemployed are the hardest hit by the jobs scrum as many employers overwhelmed with applications say they will not even consider candidates from those two groups, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

Its quarterly survey of employers suggests employment growth will continue over coming months as the private sector hires at a faster pace while the public sector continues to cut jobs. But the CIPD warns that despite the pick-up in jobs, competition for work is intense. "The labour market at present is a battleground for jobseekers, particularly those with fewer skills or qualifications," said Gerwyn Davies, CIPD labour market adviser. But Davies warns that unemployment could continue to rise, nonetheless. UK economy picking up, surveys suggest | Business. Britain is starting to see green shoots of recovery as business activity picks up, companies continue to hire new staff and consumers start to spend again. A series of surveys published on Monday suggest the UK is on the road to recovery after its double-dip recession, providing a boost for chancellor George Osborne.

Business lobby group the CBI expects the economy to grow by 1% this year and 2% in 2014. That contrasts with the IMF, which recently slashed its growth forecast for the UK from 1% to 0.7%, and suggested Osborne should rethink his austerity programme. The CBI has consistently supported the chancellor on austerity, although it has called for more measures to boost growth. John Cridland, director general of the CBI, said on Monday: "The UK economy is moving from flat to growth. " But he warned that the country continues to face big challenges. In April, business activity grew at its fastest rate in eight months, according to Lloyds TSB's purchasing managers' index. Two-speed Britain as London soars away from the rest | UK news | The Observer.

House prices in London's swankiest districts are clocking up a rise of £27 every hour of the day and night. It sounds like a statistic from the dizzy days before the Great Recession, when ostentatious consumption was in, "banker" had yet to become a dirty word, and the capital prided itself on providing a haven for the world's super-rich. But it's the story today in the prime postcodes, which are basking in a spring recovery yet to be felt in the rest of Britain. Analysis of official data by London Central Portfolio, which helps investors to buy in the capital, shows that the cost of a property in one of central London's "prime" areas, such as Knightsbridge or Kensington and Chelsea, has jumped a whopping 25% in the last year to an average of £1,186,817.

Just around the corner in Borough Market, each Saturday morning brings a flock of foodie shoppers to stock up on artisan cheeses, hand-dived scallops and craft beers. But where is the growth happening? Op downgrade: is your money safe? | Money. There are turbulent times for Co-operative Bank which has been downgraded to junk status by the credit agency Moody's, leading to the departure of its chief executive, Barry Tootell. We look at what this means for its 6.5 million customers. Should I move my money? The standard advice is never to keep more than £85,000 in any one bank, and that applies to Co-op as much as any other bank. Anything above that is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

But at this stage there is no reason to move sums below that. Could there be a run on the bank? There are no signs of this. Will it need a bailout? Co-operative Bank's Twitter feed has been reassuring customers that despite press reports suggesting it might need a government bailout, they should not be concerned. On its @CoopBankPR feed, it said: "In light of today's news, we would like to reassure customers and members that we haven't sought nor do we need government support. " So what's the problem at Co-op? Why would you be? The Wealth Gap - Inequality in Numbers. 17 January 2012Last updated at 01:01 By Michael Robinson BBC World Service Protests have highlighted the inequality debate Until protestors took to the streets last year, first in New York and then in financial centres across the world, inequality had been a low-key issue.

Not any more. With the political temperature rising, a stream of new analysis is revealing how sharply inequality has been growing. In October, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) caused a storm by revealing how big a slice of income gains since the late 1970s had gone to the richest 1% of households. The message was dramatic. Over the 28 years covered by the CBO study, US incomes had increased overall by 62%, allowing for tax and inflation. But the lowest paid fifth of Americans had got only a small share of that: their incomes had grown by a modest 18%. Middle income households were also well below the overall average with gains of just 37%. How does that make sense? Ten years later, that gap had widened significantly. IMF team needs to see UK economy's clouds, not the sunbeam | Business.

Dear IMF officials, Don't be blinded by a single ray of sunshine. Britain may have avoided a triple-dip recession, but all the other economic news is weak at best. At the heart of the problem are the country's ultra-conservative banks and building societies. Either they are short of funds or reluctant to lend to all but the most financially secure borrower. As Vince Cable put it yesterday, they are working on a "pawnbroker business model" demanding "heaps of collateral" that he likened to a gold watch. The result is that few small and medium-sized businesses can access the cheap credit on offer from the Bank of England. Homebuyers are in a similar fix. As you pointed out on your visit last year, the Treasury has room for manoeuvre should it want to promote growth. Among the voices over here calling for a more cautious approach to austerity are the former City regulator Lord Turner, who warned yesterday that the slowdown caused by aggressive cuts could trigger a cycle of debt.

Britain's economy returns to growth in first quarter – live | Business. European markets have closed on a - mainly - positive note once again. Analysts said the continuing downbeat data from the eurozone - including poor jobless figures from Spain and France - made it ever more likely the European Central Bank would cut interest rates, perhaps as soon as next week. Looking at the wider picture, there were some reasonable US weekly jobless figures which helped sentiment.

And better than expected UK GDP figures encouraged investors in London, even though the data seemed to suggest there would be no action by the Bank of England to stimulate the economy at its meeting next week. So here is the closing snapshot: • The FTSE 100 finished 10.83 points higher at 6442.59, a 0.17% increase • Germany's Dax added 0.95% to 7832.86 • France's Cac closed 2.47% lower as the jobless total rose • Italy's FTSE MIB ended up 0.52% • Spain's Ibex dipped 0.29% In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 0.48% higher. And with that, it's time to close up for the evening. UK avoids triple-dip recession with better-than-expected 0.3% GDP growth | Business. George Osborne has welcomed news that Britain's economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013, avoiding a triple-dip recession. As the first estimate from the Office for National Statistics showed that a healthy performance from the services sector helped GDP growth to beat the 0.1% expected by City pundits, the chancellor said it was evidence that the coalition's policies were helping to "build an economy fit for the future".

