Hyperinflation: Iran's way out – possibly – Telegraph Blogs. Iran's national currency, the Rial A fifty eighth country will soon have to be added to the brilliant Hanke-Krus hyperinflation table, which documents every known case of hyperinflation to have taken place in the last century. That country is Iran, which according to Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, is now experiencing price inflation of close to 70pc a month. For those interested in taking a look at all the others cases of hyperinflation, click on the table beneath. Enjoy. click to enlarge True enough, Iran is not yet up there with the best of them – at the height of the Hungarian hyperinflation of 1946, prices were doubling every 15 hours – but it is getting there. In any case, we no longer have any entirely reliable way of knowing what's happening to prices, beyond on the ground anecdotal evidence.
As I say, it's virtually impossible to understand fully what's going on in the Iranian economy. Commodity market’s algorithmic challenge. Photo Credit:Reuters/Mosab Omar Dubai's gross domestic product is expected to reach USD 107.1 billion, posting a growth rate of 6.1% in 2014 and exceeding Dubai government's estimates of 5%, according to Citibank. Latest available data from Dubai Statistics Department pegged the emirate's economy at nearly USD 45 billion in the first half of 2013.
Dubai's economy has been on a tear over the past 12 month with a slew of data pointing to a new surge in construction activity and a rapid increase in overseas demand for the emirate's travel, logistics and tourism industries. Corporate earnings in Dubai also rose 36.8% last year, highlighting the fast pace of growth across the economy. The value of projects under way has also picked up, while bank liquidity is much improved. "While making the debt burden more manageable, this does not, however, remove all refinancing risk in the emirate, in our view. "Repayments are to be made using the proceeds of asset sales when this happens.
. © Zawya 2014. The policies of successive governments have worsened this situation. The “dash for gas” in the Nineties accelerated depletion of our gas reserves. Labour’s dithering over nuclear power put replacement of our ageing reactors at least a decade behind schedule, and a premature abandonment of coal has taken place alongside an inconsistent, scattergun approach to renewables.
Those who claim that Britain faces an energy squeeze are right, then. But those who claim that the answer is using fracking to extract gas from shale formations are guilty of putting hope ahead of reality. The example held up by the pro-fracking lobby is, of course, the United States, where fracking has produced so much gas that the market has been oversupplied, forcing gas prices sharply downwards.
The trouble with this parallel is that it is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the US shale story. We now have more than enough data to know what has really happened in America. The key word here, though, is "initial". By Joel Guglietta While global financial markets are still levitating somewhere between the stratosphere and the Kingdom of Asgard, by 60°24′31″ North and 172°43′12″ West, in the middle of nowhere, an isolated island of 137.857 sq-mi holds the key of three major economic developments and risks: November 2013, Lawrence Summers raised the question whether the “secular stagnation” and the impossibility for the US and other major economies to grow without the help of recurring bubbles was not doomed to become the “new normal”.March 2014, the Conference Board released a study (figure 1) showing the falling trend in global total factor productivity, i.e. in the share of output not explained by the “accumulation of factors” (more on this economic jargon below).March 2014 again, the NASA published a research paper answering to “widespread concerns that current trends in resource-used are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial”.
Source: NASA, 2014. Commodity market’s algorithmic challenge. © Reuters Current gas prices are shown at a Shell gas station in Encinitas, California2/2 By Dmitry Zhdannikov and David Sheppard LONDON (Reuters) - Demand for oil in 2015 will grow far slower than previously forecast as global economies remain weak, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, and prices may extend their sharp fall so long as OPEC shows no sign of countering a supply surge. The IEA said it cut its 2015 estimate for oil demand growth by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its previous forecast and now expects demand growth of 1.1 million bpd to 93.5 million.
It cut its 2014 estimate by 200,000 bpd to 0.7 million bpd. It said demand would be supported by prices near four year lows - oil But it added that those low prices would remain under pressure because of supply levels: Global oil supply rose by almost 910,000 bpd in September to 93.8 million bpd, almost 2.8 million bpd higher than the previous year. (Editing by Sophie Walker) US Gasoline Sales Show No Sign Of Economic Recovery. The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on volume sales is over two months old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-October, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US economy. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series. Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, I've added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends.
The latest 12-month MA is 8.7% below the all-time high set in August 2005, fractionally off (by 0.25%) the interim low set two months earlier in August 2014. Click for a larger image The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line). (Click here for the latest commodity prices.) The CRB Index, heavily weighted with age, has also declined measurably from its recent peak. Likewise, despite geopolitical hot spots around the world, energy prices have also dropped from recent highs. While oil remains stubbornly above $100 a barrel, both at home and abroad. Were it not for recent events in Ukraine and the Middle East, oil prices may have continued their recent dip below that century mark. Natural gas prices have slumped to below $4 per thousand BTUs, the lowest level in months, if not years.
Milder summer weather around the country, and burgeoning supplies of natural gas, have caused these prices to crash from their all-time highs. Consumers use natural gas to power their homes, from electrical power to heating and air-conditioning. Power bills are likely to fall this summer — a boon to disposable income. Even more telling is the level of interest rate and the slope of the yield curve.
