(49) noestimates. The Best Project Forecasting Tools for Project Managers - PM Column. As a person who previously worked in a project management software company and monitored technology trends in the domain, I learned there are many project forecasting tools powered by predictive analytics that can cure the most nagging pains of project experts and improve project performance overall.
At the same time, I noticed that project managers wouldn’t believe that a piece of forecasting software can improve project performance. Many felt uncomfortable with the idea to share their project data. Many were skeptical. Skepticism, clearly, was the first reason to keep them away from enjoying a major benefit – the possibility to travel in time. What is predictive analytics in project management? If you ask me, predictive analytics in project management is software functionality that helps managers see beyond their capacity. Why you might be wasting your time with Story Point estimation - IANCARROLL.COM. Why software projects take longer than you think – a statistical model. Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard.
It’s hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something. One pet theory I’ve had for a really long time, is that some of this is really just a statistical artifact. Let’s say you estimate a project to take 1 week. Let’s say there are three equally likely outcomes: either it takes 1/2 week, or 1 week, or 2 weeks. The median outcome is actually the same as the estimate: 1 week, but the mean (aka average, aka expected value) is 7/6 = 1.17 weeks. Agile Release Planning: Estimate, Predict, Commit. Your boss wants a commitment.
You want to offer a prediction. Agile, you say, only allows you to estimate and predict – not to commit. “Horse-hockey!” Your boss exclaims, “I want one throat to choke, and it will be yours if you don’t make a commitment and meet it.” There’s a way to keep yourself off the corporate gallows – estimate, predict, and commit – using agile principles. This is an article about agile product management and release planning. In the dark ages before your team became agile, you would make estimates and commitments.
Software Estimation. Meeting project deadlines amidst last-minute change requests, new additions to requests, and modifications can be challenging.
This requires setting... A lot of discussion in the software development community surrounds the debate around two point of views related to software estimation – Yes to... Forecasting - Forecasting using data - Medium. This chapter introduces the basic concepts of forecasting and sets the scene for how we will explore this topic in this book.
COSMIC Software Sizing - advanced, open source, ISO standard. Validate user stories for faster, better, cheaper software projects. LKNA13: How to Measure Anything: An Introduction from the Author - Douglas Hubbard. Best practice for estimating development tasks? Not a list of resources - but my rules (to myself) for estimating are below.
My personal bias is that I really dislike under-estimating, and I typically over estimate how long tasks will take (by design) - but usually it's pretty close (i.e. not an order of magnitude off). 1. Usually, the smallest unit is a week. When people say something will take a day, it's usually wishful thinking - they forget about meetings, other commitments, etc. 2. 3. 4. Die „Cone of Uncertainty“ oder Schätzen war immer unmöglich › borisgloger consulting. Schätzen in Software Projekten war schon immer ein Desaster.
Schon vor über 30 Jahren hat die NASA herausgefunden, dass zu Anfang eines Software Entwicklungsprojektes die Schätzungen so ungenau sind, dass man davon ausgehen kann, dass man sich um den Faktor 4 verschätzt habe. Meine Suche nach „Cone of Uncertainty“ in Google hat doch tatsächlich gezeigt, dass es dazu fast nichts brauchbares im Internet gibt. Der deutsche Artikel in Wikipedia dazu ist vollkommen unbrauchbar. Der englische Wikipedia Artikel dazu ist wesentlich besser. Meine Einschätzung, dass die Leute dieses Wissen also ignorieren ist damit zutreffen. „The original conceptual basis of the Cone of Uncertainty was developed by Barry Boehm (Boehm 1981, p. 311). My Slicing Heuristic Concept Explained – Neil Killick's blog — Shifting conventional thinking to the right. This is a concept I devised a couple of years ago, and it seems there is a new #NoEstimates audience that would like to know more about it.
A Slicing Heuristic is essentially: An explicit policy that describes how to "slice" work Just-In-Time to help us create consistency, a shared language for work and better predictability. Crucially, the heuristic also describes success criteria to ensure it is achieving the level of predictability we require. The Slicing Heuristic is intended to replace deterministic estimation rituals by incorporating empirical measurement of actual cycle times for the various types of work in your software delivery lifecycle.
It is most effective when used for all levels of work, but can certainly be used for individual work types. However, if you are able to incorporate this concept from the portfolio level down, the idea is that you define each work type (e.g. For example, "A feature ready to be worked on must consist of no more than 4 groomed user stories" or. SCAF - Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting. Forprin Home. LKNA15: When Do You Want It? Probabilistic Forecasting Anyone Can Do - Larry Maccherone.