PLOS 06/04/16 Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures. Abstract We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa.
We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. Editor: Zhen Jin, Shanxi University, CHINA Received: November 6, 2015; Accepted: March 13, 2016; Published: April 6, 2016 Copyright: © 2016 Guo et al. Introduction Results Fig 1. Where. PLOS 02/02/17 Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease. Abstract Background Despite the notoriety of Ebola virus disease (EVD) as one of the world’s most deadly infections, EVD has a wide range of outcomes, where asymptomatic infection may be almost as common as fatality.
With increasingly sensitive EVD diagnosis, there is a need for more accurate prognostic tools that objectively stratify clinical severity to better allocate limited resources and identify those most in need of intensive treatment. PLOS 15/11/16 Minimally Symptomatic Infection in an Ebola ‘Hotspot’: A Cross-Sectional Serosurvey. Abstract Introduction Evidence for minimally symptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infection is limited.
During the 2013–16 outbreak in West Africa, it was not considered epidemiologically relevant to published models or projections of intervention effects. In order to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of EBOV in humans, we investigated the occurrence of minimally symptomatic EBOV infection in quarantined contacts of reported Ebola virus disease cases in a recognized ‘hotspot.’ Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey in Sukudu, Kono District, Sierra Leone, from October 2015 to January 2016.
PLOS 12/10/16 Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators. Abstract Background The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic.
While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered. PLOS 23/08/16 Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014–2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey. Abstract Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia.
However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. Author Summary. PLOS 19/07/16 Heterogeneity in District-Level Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease during the 2013-2015 Epidemic in West Africa. Abstract The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa in 2013–2015 spread heterogeneously across the three hardest-hit countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and the estimation of national transmission of EVD provides little information about local dynamics.
To investigate district-level transmissibility of EVD, we applied a statistical modelling approach to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for each affected district and each country using weekly incident case numbers. We estimated growth rates during the early exponential phase of the outbreak using exponential regression of the case counts on the first eight weeks since onset. To take into account the heterogeneity between and within countries, we fitted a mixed effects model and calculated R0 based on the predicted individual growth rates and the reported serial interval distribution.
Author Summary Editor: Andrew Fenton, University of Liverpool, UNITED KINGDOM Copyright: © 2016 Krauer et al. Introduction A. PLOS 29/02/16 Presence and Persistence of Ebola or Marburg Virus in Patients and Survivors: A Rapid Systematic Review. Abstract Background The 2013–15 Ebola outbreak was unprecedented due to sustained transmission within urban environments and thousands of survivors.
In 2014 the World Health Organization stated that there was insufficient evidence to give definitive guidance about which body fluids are infectious and when they pose a risk to humans. PLOS 15/06/15 Acceptability and Willingness-to-Pay for a Hypothetical Ebola Virus Vaccine in Nigeria. PLOS 11/06/15 Mass Media and the Contagion of Fear: The Case of Ebola in America. Abstract Background In the weeks following the first imported case of Ebola in the U.
S. on September 29, 2014, coverage of the very limited outbreak dominated the news media, in a manner quite disproportionate to the actual threat to national public health; by the end of October, 2014, there were only four laboratory confirmed cases of Ebola in the entire nation. PLOS 03/11/14 Conservancy of mAb Epitopes in Ebolavirus Glycoproteins of Previous and 2014 Outbreaks. Background: Several monoclonal antibodies (mAb) are being evaluated as treatment options for the current 2014 Ebola outbreak.
But they were derived from and tested for protection against the older 1976 Mayinga or 1995 Kikwit Zaire Ebolaviruses (EBOV). The EBOV sequences reported for the current outbreak contain several mutations whose significance remained to be established. Methods: We analyzed sequence and structural conservation of the Ebolavirus glycoprotein (GP) epitopes for all experimentally identified protective mAbs published to date.
Results: The conservancy analysis of protective mAb epitopes in the Ebolavirus glycoprotein sequences spanning all Ebola virus lineages since 1976 showed that conservancy within the Zaire EBOV lineage was high, with only one immunodominant epitope of mAb 13F6-1-2 acquiring two novel mutations in the 2014 outbreak that might potentially change the antibody specificity and neutralization activity. Introduction Methods. PLOS 09/07/14 Ebola Outbreak Response; Experience and Development of Screening Tools for Viral Haemorrhagic Fever (VHF) in a HIV Center of Excellence Near to VHF Epicentres.
Abstract Introduction There have been 3 outbreaks of viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) in Uganda in the last 2 years.
VHF often starts with non-specific symptoms prior to the onset of haemorrhagic signs. HIV clinics in VHF outbreak countries such as Uganda see large numbers of patients with HIV 1/2 infection presenting with non-specific symptoms every day. Whilst there are good screening tools for general health care facilities expecting VHF suspects, we were unable to find tools for use in HIV or other non-acute clinics. Methods We designed tools to help with communication to staff, infection control and screening of HIV patients with non-specific symptoms in a large HIV clinic during the outbreaks in Uganda.
Results. PLOS 02/09/14 Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak. Background: The 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak is so far the largest and deadliest recorded in history. The affected countries, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Nigeria, have been struggling to contain and to mitigate the outbreak. The ongoing rise in confirmed and suspected cases, 2615 as of 20 August 2014, is considered to increase the risk of international dissemination, especially because the epidemic is now affecting cities with major commercial airports.
Method: We use the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic, individual based simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding, among other measures, the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. The mobility model integrates daily airline passenger traffic worldwide and the disease model includes the community, hospital, and burial transmission dynamic. We use a multimodel inference approach calibrated on data from 6 July to the date of 9 August 2014.
Data. PLOS - PLOS Resources on Ebola. Virginia Barbour, Medicine & Biology Editorial Director at PLOS, on the urgent need for Open Access research into the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. This post was updated on November 21st to include new research published in PLOS Pathogens and new commentary published in PLOS Currents Outbreaks. This post was updated on September 19th, October 9th, 15th and 17th, and November 2nd, 3rd, 13th and 14th to include new content from PLOS Currents Outbreaks, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases and Speaking of Medicine. PLOS 23/05/12 Recovery Potential of a Western Lowland Gorilla Population following a Major Ebola Outbreak: Results from a Ten Ye. Investigating the recovery capacity of wildlife populations following demographic crashes is of great interest to ecologists and conservationists.
Opportunities to study these aspects are rare due to the difficulty of monitoring populations both before and after a demographic crash. PLOS 26/06/12 Ebola and Marburg Hemorrhagic Fevers: Neglected Tropical Diseases? Abstract Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) and Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF) are rare viral diseases, endemic to central Africa. The overall burden of EHF and MHF is small in comparison to the more common protozoan, helminth, and bacterial diseases typically referred to as neglected tropical diseases (NTDs).
PLOS 20/10/11 Discovery of an Ebolavirus-Like Filovirus in Europe. Abstract Filoviruses, amongst the most lethal of primate pathogens, have only been reported as natural infections in sub-Saharan Africa and the Philippines. Infections of bats with the ebolaviruses and marburgviruses do not appear to be associated with disease. Here we report identification in dead insectivorous bats of a genetically distinct filovirus, provisionally named Lloviu virus, after the site of detection, Cueva del Lloviu, in Spain. Author Summary. PLOS 24/05/11 The Use of a Mobile Laboratory Unit in Support of Patient Management and Epidemiological Surveillance during the 2.
PLOS 03/11/14 Conservancy of mAb Epitopes in Ebolavirus Glycoproteins of Previous and 2014 Outbreaks.