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Futures Thinking

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Thinking about the future requires letting go and unlearning - we can't predict the future, so we need to learn how to embrace uncertainty and implausability in order to identify what's possible - where our emerging opportunities and threats are.

Just because it's not possible today doesn't mean it won't be possible in the future. And, those who recognise this will be ahead of the game.

Scenario planning

Complexity. Job interview? Avoid these 6 psychological "leaks" Chances are, you are woefully unprepared for that upcoming interview and you don't even know it.

Job interview? Avoid these 6 psychological "leaks"

Talking points rehearsed? Check. Company and interviewer researched? Of course. Answers to tough questions practiced? Without knowing it, you communicate your deep psychological beliefs, attitudes and weaknesses every time you open your mouth. Dr. If you want to appear confident and project the right attitude, stop leaking negative psychological tells. 1. Example: "I worked hard for my previous employer for three years but still got laid off. " Here the applicant is angry and frustrated that their efforts were not rewarded when they thought they should have been. 2. Example: "The last company I worked for went out of business. This statement is wrong on many levels, but what strikes me most is the focus and emphasis on the negative. Can you see the positive in an otherwise negative situation? FUTUREPREDICTIONS.

Systemsthinking

A Warning to Leaders: Turbulence is not the Danger.

Some useful info about why we need to be thinking about the future in different ways. References our need to move beyond case studies. – mareeconway

Decision Making. Open the Future: Twelve Things Journalists Need To Know to be Good Futurist/Foresight Reporters. J.

Overview of key concepts to keep in mind when thinking about the future. – mareeconway

Bradford DeLong is a professor of economics at UC Berkeley, and was an economic advisor to President Clinton; Susan Rasky is a senior lecturer in journalism at UC Berkeley, and was an award-winning reporter for the New York Times . Why the economy needs people and businesses with one foot in the future. In difficult times, one of the first things to suffer is often the future.

Why the economy needs people and businesses with one foot in the future

As uncertainty grows, we focus on what worked in the past, but try to do more of it, faster. Like unfit people, we breathe more shallowly. We lower our targets. Our time horizons become significantly shorter. Impatient discovery vs. mature understanding — revisiting Ragnar Granit’s view of the goal of scientific work. Futures Thinking: The Basics. The first in an occasional series about the tools and methods for thinking about the future in a structured, useful way.

Futures Thinking: The Basics

For nearly the past fifteen years, I've been working as a futurist. My job has been to provide people with insights into emerging trends and issues, to allow them to do their jobs better. Futurist conversation: Ross Dawson and Gerd Leonhard on the role of a futurist. Futures Thinking: Scanning the World. In Futures Thinking: The Basics, I offered up an overview of how to engage in a foresight exercise.

Futures Thinking: Scanning the World

In Futures Thinking: Asking the Question, I explored in more detail the process of setting up a futures exercise, and how to figure out what you're trying to figure out. In this entry in the occasional series, we'll take a look at gathering useful data. Like the first step, Asking the Question, Scanning the World seems like it would be easier than it really is. In my opinion, it may actually be the hardest step of all, because you have to navigate two seemingly contradictory demands: You need to expand the horizons of your exploration, because the factors shaping how the future of the dilemma in question will manifest go far beyond the narrow confines of that issue. Sixteen new ways to test your strategies. “Ultimately, strategy is a way of thinking, not a procedural exercise or a set of frameworks” says Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, consultants at Mckinsey. With this in mind and to stimulate that thinking and the dialogue that goes along with it, they have developed a set of tests aimed at helping executives assess the strength of their strategies.

The test is a bit MBA text book like and although it represents a good starting point, it is not dynamic enough for today’s new world of work. Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning. Chun Wei Choo Faculty of Information Studies University of Toronto Toronto, Canada Abstract Environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends, and relationships in an organization's external environment, the knowledge of which would assist management in planning the organization's future course of action.

Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning

Depending on the organization's beliefs about environmental analyzability and the extent that it intrudes into the environment to understand it, four modes of scanning may be differentiated: undirected viewing, conditioned viewing, enacting, and searching. We analyze each mode of scanning by examining its characteristic information needs, information seeking, and information use behaviours. Column: Why Businesses Don't Experiment. A few years ago, a marketing team from a major consumer goods company came to my lab eager to test some new pricing mechanisms using principles of behavioral economics.

Column: Why Businesses Don't Experiment

We decided to start by testing the allure of “free,” a subject my students and I had been studying. I was excited: The company would gain insights into its customers’ decision making, and we’d get useful data for our academic work. The team agreed to create multiple websites with different offers and pricing and then observe how each worked out in terms of appeal, orders, and revenue. Several months later, right before we were due to go live, we had a meeting about the final details of the experiment—this time with a bigger entourage from marketing. One of the new members noted that because we were extending differing offers, some customers might buy a product that was not ideal for them, spend too much money, or get a worse deal overall than others.

Strategic Planning

Environmental Scanning at the Georgia Center for Continuing Education ... Environmental Scanning at the Georgia Center for Continuing Education: A Progress Report1 by Edward G.

Environmental Scanning at the Georgia Center for Continuing Education ...

Simpson, Jr., Donna L. McGinty and James L. Morrison Simpson, Edward G. A technique has been developed in the corporate world to systematically gather and evaluate information from the external environment—the environmental scanning process (Thomas, 1980).