There's No Innovation Without Uncertainty. Here is one of the biggest innovation obstacles around: the need for certainty.
Dwight Towers posted a great quote from Frederick Douglass over the weekend that gets at the problem: If there is no struggle there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom and yet deprecate agitation are men who want crops without plowing up the ground; they want rain without thunder and lightning. They want the ocean without the awful roar of its many waters. Douglass was obviously talking about bigger issues than I am, but the same principle holds. Here is how Jeffrey Phillips puts it in his book Relentless Innovation: Everyone understands from the beginning how difficult it is to create compelling new ideas in any sutation, much less to convert those ideas into viable products and services. You can’t manage that way. Sacha Chua addresses this issue in the context of figuring out what you should do with your life in a really good post on passion and uncertainty: A Brief Introduction to Uncertainty in Business. Risk versus Uncertainty What are the odds that your new idea will succeed?
If it does, what will the return to you be? One of the problems that we have in business (and life!) Nassim Taleb et la prise de décision en environnement incertain: Fragile, robuste et antifragile. Stratégie non prédictive (1): Une compréhension profonde bat la prédiction. Ce billet est le premier d’une série sur la stratégie en environnement complexe et incertain.
Les environnements et les problèmes auxquels sont confrontés les entreprises sont plus complexes que les modèles traditionnels de la stratégie ne le laissent penser. A Simple Framework to Develop Deep Strategic Understanding in Uncertain Environments « Silberzahn & Jones. In a previous article, we discussed how, when facing an uncertain situation, a deep understanding of the present beats prediction about the future.
One tool that Milo and I developed for strategists to think in detail about the present – in other words to answer the pretty basic strategic question “What is going on?” – is a refinement of a framework developed by the historian Ernest May and political scientist Richard Neustadt. We call it the “KPUU framework”. It demands strategists answer and drive towards discussion (and perhaps agreement about) four simple questions about a situation. These four questions are: What do we know for sure – What is Known (K)?
An open debate about what data goes in each column – especially what is Unknown versus what is simply Unknowable at this moment – uncovers a huge number of assumptions and also exposes strategists’ differing rules of evidence. Can We Really Quantify Future Innovation Opportunities? Or Is It Just A False Sense Of Predictability?
Henry Mintzberg once suggested some twenty years ago that managers need more than just analytical skills to do their jobs well; they also needed the intuitive (right brain thinking), he was right but he didn’t write a book about it. He should have. Numbers And Strategy: Do They Mix? In your firm, when you come up with an idea for a new product line or service, or some other project that you think has great potential and want your company to invest in, what does management want to see?
My guess is it’s “payback time”, a “net present value” calculation, or some other number in a business plan, right? And if you can’t produce the numbers, you won’t get the dosh. But that’s also a bit of a problem; sometimes the most promising projects with long-term strategic implications are exactly those that are impossible to quantify. Take Intel’s invention of the microprocessor. In the early days, when they were working on and (quite heavily) investing in it, did they have a business plan, a net present value calculation and a payback time? Would microprocessors ever have seen the light of day in that firm if Intel’s management had insisted on a “payback time” calculation?
Three Videos on Forecasting and Strategic Surprise « Silberzahn & Jones. Many people are either beginning their holidays or are already in the midst of them.
If you’re the type of person who reads a blog like this, you probably already know what you’re hoping to read on your break. Therefore, I thought I’d try a different approach and offer a summer watching list rather than summer reading list. This list recommends three videos that you might consider for your travels or during your “down time”. Nous avons découvert l’ennemi, et c’est… la prévision. Il ne fait aucun doute que nous sommes très mauvais pour faire des prévisions.
Même les meilleurs d’entre-nous le sont. Même les meilleurs des meilleurs à qui nous avons confié la lourde tâche de sauver le monde de l’effondrement financier. Prenez Ben Bernanke, Président de la Réserve Fédérale américaine. En 2004, dans un discours intitulé "La grande modération", il déclarait: "L’une des caractéristiques les plus frappantes du paysage économique des vingt dernières années est le déclin substantiel de la volatilité macro-économique. (…) Ceci me rend très optimiste pour l’avenir.
" Teece-1986.pdf (application/pdf Object) Le modèle des cinq forces de Porter est nocif « Innovation Tribune. McGrath_Real_Options_Tech_Investments.pdf (application/pdf Object) McGrath AMR 1999.pdf (application/pdf Object) Strategy As a Portfolio of Options.pdf (application/pdf Object) AMRRealOptions.pdf (application/pdf Object) Probe and Learn.pdf (application/pdf Object) Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Entrepreneuriat, risque et incertitude: l’apport de l’économiste Frank Knight « Philippe Silberzahn. Padapte.pdf (application/pdf Object) Incertitude.pdf (application/pdf Object) Réfléchir à partir du futur pour se diriger dans l'incertitude.
Incertitude, peur et prévision… Au cœur de la jungle, vous venez d’entendre un bruit dans les feuilles.
Vous pensez que c’est un tigre et grimpez le plus vite possible au sommet de l’arbre voisin. De là, vous constatez que ce n’était que l’effet du vent : vous souriez de votre erreur et en êtes quitte pour une belle peur. Décider en situation d’incertitude: Quatre approches possibles « Innovation Tribune. La stratégie a pour but de décider quoi faire dans une situation donnée pour atteindre un objectif donné.
Fondamentalement, la décision stratégique se ramène à la question "Que faire ensuite? ". Deux dimensions caractérisent les approches possibles dans cette démarche stratégique: la prédiction et le contrôle.