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Automation & job loss

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Basic Income Guarantee will allow us to move up the Maslow Pyramid - interview with Gerd Leonhard. Gerd Leonhard is an acclaimed European futurist; his popular videos are featured at IEET and he is a regular IEET contributing writer. In this interview I explore his opinions and forecasts on Basic Income Guarantee. Hank Pellissier: In general, do you support the concept of Basic Income Guarantee? Gerd Leonhard: I very much support the concept of BIG (basic income guarantee) but I think we can’t actually realise the concept until we also tackle the surrounding issues: a) most people (especially men!)

Define their value by what they do, professionally - and also by how much they earn b) capitalism is basically driven by increasing consumption, and stock markets by profits and growth - neither of these traditional paradigms will remain untouched in the near future (i.e. 15-20 years- pretty much post-singularity I would speculate). Music is now 95% cheaper with Spotify or Apple subscriptions (or free on Youtube)), and movies are infinitely cheaper (and in better packages), as well. Will technological unemployment impoverish us? The popular view It’s common in contemporary sci-fi movies to see the future portrayed as a place of vast inequalities, where a tiny elite enjoys advanced technology and a life of leisure, while the masses slave away in poverty, in a polluted world stripped of resources.

But sci-fi is very often not a vision of the future, but a mirror of our present-day concerns. So it is the case with concerns over inequality and fears of technological unemployment. The worlds portrayed in these dystopian movies are filled with contradictions. Often the world’s resources have been depleted, and yet advanced technology exists, capable of generating cheap, unlimited energy. Often, this technology makes human work obsolete, yet the masses are depicted scrabbling in the dirt for a living. And the elite have access to unparalleled health, longevity and synthetic enhancements, while the masses live short brutal lives, without even twentieth-century standards of healthcare and comforts. The pace of change. Glogin?mobile=1&URI= The End of Meaningless Jobs is a Win For Us All. Many experts studying the topic of automation believe that the current rate of advancement is leading us into a future with fewer and fewer available jobs.

Maybe that’s a good thing. In his 2013 essay, “On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs,” David Graeber argued that in the wake of automation, we created employment for employment’s sake, not necessarily to fulfill any significant task or purpose. In 1930, John Maynard Keynes predicted that automation would create a 15-hour work week for everyone in Britain and the United States. Graeber argues that we failed to live up to this prediction, not because of a failure of automation, but because of the fear of the social effects that would occur when large numbers of people had large amounts of unstructured time.

In our current system, higher unemployment rates mean an unstable economy. In 2014, the Conference Board Job Satisfaction Survey reported, for the eighth time in a row, that less than half of Americans are satisfied with their jobs. Why Should We Support the Idea of an Unconditional Basic Income? What Will The Economy Look Like When The Robots Take Your Job? In the past 50 years, the number of people working in manufacturing, government, and agriculture jobs have all gone down or flat-lined. As technology infiltrates parts of the labor market that it could never reach before, employment of people who do repetitive or task-oriented jobs has seen less need for human oversight or action. And your job could very likely be next.

“In the next 50 to 100 years, I don’t think we have a job market in the way we’re used to thinking about it,” Andrew McAffee says. McAffee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His job is to research the complex relationship between business and technology, and he’s written books like Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. But if stuff is being produced without having a human being paid to produce it, would prices plummet? Study indicates Robots could replace 80% of Jobs. In a few decades, twenty or thirty years — or sooner – robots and their associated technology will be as ubiquitous as mobile phones are today, at least that is the prediction of Bill Gates; and we would be hard-pressed to find a roboticist, automation expert or economist who could present a strong case against this. The Robotics Revolution promises a host of benefits that are compelling (especially in health care) and imaginative, but it may also come at a significant price.

The Pareto Principle of Prediction We find ourselves faced with an intractable paradox: On the one hand technology advances increase productivity and wellbeing, and on the other hand it often reinforces inequalities. In his study Elliot relies on advances in speech, reasoning capabilities and movement capabilities to illustrate how robots and technology can replace jobs. I am in agreement with the general thoughts of the study, although I believe speech recognition is now far more advanced than Elliot states. The Rise of Robots – and Decline of Jobs – Is Here. Last night, 60 Minutes aired an interesting report on the rise of robots in the workforce – a subject we’ve covered extensively.

