Military strike eventuality
Get flash to fully experience Pearltrees
[July 2010] An Israeli strike against Iran? Western 'analysts' fail to factor strategy into the equationA realistic gaming of the strategic situation, however, would indicate that there is the chance that Iran could initiate a nuclear first strike against Israel, provided that such an action is preceded and accompanied by a general escalation and a concerted assault with missiles and surrogate ground force action (Hizbullah and possibly Syria). Such a situation would presuppose a substantial general escalation of tensions to create a climate which would legitimize Iranian actions, or make decisive Iranian military action appear less provocative. Indeed, the Hizbullah assault against Israel in 2006 was a doctrinal test of such a process, and, in fact, did not show that such an approach would be successful on the part of Iran as the initiator of such an action. Clearly, much has changed since then.
13/07/2010 - Ouverture libre Il n'y a pas de commentaires associés a cet article. Vous pouvez réagir . Pourquoi l’attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu Dans un commentaire pour UPI, le 12 juillet 2010 , Arnaud de Borchgrave explique pourquoi il lui paraît probable qu’une attaque contre l’Iran aura lieu. D’abord, Borchgrave explique que les sanctions ne peuvent marcher parce qu’elles n’empêcheront pas l’Iran d’avoir l’essentiel, qui est le pétrole raffiné dont il a besoin (40% de son pétrole raffiné est exporté).
For the Obama administration, the prospect of a nuclearized Iran is dismal to contemplate— it would create major new national-security challenges and crush the president’s dream of ending nuclear proliferation.
In an important article titled “ The Point of No Return ” to be published in The Atlantic tomorrow, national correspondent Jeffrey Goldberg recounts something many people didn’t realize at the time and still have a hard time believing.