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Modélisation et changement climatique

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Food Research International Volume 68, February 2015, A risk modeling framework to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptation on food and water safety. Open Access Highlights Framework to model adaptation to climate change impacts on food and water safety.

Food Research International Volume 68, February 2015, A risk modeling framework to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptation on food and water safety

Integrates narrative and systematic review, databases, and stochastic modeling. Preliminary Cryptosporidium and Giardia, mycotoxin, and Vibrio models were developed. Reductions in risks from potential risk mitigation measures were estimated. Compares relative risks and evaluates interventions through risk assessment models. Abstract Climate change may be a factor leading to increased risks of food- and waterborne illnesses from consumption of existing and emerging biological hazards. Keywords Risk assessment; Predictive model; Climate change adaptation; Decision-making; Projection; QMRA 1. Mean seasonal and annual surface air temperatures across most of North America are projected to rise at an increasing rate over the course of the 21st century (IPCC, 2013).

Typically, QMRAs are developed by assuming historical and/or static weather and climate conditions. 2. 2.1. CLIMATE - 2016 - A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies. 2.1.

CLIMATE - 2016 - A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Adaptation is the “adjustment of natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm and exploits beneficial opportunities” ([3], p. 4). The goal of adaptation, a term originating in biology and ecology, is not only to minimize adverse effects but also to maximize potential opportunities [7]. CCA is fundamentally connected to the management of climate-related risk such as droughts or heat waves and for this reason effective DRR efforts should strengthen CCA [7,8,9]. On the other hand, DRR is “the concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, decreased vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events” ([3], p. 10).

CCA constitutes the following [10]: 2.2. AGRO PARITECH - 2009 - Thèse en ligne : Lehuger, Simon (2009) Modélisation des bilans de gaz à effet de serre des agro-écosystèmes en Europe. Doctorat Sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement, UMR Environnement et Grandes Cultures, AgroParistech 2009AG. Food Research International Volume 68, February 2015, A risk modeling framework to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptation on food and water safety.

Tropentag 2010 - International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development. Tropentag 2010: World food system –A contribution from Europe September 14 - 16, 2010, Zurich, Switzerland Scientific Groups: Food security and food qualityFood productionFood quality and technologyFood intake and nutritional impact Natural resources ManagementNutrient cycling and crop nutritionForest managementWater managementEcosystem servicesBiodiversityLand and soil use Plant systemsAgronomic practicesBiotic and abiotic stress (DPG session)Genetic resourcesMixed cropping, agroforestry and biofuelsRice researchAgronomic practices - Poster session IAgronomic practices - Poster session IIBiotic and abiotic stress (DPG session) - Poster session IBiotic and abiotic stress (DPG session) - Poster session II Animal sciencesAnimal breeding, husbandry and healthForages and feeding systemsAnimal nutrition and supplementationAquaculture and fisheries Chair: Anne Biewald, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany Lead paper Oral Presentations — full paper (pdf) MST.

Tropentag 2010 - International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development

Posters — poster (pdf) CEPII - DEC 2009 - Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation. Comité National Français du Changement Global (CNFCG) MAI 2006 Au sommaire:Le réchauffement climatique dans les scénarios futurs. Evolution des températures La répartition des changements de température ou de précipitation est comparable à très grande échelle d’espace (tropiques, moyennes et hautes latitudes, continents par rapport aux océans) entre les deux modèles (figures 3 et 4).

Comité National Français du Changement Global (CNFCG) MAI 2006 Au sommaire: Le réchauffement climatique dans les scénarios futurs : les nouveaux résultats des modèles français – guatemalt

Cependant, à l’échelle d’une région particulière de la planète (comme l’Atlantique Nord ou les régions de mousson), les différences sont notables.

Comité National Français du Changement Global (CNFCG) MAI 2006 Au sommaire:Le réchauffement climatique dans les scénarios futurs

La plus grande disparité sur l’amplitude et la répartition géographique des précipitations provient du caractère de très petite échelle des nuages et de la pluie. Les processus de petite échelle sont difficiles à représenter dans les modèles climatiques, d’où l’intérêt d’utiliser différents modèles. Une analyse approfondie de l’origine des différences permettra de mieux appréhender la question des incertitudes. Pour analyser ces simulations, les chercheurs du CNRM, du CERFACS, de l’IPSL et d’autres laboratoires du CNRS comme le LGGE, se sont ralliés sous la bannière du projet ESCRIME.

X ENVIRONNEMENT MAI 2000 Dossier Réchauffement climatique. Au sommaire:Pourquoi les modèles n'ont pas tort. INRA CLERMONT FERRAND - Résumé de THESE DE DOCTORAT de l'Université Blaise Pascal Clermont II, Ecole Doctorale Science et Vie de. Coût du changement climatique.