Effect of Declining Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries By Roy Mathew Introduction The price of oil is of critical importance to today's world economy, given that oil is the largest internationally traded good, both in volume and value terms, creating what some analysts have called a hydrocarbon economy. In addition, the prices of energy-intensive goods and services are linked to energy prices, of which oil makes up the single most important share.
Finally, the price of oil is linked to some extent to the price of other fuels. Therefore, abrupt changes in the pi-ice of oil have wide-ranging ramifications for both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries. The sharp decline in world oil prices since late 1997 certainly qualify as an abrupt and significant change. Oil Price History and Analysis - Post World War 11 Oil prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings ill times of shortage or oversupply. Pre Embargo Period Yom Kippur War – Arab Oil Embargo 1. 2. 3. 4. Algeria 1. The Failure Of QE2: A Look At Gold, Oil, Equities, Treasuries, Emerging Mar. PDF: What is driving oil futures prices ? OPEC leader sees oil prices shooting back to $200 a barrel - Feb. 3, 2015. Not only that, but he sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future.
He's far from the only one that sees a return of triple-digit oil prices. Finding a bottom: According to recent comments by the Secretary-General when he was in London, the oil market doesn't need to look for oil prices to bottom as the market has already bottomed. Instead, he offered quite bullish comments by saying, "Now the prices are around $45-$55, and I think maybe they [have] reached the bottom and we [will] see some rebound very soon. " Normally that type of remark would be just another layer of noise, but this is coming from OPEC's Secretary-General so it comes with a lot of weight behind it. Related: Apple stock is at a new high -- 3 reasons not to sell That said, he's not saying that OPEC will come in and rescue the oil market by reversing its previous decision to hold steady on production.
Related: 3 Bold Bets for Tesla in 2015. From Jawad Mian of Outside the Box Investment Observations The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario.
The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, and an unwind of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Everyone believes that the oil-price decline is temporary. By 2020, we see oil demand realistically rising to no more than 96 million barrels a day. The oil market will remain well supplied, even at lower prices. Our analysis leads us to conclude that the price of oil is unlikely to average $100 again for the remaining decade. Source: Bloomberg How will this be resolved? Any Seasonality for Oil Prices? - CXO Advisory. A reader asked whether oil prices exhibit seasonality. To check, we investigate three monthly series: (1) spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil since the beginning of 1986 (26+ years); (2) nearest expiration futures prices for this same crude oil since April 1983 (29 years); and, (3) and prices for the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index exchange-traded notes (OIL) since August 2006 (only about six years).
Using monthly prices from the respective inception months through June 2012, we find that: The following chart shows average change in WTI crude oil spot price by calendar month over the available sample period, and over two equal subperiods. Notable indications are: Oil price tends to rise with some consistency during January, April, May and August.Oil price tends to fall with some consistency during November and December. For additional perspective on variability, we look at standard deviations of price changes by month. How do returns for OIL compare? Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011. Which Oil Producers Are Breaking Even? - WSJ.com. US shale oil and gas producers are victims of their own success - FT.com. FACTBOX-Oil prices below most OPEC producers' budget needs | Reuters.
China’s Oil Hoarding Is Raising Prices. China has been buying up oil at a record pace in order to stockpile reserves for a rainy day as part of its strategy to insulate the country from geopolitical conflict or supply disruptions. It’s modeled after the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). However, the heightened rate at which China is purchasing oil is driving up global oil prices. Dating back to the oil embargo of 1973, the U.S. government has maintained an SPR to guard against future oil supply disruptions and/or price spikes. Located in salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, the Department of Energy’s SPR has a capacity of 727 million barrels of storage. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) – whose 29 members include Western countries plus Australia, Korea, and Japan – are required to hold the equivalent of 90 days’ worth of oil supply in a reserve. China, who is not a member of the IEA, for years did not have significant volumes of oil set aside as in a reserve.
Click here to get the free guide now. Petroleum Insights: U.S. Crude Oil Production, 1970-2010 -- EIA. These countries are getting killed by cheap oil prices - Oct. 30, 2014. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Oil is selling for roughly $83 a barrel on the global market. That's bad news for Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, among others.
They need the black stuff to trade at far loftier levels in order to balance their budgets. Iran's budget, for example, is built on oil at $135 dollars per barrel, according to data from Deutsche Bank and Thomson Reuters compiled by DoubleLine Capital. Russia has oil budgeted at $100, while Saudi Arabia will break even at $95 per barrel. "All the oil producers are feeling it. Now the question is who can withstand it the most," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at the Price Futures Group. Related: Oil will tumble to $70 says new 'bond king' Drill or die: Flynn claims that energy producing nations will continue to pump up production because they don't want to risk losing market share.
"It's like a staring contest of who can last the longest selling oil below their budget point. Nigeria, on the other hand, isn't as fortunate. Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived | Zero Hedge. Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity blog, If you've watch the previous video chapter on Peak Cheap Oil, you may be wondering how any of that could be still be true given all the positive recent stories about shale oil and shale gas , many of which have proclaimed that “Peak Oil is dead”. The mainstream press has faithfully repeated every press and PR statement made by the shale producers. And if you simply followed the headlines, you might even believe this about the US: It is soon going to be energy independent,Its oil production will surpass even Saudi Arabia putting it in the number one spot,andThe US will even be exporting oil again like the days of old.
