Egypt’s economy: Going to the dogs. Hazem Kandil · Deadlock in Cairo · LRB 21 March 2013. The Egyptian revolt is trapped in a balance of weakness. None of the key actors has the power to consolidate a new regime, or even to resurrect the old one. Alliances are necessary, but nobody knows which will last. Every combination seems equally plausible, but each would lead the country in a very different direction. Egypt’s old regime depended on a ‘power triangle’: an uneasy partnership between the military (primarily the army), the security services (the police and secret police under the control of the Interior Ministry), and the political establishment.
The uprising in January 2011 disrupted this delicate balance. It inadvertently enhanced the leverage of the military, left the security services largely untouched and created a political vacancy which Islamists, secular revolutionaries and old regime loyalists all scrambled to fill. Appeasement was not the only thing the military were looking for in a political partner. Rumours of an impending coup quickly spread. 8 March. Www.criticalglobalisation.com/Issue4/127_137_EGYPT_REALISM_JCGS4.pdf. What's Happening in Egypt. What's going on in Egypt? The short answer is: precisely what we should have expected. What is happening is obviously disturbing, but it is also a completely predictable and probably protracted struggle for power. And unless the "Arab spring" is quite atypical, the political revolutions that began two years ago are going to take years to work out. To summarize a passage from my 1996 book Revolution and War: "Revolutions are usually (invariably?)
The history of modern revolutions confirms this view. The French Revolution was equally protracted: it began in 1789, but Louis XVI was not deposed until 1792 and revolutionary France was convulsed by recurring struggles for power and several distinct governments and constitutions before Napoleon Bonaparte finally seized power in 1799 and eventually declared himself Emperor.
There are several lessons to take from this quick history. Second, outside powers can influence this process, but they cannot do so predictably. PEDRO UGARTE/AFP/Getty Images. Egyptians are being held back by neoliberalism, not religions | Rachel Shabi. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters have tried to frame the current crisis in religious terms, casting opposition to their speedily drafted constitution as the petulance of an anti-Islamist, liberal elite. Media analysis has often replicated this theme: in one corner stands Brotherhood-propelled President Mohamed Morsi who has the supposed blessings of a religious population. And in the other corner, the "secular" opposition, banging on about small details of a constitution that isn't that bad. Such wrongheaded analysis prompted Egypt expert Dr HA Hellyer from the Brookings Institution to politely request that western media "knock it off". But the result of Egypt's first referendum on the constitution (a second referendum takes place this Saturday, in districts that have yet to vote) has exposed some of the real sticking points.
The referendum had to be split into two stages because so few Egyptian judges agreed to supervise it. Tens of Thousands of Egyptians Protest Morsi's Power Grab.