Ukraine and the EU: turning the Association Agreement into a success story. Ukraine and the EU: turning the Association Agreement into a success story 23 April 2014by: Kataryna Wolczuk It is paradoxical and symbolic that it has taken Ukraine two waves of mass protests to conclude a new agreement with the EU. As a result, the political and geopolitical implications of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine are very high. This means that it cannot be regarded merely as one of many trade agreements signed by the EU with its numerous trading partners. More attention needs to be paid to the role and impact of the Association Agreement on Ukraine. This requires screening, prioritising and sequencing of the approximation process at the national, sectoral and regional levels.
Ukraine and the EU. Ukraine on the edge. Ukraine on the edge 24 April 2014by: Amanda Paul During the past six months Ukraine has been through a revolution, its Crimean peninsula has been annexed by Russia and its territorial integrity continues to be challenged. With ongoing unrest in three Eastern regions, a peace deal recently agreed in Geneva hangs by a thread as pro-Russian separatists continue to occupy numerous public buildings and international actors remain divided over how long to wait for Russia to implement the accord before placing new sanctions. While the West accuses Russia of provoking and influencing the unrest, Russia points the finger at Ukraine’s interim leadership which it claims is illegal and “fascist”. Unless the unrest can be halted there is a serious risk it may increase, jeopardising crucial Presidential elections scheduled for 25 May.
The international community’s response to the most serious challenge to the post-Cold War order has been inadequate. A legacy of corrupt governance Next steps. Transnistria - Where to? Transnistria - Where to? 13 March 2014by: Paul Ivan At the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership in November 2013, Moldova initialled its Association Agreement with the EU, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement, and is expected to sign the documents before the end of August 2014. Meanwhile, Russia has increased its presence and pressure in the region, as a consequence of which Armenia declined the AA and DCFTA with the EU and Ukraine, after months of protests and political paralysis, now has part of its territory occupied by Russia.
Moldova is no exception to Russian pressure. As the country gets closer to upgrading relations with the EU, Russia has increased its activities in Moldova, including in the autonomous region of Gagauzia and in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Even though the “5+2” negotiations for the settlement of the Transnistria conflict continue, the number of incidents in and around this region have increased.
Paul Ivan - Transnistria: Where to? Helping Moldova stay on the EU course - Proposals for a real 'more for more' approach. Helping Moldova stay on the EU course - Proposals for a real 'more for more' approach 11 December 2013by: Victor Chirila, Cristian Ghinea and Amanda Paul At the Vilnius Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in November, Moldova initialled its Association Agreement including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU and became the first EaP country to meet all the requirements of their Visa Liberalisation Action Plan. 2014 may prove to be a make or break year for Moldova, with Chisinau facing a number of serious challenges.
From the EU’s point of view, it could also prove to be a make or break year for the Eastern Partnership. The period following Vilnius should be a soul-searching time for the EU. Helping Moldova stay on the EU course. Ukraine in deadlock – What next? Ukraine in deadlock – What next? 12 February 2014by: Vasyl Filipchuk and Amanda Paul Some two months since Ukrainians took to the streets, a political solution to the standoff between the EuroMaidan protestors and the Ukrainian authorities remains out of reach, with the situation on the ground remaining volatile.
As the clock ticks there is fear that further violence and instability could be on the horizon. Further turmoil risks Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with talk of division and calls for Moscow to intervene coming from a number of Party of Regions speakers. It also increases the likelihood of new security threats going beyond Ukraine’s border including refugees and asylum seekers. Furthermore, as the political crisis deepens, Ukraine’s economic situation becomes more perilous with the chances of default on its debts rising. Unprecedented Violence Ukraine has a history of peaceful demonstrations and moderate politics. Yanukovych – bruised but not broken Stuck in deadlock. Historic turning point or just another chapter? The results of a foreign-policy summit - Post-Summit Analysis. Historic turning point or just another chapter? The results of a foreign-policy summit - Post-Summit Analysis 24 March 2014by: Janis A. Emmanouilidis The March 2014 European Council could enter the history books as a turning point, not only in the EU’s relations with Russia but also in its role as a foreign policy actor.
