Paper.Li interview: Using the Internet to Prevent Conflict. Many businesses and organisations try to identify trends and threats.
For independent political scientist Dr Hélène Lavoix, it is a necessity for social good, and Paper.li is a useful tool. Hélène identifies possible risks facing the global population to help prevent wars or disasters. She researches often hidden threats using various tools including a weekly Paper.li to scan the global horizon for anything that may create dangerous tipping points and dailies for more specific problems. Red (team) Analysis Strategic Foresight & Warning, Horizon Scanning, Risk Assessment.
Cognition, interactions and biases. Concepts: threats, crises, shocks, suprises... Understanding and modeling. SF&W Process. Plates-formes de curation. Comparateur collaboratif S'inscrire Se connecter Déconnexion Mon Espace - Plates-formes de curation Internet > Communications > Curation J'aime 7 sept. 2021 12:13:36 Comparatif des plates-formes de curation Inclure 2011-03-11 15:58:42 2021-09-07 12:13:36 Curation Comparison of social bookmarking curation tools and services.
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Delivery. Foreseeing the future, whatever the name given to the endeavour*, faces two major tasks.
First, we have the analysis, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, or, more broadly, anticipation will be obtained. Second, the result must be delivered to and understood by those who need it because they will act on it, to the least integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take**. A huge challenge runs across both those tasks: overcoming the various natural and constructed biases that limit human understanding. Much thought is usually given to analytical methodologies, which may be seen as nothing else than ways to overcome biases. Revisiting timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning. [Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users.
These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. Yet, if you deliver your anticipation when there is no time anymore to do anything, then your work will be wasted.
“Delivery” of Strategic Foresight and Warning “products:” learning from the social and mobile web? A warning does not exist if it is not delivered.
This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, has to be delivered or communicated. Actually, Cynthia Grabo’s point is true for any anticipatory activity, whatever its name, from risk management to horizon scanning. Furthermore, if strategic foresight and early warning are to be actionable, if they are to allow for true preparedness, then clients – the decision-makers and policy-makers to whom the product has been delivered and communicated – must pay heed to the foresight, or to the warning. What decision-makers then decide to do with those warnings is another story. Lessons learned The most famous strategic surprise or warning failure is the attack on Pearl Harbour on 7 December 1941.
Tsunami simulations scare Japan. STR/epa/Corbis Japan has been forced to review its tsunami defences in the wake of last year’s disaster.
Japan’s government is heeding a key message from last year’s Tohoku earthquake and tsunami: the underwater faults that encircle the country can unleash much greater devastation than previously anticipated. Last week, the cabinet’s disaster-management division briefed local officials on simulations that raise the spectre of waves even larger and more destructive than those last March, sending the officials scrambling to rethink their tsunami defence plans.
The estimates come from a government-appointed team of scientists led by Katsuyuki Abe, a tsunami expert and emeritus professor of the University of Tokyo. The team updated the nation’s main tsunami model by increasing the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake to incorporate recent massive quakes, including the magnitude-9.0 Tohoku and the magnitude 8.8 that hit Chile in 2010, causing a tsunami that reached as far as Japan.
Clients. National and Global Security Issues. Anticipating Strategic Surprises: An Introduction To Strategic Foresight And Warning, Ethos Insight, Issue 2, Civil Service College, Singapore (Helene Lavoix. Books for DataVis.