Dynamite Deals :: Dodatki dla programu Firefox. Roubini warns of asset bubbles - Jan. 27, 2010. By Ben Rooney, staff reporterJanuary 27, 2010: 4:35 PM ET NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Economist Nouriel Roubini said Wednesday that asset bubbles are beginning to form in markets around the world, and he called for more regulation of the global financial system. "I fear that we're back to business as usual," Roubini told CNNMoney.com at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "We need to try to curb the excesses in the financial system.
" Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University, said the global economy could be in for another shock as investors around the world take advantage of low interest rates to fund risky bets in certain markets. He said asset bubbles are already beginning to form that could put the U.S. economy into a "double-dip" recession if regulators fail to impose even more strict regulations.
"There's a wall of liquidity chasing assets and some of those assets are oil, energy, food and gold," he said. Roubini, who is known by many as "Dr.
IDM Trader. Behavioral economics. Decoy effect. In marketing, the decoy effect (or asymmetric dominance effect) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated. An option is asymmetrically dominated when it is inferior in all respects to one option; but, in comparison to the other option, it is inferior in some respects and superior in others.
In other words, in terms of specific attributes determining preferability, it is completely dominated by (i.e., inferior to) one option and only partially dominated by the other. When the asymmetrically dominated option is present, a higher percentage of consumers will prefer the dominating option than when the asymmetrically dominated option is absent.
The asymmetrically dominated option is therefore a decoy serving to increase preference for the dominating option. Example[edit] References[edit] J. How To Not Lose. Eliezer Yudkowsky joins us from Overcoming Bias, an econblog devoted to human rationality and the cognitive psychology of mistakes. And if you think that’s interesting, you should see his day job. Everyone thinks they can win. Cognitive psychologists call it the Lake Woebegone effect, after the fictional town where “All the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.” Four-fifths of drivers think they’re in the top third. Half of all sociologists expect to someday be among the top ten leaders in the field. Am I going to tell you that you’re not as good as you think you are? But think, for a moment, about all the self-help books out there that can tell you – yes you – how you too can be amazingly successful if you just use their simple technique.
I call these books as “financial pornography”. It seems to me that every profession has a different way to be smart. On the other hand, the ways of being stupid verge on human universals. Markets are Anti-Inductive. I suspect there's a Pons Asinorum of probability between the bettor who thinks that you make money on horse races by betting on the horse you think will win, and the bettor who realizes that you can only make money on horse races if you find horses whose odds seem poorly calibrated relative to superior probabilistic guesses. There is, I think, a second Pons Asinorum associated with more advanced finance, and it is the concept that markets are an anti-inductive environment.
Let's say you see me flipping a coin. It is not necessarily a fair coin. It's a biased coin, and you don't know the bias. I flip the coin nine times, and the coin comes up "heads" each time. I flip the coin a tenth time. What is the probability that it comes up heads? If you answered "ten-elevenths, by Laplace's Rule of Succession", you are a fine scientist in ordinary environments, but you will lose money in finance. Past history, e.g. And the same also goes for more complicated regularities. Wacko or not? Lindsey Williams.
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