Obama 2012

Washington post (mentionmachine) Twitter Predicts Polls [VISUAL] UPDATE Nov. 14: This story has been quoted in Mashable.

Today’s CBS News poll is the top tweet and breaking story of the morning, with Herman Cain leading the 2012 GOP and Newt Gingrich gaining, tied for second with Mitt Romney. That’s no surprise to us at 140elect. Thanks to our Twitter tracking and metrics, we’ve seen this coming for a while. That’s because a change in Twitter following is a leading indicator of polling. News Desk: The Eight-State Election. If you’re looking for a nice primer on the challenges and strategic options facing President Barack Obama as he heads into the 2012 election, I recommend a Brookings paper by William Galston, who does a commendable job synthesizing a great deal of the data and commentary out there about Obama’s prospects for reëlection.

The paper is worth reading in its entirety, but I particularly liked Galston’s detailed discussion of the electoral math facing Obama, who, in Galston’s view, has a choice between an “Ohio strategy” and a “Colorado strategy.” Galston, relying on an analysis by the Republican pollster Bill McInturff, notes that Obama will start 2012 with a base of 215 electoral votes, while his G.O.P. opponent will begin with a base of 162 electoral votes. That would leave thirteen potentially competitive states over which to fight.

Obama for America.