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By Ben Rooney, staff reporter January 27, 2010: 4:35 PM ET
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In marketing , the decoy effect (or asymmetric dominance effect ) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated.
Eliezer Yudkowsky joins us from Overcoming Bias , an econblog devoted to human rationality and the cognitive psychology of mistakes.
I suspect there's a Pons Asinorum of probability between the bettor who thinks that you make money on horse races by betting on the horse you think will win, and the bettor who realizes that you can only make money on horse races if you find horses whose odds seem poorly calibrated relative to superior probabilistic guesses. There is, I think, a second Pons Asinorum associated with more advanced finance, and it is the concept that markets are an anti -inductive environment.
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