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Cartoon by Josh If Michael Crichton had lived to write a follow-up to State of Fear, the plotline might well have gone like this: at a top secret, state of the art laboratory in Switzerland, scientists finally discover the true cause of "global warming". It's the sun, stupid.
Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. The primary value of models is heuristic.
[ edit ] Source Data set is: set term svg size 2048,1536 fsize 60 set output "temp.svg" set border 1 set xtics nomirror set ytics nomirror set grid y2 lc rgb "#c0c0c0" set grid x lc rgb "#c0c0c0" unset xlabel set y2label "Global Temperature Anomaly °C" set key reverse top left #at 1970,0.4 Left set y2tics 0.2 unset ytics offset=0.07 plot [1880:2010] [-0.49:0.6] \ "Fig.A2.txt" \ using 1:($2-offset) \ title "Annual Average" \ lc rgb "blue" \ lw 5 \ pt 5 \ ps 0.5 \ with linespoints, \ "" \ using 1:($3-offset) \ title "Five Year Average" \ smooth csplines \ lc rgb "red" \ lw 20 \ with lines
Ausrichten von Sensoren an einer automatischen Mess-Station in der Nähe der Samoylov-Station. Foto: Konstanze Piel / Alfred-Wegener-Institut ASK Special