"Today's figures are an encouraging sign the economy is healing," he said. "Despite a tough economic backdrop, we are making progress. We all know there are no easy answers to problems built up over many years, and I can't promise the road ahead will always be smooth, but by continuing to confront our problems head on, Britain is recovering and we are building an economy fit for the future. " Despite the unusually cold weather in March, the ONS denied that the weather had had any measurable impact on the figures. If Abenomics works, Britain's leaders will look like monkeys | Simon Jenkins. If you thought Germany was a model modern economy, forget it. Look east. After two decades of self-imposed austerity, Japan has had enough. Its new leaders are systematically, deliberately, massively inflating their economy. Named after the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, "Abenomics" is now two months into a thundering great plan B.

Japan's central bank has been ordered to print money at twice the rate that even the US is doing, to go on more spending by government and private firms. It must get inflation up by two percentage points at once. Firms must increase wages. Japan's stock market, property prices and consumer confidence have soared to five-year highs. Now even the IMF, high priest of budget discipline and scourge of profligates, is suggesting that Britain is too austere. Europe's leaders seem gripped in an economic category error similar to that which seized the continent in the 1920s. The victims are all too clear. Britain has less excuse. Japan is taking a gamble. UK economy is slowly healing, Downing Street insists amid triple-dip fears | Politics. Downing Street has said the economy is "slowly healing" before the publication of the latest growth figures which could show that Britain has entered a triple-dip recession.

The prime minister's spokesman, who was forced to defend the cabinet secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood, after he reportedly spoke of ministerial divisions over the government's growth strategy, said progress was being made on a series of fronts. Whitehall is bracing itself for the publication on Thursday of growth figures for the first quarter of 2013. Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3% in the final quarter of last year. If GDP contracts again – a second consecutive quarter of negative growth – Britain would enter another recession, its third since 2008.

The prime minister's spokesman made clear that George Osborne and David Cameron would try to strike an upbeat note when the growth figures are published by the Office for National Statistics. He said: "This government isn't in the forecasting business. Burn our planet or face financial meltdown. Not much of a choice | Will Hutton | Comment is free | The Observer. The polluted town of Huaxi in China, where excessive carbon use isn't penalised. Photograph: Carlos Barria/Reuters The world is going to fry – unless there is change soon.

There is weakening political will to make national and international targets for carbon reduction stick, no strong business and financial coalition prepared to lead and a weakening groundswell of public opinion prepared to foot the bill. Instead, the international consensus of 25 years ago – that the world must act to challenge climate change – is dissolving. This new political geography has been obvious ever since the Copenhagen talks collapsed in 2009, but last week the speed with which ground is being lost became sickeningly obvious. The theory is that the higher the price, the greater the incentive to economise on carbon use and the greater the value in being carbon efficient. The markets are only reflecting the political and cultural reality. But keep faith with democracy, science and the power of argument. The error that could subvert George Osborne's austerity programme | Politics. George Osborne's case for austerity has just started to wobble | Polly Toynbee.

In this deep slump the numbers are so huge that they may pass us by. It's hard to make the scale of suffering feel real. This week, as the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, unemployment leapt, and is expected to keep rising through next year and beyond. Opponents of this government said it would happen – and it's all too easy to smirk with we-told-you-so glee. But those 70,000 new jobless people have wretched tales to tell, so familiar they risk becoming humdrum. How many more stories can you read about sacked 50-year-olds who think they'll never find a foothold again? Add in the underemployed, and the 20m hours of work they can't find amounts to another 500,000 more out of work. How can we imagine this week's additional 70,000 unemployed? In 2010 George Osborne's palanquin was borne aloft by a host of imaginary porters, now vanished, one by one. Now Osborne has lost his last prop as unemployment rises.

Facts may be sacred, but in politics feelings win the day. If Britain is 'broke', it has been for most of the last 300 years | Tom Clark and Howard Reed. Help to Buy scheme could be exploited by second homebuyers | Money. Budget 2013: five things we learned | UK news. London's economy grows at DOUBLE the rate of the UK since the financial crisis. A short history of austerity: it almost never works | Aditya Chakrabortty. Why low interest rates are not the answer | Money. Decoding the unemployment figures exposes the truth behind the coalition’s spin. George Osborne hasn't just failed – this is an economic disaster | Seumas Milne. Osborne must find reverse gear to drive the UK economy towards recovery | Business | The Observer.

Accountancy's Big Four are laughing all the way to the tax office. Deficit Hawks Down. Larry Elliott: the ultimate Davos debate | Business. George Osborne ignores IMF's warnings on austerity plans | Politics. Positive Money 97% Owned: New Documentary. UK GDP figures: panel verdict. Osborne's economic strategy has failed | Larry Elliott | Business. UK unemployment total falls to 2.49 million. Hundreds of Barclays and Rolls-Royce jobs under threat | Business. Davos 2013: British CEOs among world's most downbeat, says survey | Business. Self-employed struggling with debts vastly beyond their earnings | Money. World unemployment figures set to rise in 2013, claims UN labour agency | Business. Snow could put UK in a triple-dip recession | World news | The Observer.

23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism - Ha-Joon Chang. Daily chart: The debtors' merry-go-round. Public Deficit by Country. All comments for youarehavingalaugh. What the experts say | The wrong cure. Music retailers expected to follow Jessops into administration | Business. UK industrial production growth weaker than forecast | Business.