background preloader

Thinking Traps

Facebook Twitter

Experimenter's bias. In experimental science, experimenter's bias, also known as research bias, is a subjective bias towards a result expected by the human experimenter.[1] For example, it occurs when scientists unconsciously affect subjects in experiments.[2]

Experimenter's bias

Bias (statistics) A statistic is biased if it is calculated in such a way that it is systematically different from the population parameter of interest.

Bias (statistics)

The following lists some types of biases, which can overlap. Selection bias,involves individuals being more likely to be selected for study than others, biasing the sample. List of common misconceptions. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia This incomplete list is not intended to be exhaustive.

List of common misconceptions

This list corrects erroneous beliefs that are currently widely held about notable topics. Each misconception and the corresponding facts have been discussed in published literature. ...Explain It Simply...Einstein. Rhetoric & Fallacies. List of cognitive biases. Illustration by John Manoogian III (jm3).[1] Cognitive biases can be organized into four categories: biases that arise from too much information, not enough meaning, the need to act quickly, and the limits of memory. Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics.

There are also controversies over some of these biases as to whether they count as useless or irrational, or whether they result in useful attitudes or behavior. For example, when getting to know others, people tend to ask leading questions which seem biased towards confirming their assumptions about the person. However, this kind of confirmation bias has also been argued to be an example of social skill: a way to establish a connection with the other person.[8] Decision-making, belief, and behavioral biases[edit] Demonstrations of silencing, a visual illusion. Cognitive bias. Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive.

Cognitive bias

Cognitive biases may lead to more effective actions in a given context.[7] Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.[8] Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations,[9] resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing.[10][11] A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics.

Kahneman and Tversky (1996) argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.[12][13] The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational. The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence.

The 12 cognitive biases that prevent you from being rational

But that doesn't mean our brains don't have major limitations. The lowly calculator can do math thousands of times better than we can, and our memories are often less than useless — plus, we're subject to cognitive biases, those annoying glitches in our thinking that cause us to make questionable decisions and reach erroneous conclusions. 15 Styles of Distorted Thinking. Top 10 Thinking Traps Exposed. Our minds set up many traps for us.

Unless we’re aware of them, these traps can seriously hinder our ability to think rationally, leading us to bad reasoning and making stupid decisions. Features of our minds that are meant to help us may, eventually, get us into trouble. Here are the first 5 of the most harmful of these traps and how to avoid each one of them. 1. Introspection illusion.

The surface appearance of an iceberg is often used to illustrate the human conscious and unconscious mind; the visible portions are easily noticed, and yet their shape depends on the much larger portions that are out of view.

Introspection illusion

The introspection illusion is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly think they have direct insight into the origins of their mental states, while treating others' introspections as unreliable. Biais cognitif. Un article de Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre.

Biais cognitif

Un biais cognitif est un schéma de pensée, cause de déviation du jugement. Le terme biais fait référence à une déviation systématique par rapport à une pensée considérée comme correcte [Par qui ?]. L'étude des biais cognitifs fait l'objet de nombreux travaux en psychologie cognitive, en psychologie sociale et plus généralement dans les sciences cognitives. Les distorsions cognitives. Les distorsions cognitives. La pensée dichotomique : tout ou rien Lorsque le raisonnement est privé de nuances, tout ce qui n’est pas une victoire devient une défaite, tout ce qui n’est pas sans risque devient dangereux, etc.

Les distorsions cognitives

Ce type de pensée se retrouve logiquement associé au perfectionnisme, aux sentiments dépressifs d’incapacité, de culpabilité, d’autodévalorisation mais également à certains traits de personnalités pathologiques. « Si vous n’êtes pas avec moi, vous êtes contre moi » « J’ai fait un écart, ça ne vaut plus la peine de continuer le régime » « L’employeur ne m’a pas recruté, je ne suis pas fait pour ce boulot » L’abstraction sélective : filtrage mental D’un événement ou d’une expérience ne seront retenus que les détails les plus déplaisants. . « J’ai gâché mon RDV avec lui car en l’embrassant, je lui ai marché sur le pied » « Mon exposé est raté, j’ai vu quelqu’un rire dans le public » « Ce médecin a consulté le Vidal pendant la consultation, il n’est pas compétent » Cognitive Dissonance.

Understanding this experiment sheds a brilliant light on the dark world of our inner motivations.

Cognitive Dissonance

The ground-breaking social psychological experiment of Festinger and Carlsmith (1959) provides a central insight into the stories we tell ourselves about why we think and behave the way we do. The experiment is filled with ingenious deception so the best way to understand it is to imagine you are taking part. So sit back, relax and travel back. The time is 1959 and you are an undergraduate student at Stanford University… As part of your course you agree to take part in an experiment on ‘measures of performance’. Little do you know, the experiment will actually become a classic in social psychology. Hidden persuaders. 7 Stupid Thinking Errors You Probably Make.

The brain isn’t a flawless piece of machinery.

7 Stupid Thinking Errors You Probably Make

Although it is powerful and comes in an easy to carry container, it has it’s weaknesses. A field in psychology which studies these errors, known as biases. Although you can’t upgrade your mental hardware, noticing these biases can clue you into possible mistakes.How Bias Hurts You If you were in a canoe, you’d probably want to know about any holes in the boat before you start paddling. Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis. This article deals with a subset of the intellectual process of intelligence analysis itself, as opposed to intelligence analysis management, which in turn is a subcomponent of intelligence cycle management. For a complete hierarchical list of articles in this series, see the intelligence cycle management hierarchy.

Intelligence analysis is plagued by many of the cognitive traps also encountered in other disciplines. The first systematic study of the specific pitfalls lying between an intelligence analyst and clear thinking was carried out by Dick Heuer.[1] According to Heuer, these traps may be rooted either in the analyst's organizational culture or his or her own personality. Types[edit] The most common personality trap, known as mirror-imaging[2] is the analysts' assumption that the people being studied think like the analysts themselves.

Inappropriate analogies are yet another cognitive trap. The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. THE BASIC LAWS OF HUMAN STUPIDITY by Carlo M. Cipolla illustrations by James Donnelly The first basic law of human stupidity asserts without ambiguity that: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation. At first, the statement sounds trivial, vague and horribly ungenerous. Closer scrutiny will however reveal its realistic veracity. A) people whom one had once judged rational and intelligent turn out to be unashamedly stupid. b) day after day, with unceasing monotony, one is harassed in one's activities by stupid individuals who appear suddenly and unexpectedly in the most inconvenient places and at the most improbable moments. Update: Prof. Kathryn Schulz : A propos de nos erreurs.

Try The McGurk Effect! - Horizon: Is Seeing Believing? - BBC Two. Unstructured Thoughts by Taylor Davidson (@tdavidson) Below are the 25 most important lessons I’ve learned through close observation and first-hand experiences in how entrepreneurs and startups fail. The first sixteen primarily address strategic and operational issues, and the last nine deal more with management and organizational issues. I believe the three most important factors for any company are people, product and market, so I’m not sure that the ratio of ways to fail really fits my overall beliefs, but perhaps you’ll have ideas and lessons you’ve learned that will bring the ratio more in line. Read, and then comment: what would you add as reason #26? (Read on Slideshare) 1.