What they concluded was the robots we’re seeing aren’t necessarily the R2-D2’s and Short Circuits of science fiction – the ones that become so self-aware that they challenge our authority, or in the worst-case scenarios (think Will Smith’s I, Robot or 2001 A Space Odyssey), stage a coup and take over. Instead, what’s happening might be even scarier: they’re taking our jobs. Lots of them – and it’s already begun. Correspondent Steve Kroft calls it “technological unemployment,” and we’ve already seen the effects in manufacturing; but the same thing is happening in nearly every industry: health care, retail, media, and in businesses large and small. Here’s an interview The Fiscal Times had with Ford back in July 2011.

TFT: But haven’t people been talking about automation for years? MF: The technology just hasn’t been there. TFT: Which middle-range jobs? What the future holds: US futurist Peter Diamandis on the shape of things to come. US futurist Peter Diamandis paints a vivid picture of life in the coming decades Image Credit: Virendra Saklani/Gulf News Dubai: At a conference in Dubai this week, an American futurist painted an intriguing, at times unsettling, picture of the coming world. As Dr Peter Diamandis went over his presentation slides at The Government Summit on Tuesday, there were plenty of raised eyebrows. In the future, the slides suggested, privacy will be a thing of the past, robots will take over our jobs, 3D printers will pop out everything from human organs to houses, and man will mine asteroids in deep space for unfathomable mineral wealth. The 58-year-old said hyper-tech breakthroughs are already hurtling us towards that future, today.

“The world’s no longer changing every 100 years, it’s changing year by year,” he said on Tuesday. “Right now the only constant is change, and change is moving at an increasing rate.” Dr Diamandis was addressing a Summit session titled ‘The World in 2050’. Workers of the World... Relax! Mass unemployment fears over Google artificial intelligence plans. The Myth of the Myth of Technological Unemployment. Over at Slate, Matt Yglesias has a post titled ‘The Myth of Technological Unemployment‘ accompanied by a graph showing that hours worked in the US have been rising and falling in lockstep with output. He writes Machines are replacing workers, in other words, but they’ve been doing so since the cotton gin and the spinning jenny.

Which is absolutely true and completely uncontroversial. It’s also true that previous waves of automation have not, in the long run, led to mass unemployment. But is that still true? Here’s a graph (drawn with the assistance of my trusty assistant FRED) similar to Yglesias’s, but concentrating on US manufacturing output and jobs over the past 40 years. That really looks like technological unemployment to me, especially when manufacturing employment is also on the decline in Germany and Japan, in China, and around the world. How’s the US economy as a whole doing? I don’t find that scenario implausible at all. Advances-in-artificial-intelligence-could-lead-to-mass-unemployment-warn-experts-9094017. Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Dr Stuart Armstrong from the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford said that there was a risk that computers could take over human jobs “at a faster rate than new jobs could be generated.” “We have some studies looking at to which jobs are the most vulnerable and there are quite a lot of them in logistics, administration, insurance underwriting,” said Dr Armstrong.

“Ultimately, huge swathe of jobs are potentially vulnerable to improved artificial intelligence.” Dr Murray Shanahan, a professor of cognitive robotics at Imperial College London, agreed that improvements in artificial intelligence were creating “short term issues that we all need to be talking about.” "It's very difficult to predict," said Dr Shanahan. "That is, of course, a concern. But in the past when we have developed new kinds of technologies then often they have created jobs at the same time as taking them over. A recent paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A.

The future of jobs: The onrushing wave. IN 1930, when the world was “suffering…from a bad attack of economic pessimism”, John Maynard Keynes wrote a broadly optimistic essay, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”. It imagined a middle way between revolution and stagnation that would leave the said grandchildren a great deal richer than their grandparents. But the path was not without dangers. One of the worries Keynes admitted was a “new disease”: “technological unemployment…due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”

His readers might not have heard of the problem, he suggested—but they were certain to hear a lot more about it in the years to come. For the most part, they did not. For much of the 20th century, those arguing that technology brought ever more jobs and prosperity looked to have the better of the debate. When the sleeper wakes Be that as it may, drudgery may soon enough give way to frank unemployment. The lathe of heaven. Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence. The Rich and Their Robots Are About to Make Half the World's Jobs Disappear. Two hugely important statistics concerning the future of employment as we know it made waves recently: 1. 85 people alone command as much wealth as the poorest half of the world. 2. 47 percent of the world's currently existing jobs are likely to be automated over the next two decades.