The only problem with this story is that it is misleading in some very important ways. And entirely false in others. Here are there are five main things to know about the shale plays. They deplete very quickly. In many ways, the increased crude output from shale plays has bought us some time. Oil trade in throes of historic shift - FT.com. Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession. Yesterday I pulled into my local gas station and went through the automated motions of filling up my non-green, oil consuming, emission generating vehicle while thinking about my day of meetings ahead of me. While the pump did its job I checked my email and scrolled the web for the latest headlines out of Europe. As the pump shut off I extracted the nozzle from my car and replaced it on the pump while looking up to see what the damage was going to be to my credit card. What? I had to look twice as the pump read $39.02. As I got back into my car I decided to do two things: 1) take myself out to a more expensive lunch today with my new found savings; and 2) I quickly scrolled my phone to find the price of oil.
When I got to the office my first thought was to look at the correlation between oil and gasoline prices. What was surprising with the most recent data was the shear magnitude of the divergence between oil and gas prices. U.S. to become biggest oil producer and energy independent - Nov. 12, 2012. World Crude Oil Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day) Guest Post: Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse? | ZeroHedge.
Commodities | Forex Blog. 'Perfect storm' on the horizon for commodity FX bit.ly/1rGjzYe. Average natural gas prices compared for the US, UK, France, Germany and Jap. The American Myth of Cheap Oil and Gas - Bloomberg View. These countries are getting killed by cheap oil prices - Oct. 30, 2014. OPEC leader sees oil prices shooting back to $200 a barrel - Feb. 3, 2015. Any Seasonality for Oil Prices? - CXO Advisory. Petroleum Insights: U.S. Crude Oil Production, 1970-2010 -- EIA. Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived | Zero Hedge. Hyperinflation: Iran's way out – possibly – Telegraph Blogs.
Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession. Oil trade in throes of historic shift - FT.com. Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011. PIMCO | - Game Changer. U.S. to become biggest oil producer and energy independent - Nov. 12, 2012. 14 maps that explain ISIS. Hend on Twitter: "The best #ISIS political cartoon I've seen. The Economist on Twitter: "The price of oil has been tumbling. The cost of finding it has not. Saudi Arabia Can Afford to Keep Oil Prices Low for Years to Come. Mr. Crude Meet Mr. Minsky | Seeking Alpha. The Importance Of The Cancellation Of South Stream. Master Stroke by OPEC. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Russian Ruble, Turkish Lira, Ukrainian Hryvnia Hit Record Lows; Global Currency Crisis on Deck << Posted from @EconomicsReddit.
On the eve of 2015, oil and the US economy are already dictating the shape of investment - Perspectives Pictet. Khamenei.ir sur Twitter : "Photos of today’s visit made by Air Force commanders to Ayatollah Khamenei. نسخه قابل چاپ - دیدارکارکنان و فرماندهان نیروی هوایی با فرمانده کل قوا/ مجموعه تصاویر. Imam Khomeini sur Twitter : "February 11, 1986 Have you imagined that Iran was such as in current state from very begin… Instagram. George Dorgan sur Twitter : "#OPEC learned in 1997/1998 #oil crisis.Now they coordinate prices, Crude=55$, Brent=60$ for years, too low for #Shale. George Dorgan sur Twitter : "Did #OPEC want to drive sbody out of #oil market in 1997/1998, same as they do with #Shale today? Russia, Venezuela? George Dorgan sur Twitter : "Speculators still have a desire to create a #contango. High valuations of equity markets help to think #oil rebounds. George Dorgan sur Twitter : "#Shale production until reserves are depleted & firms bankrupt is pretty similar to stock piling in 1997/1998 #oil.
Exclusive - U.S. airlines confront cheap oil's flip side: costly hedges. Oil hits April 2009 low, then pares loss on U.S. oil rig data. SAFE sur Twitter : "& here's a #chart RT @JKempEnergy: Massive decline in US oil drilling -- largest weekly fall since 1991... Chapter 2: Religion and Politics. Views of the United States and American Foreign Policy. Conrad Hackett sur Twitter : "2006 cartoon controversy: Muslims blamed Western disrespect, others blamed Muslim intolerance. Conrad Hackett sur Twitter : "How people in 7 Muslim-majority countries say women should dress. George Dorgan sur Twitter : "#Iran Dresscode, in 1978 very Western (No6) , but still today quite modern (No5) @IRKhomeini.
Imam Khomeini sur Twitter : "February 11, 1985 Today, when the breeze of wakefulness is blowing throughout the world an… Instagram. Imam Khomeini sur Twitter : "February 22, 1989 mission of the theological seminary; charter of the clergy At the relig… Instagram. What ISIS Really Wants. Oil companies: Unsustainable energy. Emerging Markets and Global Oil Demand. Forget U.S. Energy Independence, Chinese Consumption Growth Will Drive Prices too High. Uk.businessinsider. Oil. Dr. Ed's Blog. World Crude Oil Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)