The World Doesn’t Need Someone Telling Us What We Don’t Need In. If Joe Wilcox ran the computer industry, we’d still be using typewriters. Wilcox has a lengthy post today on BetaNews saying that the world doesn’t need an Apple tablet. And while Wilcox does have some decent general points mixed in with some bad ones, this is hardly a new thought. In fact, it’s little more than an extension of a concept that has been around for a while, but has been reinvigorated recently as the hype around Apple swirls: That tablet computers are a niche product.
Of course, it’s easy to argue that when you have history on your side up until this point. But Wilcox’s post completely overlooks what is likely to be the larger point, and in general is a dangerous way of thinking. Now, let me just state right off the bat, that Wilcox’s conclusion could absolutely be right: That Apple’s tablet device may well turn out to be a bust. While Apple has a great recent track record, a new product is still always going to be somewhat of a crapshoot, even for them. [photo: flickr/rego] Confirmed: Apple Tablet In 2010. Ex-Googler Lee sees Apple tablet debut in January | Apple. Sure, every blogger worth his salt has weighed in on the long-rumored Apple tablet that may or may not be--its possible size, shape, specs, debut date, and on and on. Now offering up a perspective on the matter is a high-profile tech industry executive, Kai-fu Lee, who until recently was the head of Google's China operations. It seems that Lee, who's now working to foster entrepreneurship in China, wrote on his Chinese language blog earlier this week that Apple CEO Steve Jobs will be releasing a tablet PC in January, and expects to produce a voluminous 10 million in the first year, according to the IDG News Service and other media outlets.
The tablet, according to Lee's post, will have a 10.1-inch touch screen and will look like an oversize iPhone. Other features are said to include a virtual keyboard, 3D graphics, and support for videoconferencing and e-books. The price reportedly will be below $1,000. How would Lee, who hasn't worked at Apple in more than a decade, know all this? The Tablet. Thursday, 31 December 2009 Another former Apple executive who was there at the time said the tablets kept getting shelved at Apple because Mr. Jobs, whose incisive critiques are often memorable, asked, in essence, what they were good for besides surfing the Web in the bathroom. —”Just a Touch Away, the Elusive Tablet PC”, The New York Times, 4 October 2009 Here’s the thimbleful of information I have heard regarding The Tablet (none of which has changed in six months): The Tablet project is real, it has you-know-who’s considerable undivided attention, and everyone working on it has dropped off the map.
I don’t know anyone who works at Apple who doubts these things; nor do I know anyone at Apple who knows a whit more. I don’t know anyone who’s seen the hardware or the software, nor even anyone who knows someone else who has seen the hardware or software. The cone of silence surrounding the project is, so far as I can tell, complete.1 I have a thousand questions about The Tablet’s design. Apple's Tablet and the Future of Movies - Cinematical. The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other | Betanews. Apple's rumored tablet computer cannot live up to the hype, which has reached almost ridiculous levels of rumor, speculation and anticipation.
The rumored tablet will fall short of expectations, because they are simply too unrealistic. What surprises me most about the excitement and early analyst sales projections: No one is talking about addressable market. So I'll assert what should be obvious to anyone thinking rationally and not emotionally: Tablet is a nowhere category. For all the hype about an Apple tablet , it is at best a niche product. The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, no matter what the hype about rumored features or regardless of what actually releases (if anything). As I will explain in this commentary, an Apple tablet -- no matter how innovative -- faces three distinctive market challenges: The greater desirability of smaller devices; overlapping functionality with devices above and below it; and functionality too limited without a physical keyboard.