India growth figures baffle economists. 9 February 2015Last updated at 09:02 ET Many experts say the economy is still waiting to gather momentum The Indian economy grew by 7.5% between October and December compared with the same period a year earlier, official figures say. But there was confusion regarding the statistics after the way in which the gross domestic product (GDP) figure was calculated was changed.
Economists warned the figures needed to be treated with caution. Growth for the previous three months was also revised up sharply to 8.2% from an earlier figure of 5.3%. And India's statistics ministry revised up its forecast for annual economic growth to 7.4% for the year to the end of March. That compared with a previous forecast of 6.9% using the new formula, and 4.7% before the revised formula was introduced. The country's new way of calculating GDP has baffled analysts since its release last month.
India said the new formula is closer to international standards. Slowdown 9 February 2015Last updated at 09:02 ET Slowdown. An Introduction to Aggregate Demand. An Introduction to Aggregate Supply. UK economic growth to fall to 2.4% in 2015, says EY Item Club. 19 October 2014Last updated at 19:04 ET The weak eurozone means export prospects look "dreadful", says the EY Item Club The UK economy will grow by 2.4% in 2015, well below the 3.1% growth expected this year, forecasting group EY Item Club has said. It says the forthcoming election and accompanying political uncertainty will hold business back from investing. Growth will also be constrained by worries about the eurozone and the Ukraine conflict, EY Item Club says.
The 2.4% figure undershoots forecasts issued by the Bank of England, the CBI and the International Monetary Fund. Last week, the Bank's chief economist, Andrew Haldane, said he was downbeat over the UK economy because of weaker global growth, low wage growth and financial and political risks. He said interest rates should remain low to avoid long-term economic stagnation. 'Dreadful' Peter Spencer, EY Item Club's chief economic adviser, said: "The forecast for GDP growth is still relatively good.
Tech firms growing at four times rate of UK GDP. Britain’s technology businesses are expecting to grow at an exponential rate this year, with the average firm forecasting an 11pc rise in sales, four times the growth in UK GDP growth, which hit 2.6pc in 2014. According to the companies polled in Barclays’ Fast Growth Tech survey, this growth rate will accelerate again next year, with the average technology firm expecting an additional 15pc in 2016. Of the technology CEOs polled, 16pc are seeking growth of 20pc. “The fact that many firms are expecting further growth in 2016 shows that this trend isn’t transient and the UK is a real launch pad for innovative tech businesses,” said Sean Duffy, managing director of Barclays’ Technology, Media and Telecoms division, which commissioned the research.
“Investors are seeing the UK as an international talent magnet and a platform to grow or launch their business for a number of compelling reasons, including the culture, light-touch regulation, supportive Government policies and access to finance.” Is private sector debt sinking China? | Economics. The title itself was exciting: ‘Is capitalism doomed to have crises?’ Judging by the beards and dress style of the audience, many may have expected a Corbynesque rant. Instead, we heard an elegant exposition based on a set of non-linear differential equations. Private sector debt is the sum of the debts held by individuals and the debts of companies, excluding financial sector ones like banks.
He pointed out that in the decade prior to the massive crash of 1929, the size of private debt relative to the output of the economy as a whole (GDP) rose by well over 50 per cent. The increase from the late 1990s onwards meant that debt once again reached dizzy heights. Japan experienced a huge financial crash at the end of the 1980s. In China, in 2005, the value of private debt was around 1.2 times GDP. So is it all doom and gloom? Up to a point, Lord Copper. Japanese shares fell 80 per cent and have not yet recovered their late 1980s levels. China’s textile exports decline in 2015 | Economics. The contraction of overseas sales is a good pointer to the short and medium term challenges facing this sector as the sands of comparative advantage shift decisively to Southeast Asian economies such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia.
A large depreciation in the external value of the Japanese yen - Japan is a key export market for ChinaA weaker Euro and continued slow growth of consumer demand in many Euro Zone economies - another key export destination for Chinese apparel Transnational corporations shifting their textile manufacturing to Southeast Asia where labour costs are three to four times cheaperOperating costs have also been increased by the growing burden of environmental controls imposed by the Chinese governmentChina's textile export to the European Union fell by 10.6 percentExports to Japan dropped 12 percentOverseas sales to to ASEAN countries dipped by nearly 2 percent.
Inflation - Explained | Economics. Currencies: How sustainable is the riyal/dollar peg? | Economics. Exchange Rates | Economics. UK planning for possible Greece exit from the eurozone. 9 February 2015Last updated at 05:48 ET The prime minister this morning chaired a meeting of senior officials to discuss the impact on the UK of possible Greek exit from the eurozone - and to take steps to ensure British banks and companies would not be excessively damaged. Attended by the head of the Treasury, Nick Macpherson, the Treasury's director of financial stability, Lowrie Kahn, and the Bank of England's international director Phil Evans, David Cameron asked for information on the impact on Greece and the rest of the eurozone of Greece leaving the eurozone. The chancellor did not attend, because he is on his way to the G20 meeting in Istanbul - though he has been kept in the loop on discussions.
There was agreement that the probability of Greece adopting a new currency had increased, as per my column of this morning. However those attending still believe that some kind of compromise between Athens and other eurozone governments can be reached to keep Greece in the euro.