Combined, those two stats portend a quickly-exacerbating dystopia. As more and more automated machinery (robots, if you like) are brought in to generate efficiency gains for companies, more and more jobs will be displaced, and more and more income will accumulate higher up the corporate ladder. That's according to a 2013 Oxford study, which was highlighted in this week's Economist cover story. And, as is historically the case, the capitalists eat the benefits. The prosperity unleashed by the digital revolution has gone overwhelmingly to the owners of capital and the highest-skilled workers.

Those trends aren't just occurring in the US, either. The 3D printer that can build a house in 24 hours. Getty The University of Southern California is testing a giant 3D printer that could be used to build a whole house in under 24 hours. Professor Behrokh Khoshnevis has designed the giant robot that replaces construction workers with a nozzle on a gantry, this squirts out concrete and can quickly build a home according to a computer pattern. It is “basically scaling up 3D printing to the scale of building,” says Khoshnevis. The technology, known as Contour Crafting, could revolutionise the construction industry. The affordable home? Contour Crafting could slash the cost of home-owning, making it possible for millions of displaced people to get on the property ladder.

It could be used to create high-quality shelter for people currently living in desperate conditions. As Khoshnevis points out, if you look around you pretty much everything is made automatically these days – “your shoes, your clothes, home appliances, your car. Contour Crafting How does Contour Crafting work? Colour Crafting. Study: Self-driving car sales will explode. 1 of 7 Autoplay Show Thumbnails Show Captions Annual sales of self-driving cars worldwide — including those that require some driver input — will balloon from 230,000 in 2025 to 11.8 million by 2035, a new study predicts. That would result in a cumulative total of 54 million self-driving cars in use around the world by that year, says consultants IHS Automotive.

It's no longer a question whether such cars will be built, but how soon and how many. Already, virtually all major automakers are working on self-driving technologies. By 2050, IHS predicts, nearly all vehicles — private and commercial — will be self-driving cars (SDCs). "As the market share of SDCs on the highway grows, overall accident rates will decline steadily," says Egil Juliussen, principal analyst for autonomous driver-assisted systems at IHS Automotive, who co-authored the study with IHS senior analyst Jeremy Carlson.

About a third of all global SDC sales in 2035 will be in North America, IHS says. 3-D scanning with your smartphone. Traditionally, 3-D scanning has required expensive laser scanner equipment, complicated software, and technological expertise. But MIT spinout Viztu Technologies helped change that: Back in 2011, Viztu released software, free online, that essentially replaced expensive scanning hardware with personal cameras. This innovation led to a rapidly rising commercial enterprise that concluded with Viztu's sale to a tech giant, which is now bringing the technology to the public worldwide. Viztu's flagship web service, Hypr3D, could rapidly generate digital 3-D models of an object (human or inanimate) or scene from a series of user-uploaded 2-D digital photos or videos, usually captured by digital cameras, smartphones, or webcams.

"We gave people the easiest scanner available: the cameras they already owned," says Thomas Milnes PhD '13, Viztu's chief technology officer, who developed the software behind Hypr3D as part of his MIT dissertation. A simple pipeline All this was automated for the user. How Technology Is Destroying Jobs. Given his calm and reasoned academic demeanor, it is easy to miss just how provocative Erik Brynjolfsson’s contention really is. ­

Brynjolfsson, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and his collaborator and coauthor Andrew McAfee have been arguing for the last year and a half that impressive advances in computer technology—from improved industrial robotics to automated translation services—are largely behind the sluggish employment growth of the last 10 to 15 years. Even more ominous for workers, the MIT academics foresee dismal prospects for many types of jobs as these powerful new technologies are increasingly adopted not only in manufacturing, clerical, and retail work but in professions such as law, financial services, education, and medicine.

That robots, automation, and software can replace people might seem obvious to anyone who’s worked in automotive manufacturing or as a travel agent. But Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s claim is more troubling and controversial. Dr. Job Creation Cyrcle. Robots Will Steal Your Job, but That's OK: Federico Pistono at TEDxVienna. Robots will steal your job, but that's OK: how to survive the economic collapse and be happy. My greatest passion in the robots society: Federico Pistono at TEDxBologna.