Black swan theory. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history.
Background[edit] Taleb asserts:[8] Based on the author's criteria: History flow. In the Visualization and Behavior Group we take the perspective that data visualization should make data analytics accessible to anyone, not just the data's experts. We also believe that using social software for communication is the new norm, not a trend. We ask questions related to this world where people communicate through social media and gain insight into their world with data visualization. Our group builds innovative visual interfaces, designs novel user experiences for exploring analytics, and analyzes users' behavior in terms of motivations, incentives, and cultural influences. Some questions that keep us up at night: What does it take to trust the results shown in a visualization?
How is your cultural background and orientation reflected in your communication? How does culture influence your interpretation of a visualization? Previous Projects. Wiki + Google maps = WikiMapia. Encyclopodia.