Fundamental Finance. RCSB Links. Economic Impact Studies. Travel & Tourism: TRAVEL AND TOURISM STUDY FINAL REPORT SUMMARY The Rural Center commissioned two professors at the Department of Economics and Finance at Western Carolina University to study the employment impacts of travel and tourism... ESTIMATED ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RECREATIONAL FISHING By Jeff Gunderson & Glenn Kreag. SUMMARY. The recreational fishing industry... [27 Feb 96] University Impacts: THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY || WSU News Release on the Economic Impact ReportNorthern State University [Aberdeen, SD] Caffrey, John and Herbert H. Environmental Impact Analysis: Environmental Impact Analysis: Data Links [USGS: United States Geological Survey] New Plant Location: Gesamtwirtschaftliche und regionale Effekte von Bau und Betrieb eines (Siemens) Halbleiterwerks in Dresden (1997) Other Literature and Paper Reports: Regional Economic Impact Assessments: An Annotated Bibliography of Selected Wisconsin Studies [Staff Paper 97.3, September 1997; by Anna L.
Energy futures as predictors. Many publications use energy futures as proxy measures for market expectations of future energy prices. Does this procedure make sense? Consider the IMF’s recent World Economic Outlook, which included a figure with futures a year ago, and in March. While futures a year ago indicated some decline, the most recent reading indicate persistently high prices. Figure 1.20 from IMF WEO, April 2006. A relevant question is whether futures are actually good predictors of future spot oil prices. The answer is not obvious — for instance, for currencies futures aren’t good predictors.
It turns out that in a horse race against a random walk and a simple time series (ARIMA) model, futures do not have the smallest mean error. Table 2 from Chinn, Coibion and LeBlanc (2005). On the other hand, futures do have the smallest mean squared errors. One caveat to this conclusion is that our results only apply to horizons of up to one year. Econbrowser.