Events in Ukraine inevitably dominated the Summit, with EU leaders adopting a balanced approach aimed at achieving three key objectives – de-escalation, containment/deterrence and cooperation – based on political and economic support for Ukraine, increased but limited pressure on Russia, and moves to strengthen ties with other EU neighbours. The Summit also discussed a range of economic and environmental policy issues, with the situation in Ukraine casting a long shadow over the discussion on energy policy, but failed to reach agreement on the EU’s climate goals to 2030, or to put more flesh on the bones of calls for a European “industrial renaissance”.
Russian belligerence and Europe’s energy security. Russian belligerence and Europe’s energy security 19 March 2014by: Annika Ahtonen Recent Russian actions have unequivocally underlined that it does not play by the rules. This provides a wake-up call and should alert not only the countries of the former Soviet Union, but the EU as a whole. For the EU, this has one clear implication: it cannot continue to depend on an unreliable energy supplier, which is prone to use energy as a political tool. Luckily for the EU, summer is approaching and Europeans will need less Russian gas for heating. As the EU’s heads of states and governments gather in the European Council on 20 and 21 March, the developments in Ukraine and the possible Russian illegal annexation of Crimea will undoubtedly dominate the discussions. The EU has foolishly put all its eggs in one basket While the EU’s energy policy has built on the objective to secure cheap and sustainable, reliable supplies of energy, its vulnerability is of its own making.
Will Crimea herald a new post-Cold War era world? Will Crimea herald a new post-Cold War era world? 7 April 2014by: Rosa Balfour The end of the Cold War twenty-five years ago brought about a difficult but manageable world in which Russia, the US, and European countries cooperated to manage common problems. There have been difficult times, with the break up of former Yugoslavia, the NATO intervention for Kosovo, and in 2008 when Russia’s intervention in Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkahzia nearly led to a head to head with the West.
On the whole, the cooperation between old foes which framed the end of the Cold War, resisted these tests. Has Crimea changed this for good? Putin’s speech to the Duma on 18 March also suggests that Russia’s position is backed by an ideology based on the protection of Russian interests outside Russia in the name of ethnic, historical and even religious ties. Russia’s next steps could define the end of the post-Cold War era. The other side of the coin is the relations with Russia. EU’s sanctions against Russia – The need for clear goals. EU’s sanctions against Russia – The need for clear goals 21 March 2014by: Paul Ivan Over the last two decades, the European Union (EU) has increasingly relied on the use of restrictive measures in its external action. The EU has shown itself to be more open to the possibility of resorting to sanctions outside the United Nations, as well as in cooperation with other international actors, such as the United States.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has blocked and is expected to block any efforts of using this international body to address the crisis in Ukraine so the EU cannot hope for a global sanctions regime and is forced to use a unilateral sanctions regime, in cooperation with some other like-minded players (US, Canada, Australia, Japan). i) the role of sanctions in an overall foreign policy strategy; ii) the purpose and goals of the policy in terms of coercing, constraining and signalling; iii) the impact of sanctions and the costs incurred by the EU; External content by EPC experts on Russia, Ukraine and EU relations. NEWS ARTICLE - Ukraine left to fend for itself « Wider Black Sea. Having already had Crimea occupied and annexed by Russia, Ukraine’s government is struggling to hold the rest of the country together as Russia uses covert actions and propaganda to drive unrest, violence and fear.
Meanwhile the international community seems incapable of doing little more than making toothless statements of concern and placing weak sanctions which have so far been totally ineffective in deterring Russian President, Vladimir Putin from further aggression. Earlier this week the Ukrainian authorities deployed an anti-terrorist operation following several days of unrest as pro-Russian armed groups carried out coordinated attacks taking-over police stations and government buildings in towns and cities across eastern Ukraine. The operation is expected to last several days but success is far from guaranteed. While Russia’s leadership continues to claim it has nothing to do with the unrest and is “deeply concerned”, Moscow is not pulling the wool over anybody’s eyes. NEWS ARTICLE - Russian Aggression, International Support and an Action Plan for Ukraine « Wider Black Sea. This analysis was prepared for the International Centre for Policy Studies in Kyiv by Vasyl Filipchuk, Olena Zakharova,and myself (Amanda Paul) Russian aggression in Crimea and power play on the Ukrainian-Russian border has become a key issue of the international agenda today.
