Prise de décision // Choice mecanisms
Get flash to fully experience Pearltrees
In one variant of the trolley problem a trolley is rapidly bearing down on the innocent five who can be saved but only by pushing a single fat man onto the tracks. Do you push the fat man or not?
Trolley Problem Biases
[2010] The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong but You'll Never Know What It Is (Part 1) - NYTimes.com
David Dunning, a Cornell professor of social psychology, was perusing the 1996 World Almanac. In a section called Offbeat News Stories he found a tantalizingly brief account of a series of bank robberies committed in Pittsburgh the previous year. From there, it was an easy matter to track the case to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, specifically to an article by Michael A.
Courtesy of the Clendening History of Medicine Library, University of Kansas Medical Center June 11, 1914. In a brief communication presented to the Neurological Society of Paris, Joseph Babinski (1857-1932), a prominent French-Polish neurologist, former student of Charcot and contemporary of Freud, described two patients with “left severe hemiplegia” – a complete paralysis of the left side of the body – left side of the face, left side of the trunk, left leg, left foot. Plus, an extraordinary detail.
The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong but You'll Never Know What It Is (Part 2) - NYTimes.com
Oct. 2, 1919, 8:50 a.m. [35] A telephone rang in the Ushers’ Room at the White House. There were two telephones perched on a roll-top desk in a corner of the room. One went through the White House switchboard; the other was a private line directly to the president. Ike Hoover, the Chief Usher, answered the call on the private line. It was the First Lady, who told Hoover, “Please get Dr.
The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong but You'll Never Know What It Is (Part 3) - NYTimes.com
The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong but You'll Never Know What It Is (Part 4) - NYTimes.com
V.S. Ramachandran has written about anosognosia in a number of journal articles and in his extraordinary book with Sandra Blakeslee, “Phantoms in the Brain.” Ramachandran rarely settles for the status quo.In one of his first e-mails, David Dunning wrote to me about the mediocre detective who is unaware of significant clues littered all around him. A thousand unnoticed purloined letters easily within reach. Cluelessness could be just another way of expressing our relationship to the unknown unknowns. We don’t know what questions to ask, let alone how to answer them.
The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong but You'll Never Know What It Is (Part 5) - NYTimes.com
Work from Read Montague's group at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Texas, that explains how corporate sponsorship (of athletic or artistic events) can bias our judgements in a very general way: Favors from a sender to a receiver are known to bias decisions made by the recipient, especially when the decision relates to the sender, a feature of social exchange known as reciprocity. Using an art-viewing paradigm possessing no objectively correct answer for preferring one piece of art over another, we show that sponsorship of the experiment by a company endows the logo of the company with the capacity to bias revealed preference for art displayed next to the logo.
Monetary favors bias judgement in unrelated domains
Introduction A myriad of laboratory research in social science has shown that individuals are subject to biases in decision-making, ranging in topic from legal scenarios, to job satisfaction, to visual perception ( Loewenstein et al., 1993 ; Brief et al., 1995 ; Balcetis and Dunning, 2006 ). Although biases can be self-serving, they may also be rooted in biological mechanisms such as reciprocity that subvert cognitive control. The concept of reciprocity is based on the idea that social gestures from a sender to a receiver encourage some equivalent behavior in return, even if that agreement is not made explicit. One particularly relevant “open-ended” social gesture in this domain is a favor, in which one agent makes a gesture or provides a gift without any explicit expectation of reciprocity.
J. Neurosci. -- Sign In Page
En présences de choix, la théorie des probabilités propose de calculer les espérances mathématiques de gain et d'opter pour le choix qui maximise cette espérance de gain. Cependant ce procédé a plusieurs limites. La théorie de la décision vise à apporter une réponse à ces cas limites. Risque ou incertitude ? [ modifier ]
Théorie de la décision - Wikipédia
Decision theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Decision theory in economics , psychology , philosophy , mathematics , and statistics is concerned with identifying the values , uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision , its rationality , and the resulting optimal decision . It is closely related to the field of game theory as to interactions of agents with at least partially conflicting interests whose decisions affect each other. [ edit ] Normative and descriptive decision theory Most of decision theory is normative or prescriptive , i.e. , it is concerned with identifying the best decision to take (in practice, there are situations in which "best" is not necessarily the maximal (optimum may also include values in addition to maximum), but within a specific or approximative range), assuming an ideal decision maker who is fully informed, able to compute with perfect accuracy, and fully rational .
Théorie des jeux - Wikipédia
Un article de Wikipédia, l'encyclopédie libre. La théorie des jeux est un ensemble d'outils pour analyser les situations dans lesquelles ce qu'il est optimal de faire pour un agent (personne physique, entreprise, animal, ...) dépend des anticipations qu'il forme sur ce qu'un ou plusieurs autres agents vont faire. L'objectif de la théorie des jeux est de modéliser ces situations, de déterminer une stratégie optimale pour chacun des agents, de prédire l'équilibre du jeu et de trouver comment aboutir à une situation optimale. La théorie des jeux est très souvent utilisée en économie , en sciences politiques , en biologie ou encore en philosophie . La théorie des jeux moderne commence avec la publication en 1944 du livre d' Oskar Morgenstern et John von Neumann , Theory of Games and Economic Behavior . Elle a été principalement développée dans les années 1950, notamment avec les travaux de John Nash .Game theory is a method of studying strategic decision making . More formally, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers." [ 1 ] An alternative term suggested "as a more descriptive name for the discipline" is interactive decision theory . [ 2 ] Game theory is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology, as well as logic and biology. The subject first addressed zero-sum games , such that one person's gains exactly equal net losses of the other participant(s). Today, however, game theory applies to a wide range of class relations, and has developed into an umbrella term for the logical side of science, to include both human and non-humans, like computers. Classic uses include a sense of balance in numerous games, where each person has found or developed a tactic that cannot successfully better his results, given the other approach.
Game theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Thomas Bayes (né env. en 1702 à Londres - mort le 7 avril 1761 à Tunbridge Wells , dans le Kent ) est un mathématicien britannique et pasteur de l' Église presbytérienne , connu pour avoir formulé le théorème de Bayes . Ses découvertes en probabilités ont été résumées dans son Essais sur la manière de résoudre un problème dans la doctrine des risques ( Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances - 1763) publié à titre posthume dans les comptes-rendus de l'Académie royale de Londres (the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London). On lui doit en particulier une loi importante des probabilités, la règle de Bayes (posthume, 1763 ), très utilisée en classification automatique . Un exemple parmi d'autres est la lutte contre le spam , par la méthode dite d' inférence bayésienne .
Thomas Bayes - Wikipédia
Approches bayesiennes
Kahneman & Tversky
Daniel Kahneman - Wikipédia
Daniel Kahneman (né le 5 mars 1934 à Tel-Aviv , Israël ) est un psychologue et économiste américano-israélien, professeur à l' université de Princeton , lauréat du prix Nobel d'économie en 2002 , pour ses travaux fondateurs sur la théorie des perspectives , base de la finance comportementale . Il est aussi connu pour ses travaux sur l' économie du bonheur . Ses principales découvertes, sur les anomalies boursières et les biais cognitifs et émotionnels qui les causent, se sont faites en association avec Amos Tversky .Daniel Kahneman ( Hebrew : דניאל כהנמן ) (born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli -American psychologist and Nobel laureate . He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making , behavioral economics and hedonic psychology . With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and developed prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).