Russian actions are aimed at making the world take into consideration its own geopolitical ambitions, enforcing the order of the post-Soviet region which would best fit its interests as well as solving a number of its internal problems. The international community demonstrates an increasingly appropriate response to Russian aggression – it was the stance of global players that became a major counterbalance to the Russian pressure. However, further steps need to be taken by Ukraine’s new leadership to strengthening their institutional capacity in terms of responding to this serious challenge from their neighbour. 1. 1.1. 1.2. Besides, Russia tries to solve the following economic tasks: 1.3. 2.Russian reply to the US. NEWS ARTICLE - Responding to the Russians « Wider Black Sea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating the Crimea crisis every day because he believes in three things. First that Ukraine is too weak to defend her own territory. Secondly, that the West is too feeble, divided and fearful to go beyond harsh rhetoric and half-hearted sanctions. And thirdly that he has impunity because of these reasons. Unless the West is able to shatter this belief, and show it is ready to respond to Russia in a robust an steadfast manner, clearly demonstrating that there is a price to pay for abusing the rules of international order we are going to find ourselves in increasingly hot water. Putin acted towards Crimea just as Nazi Germany did towards Czechoslovakia in 1938 and, as with Hitler, there is a real possibility Putin may not stop with Crimea.
Unfortunately, prospects for bringing about a diplomatic solution seem to have evaporated. The West should implement a broad economic and political isolation of the Kremlin. NEWS ARTICLE - Ukraine: A victim of Euro-Russian divide? - Opinion. Vilnius will be much talked about in Europe. Twenty-two years ago the city was on the Western periphery of the Soviet Union; today it is the capital of Lithuania, a country which joined the European Union in 2004, and has held the Presidency of the EU Council for the past six months. As rotating President of the Union, it organised the Eastern Partnership summit in November, for which Vilnius will be remembered. It should not be surprising that Lithuania organised the big event by bringing together the EU with the six countries which neighbour it to the East - Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Lithuania represents just how much a continent can transform itself. In 1989, all of Europe embarked on a process of knocking down the walls that divided the continent, the real ones - the Berlin Wall - and the imagined ones which separated Europeans politically, physically and culturally. EU-Russia divide How to go forward Others are vehemently opposed to such tactics. NEWS ARTICLE - Europe and Russia: Dancing to different tunes - Opinion. EU leaders met their Russian counterparts in Brussels on January 28. Instead of a two-day summitry of handshakes and discussions over the so-called "strategic partnership" and the "partnership for the modernisation", the EU, for the first time, cut the summit short to a couple of hours and a lunch.
This summit should have been held in December but had been postponed. A few days before the inauguration of the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russian President Vladimir Putin was not happy at the EU's snub. Having played king maker, reaching the agreement with the US over dealing with Syria's chemical weapons' arsenal and, more recently, releasing well known dissidents he had put in prison to vamp up his image, Putin has enjoyed displaying the power he and Russia can still muster.
Indeed Brussels did an unusual display of criticism towards Russia. Many European countries are well known for having good relations with Moscow. Displeasure at Russian behaviour This was too much for Brussels. NEWS ARTICLE - Yanukovych – Between a Rock and a Hard Place « Wider Black Sea. As the saying goes, “you reap what you sow” and Ukraine’s President seems set to face the consequence of the seeds of anger, resentment and disgust that he has sewn in Ukraine.
Despite having spent the last few years eroding democracy, consolidating power and pilfering the country’s wealth, it was ultimately the fact that he misled the nation into believing he was committed to European integration that became the issue that broke the camel’s back. Peaceful protests against his geopolitical U-turn, led to the security forces killing, beating, jailing and torturing. Ukraine has changed forever. It is now a country with Martyrs – brave souls that have lost their lives in the fight for freedom. One way or another Yanukovych‘s days as President of this great nation seem to be numbered. The question is how and when? There seem to be two main options on the table. There are also many other questions that need to be addressed.