Jordan: Democracy Delayed by Nicolas Pelham. In a region where politics is not only governance but popular theater, Jordan’s first parliamentary election since the eruption of the Arab Spring two years ago provided a brief moment of comic relief. In the heart of the capital, candidates erected marquees like vast Bedouin tents, and handed out coffee from Bedouin copper flasks. But for all the entertainment, King Abdullah II’s claims that Wednesday’s election would mark Jordan’s transition to democracy seemed hyperbolic.
In fact, the election was boycotted by five opposition parties, including the oldest and most powerful, the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as a raft of former prime ministers, and even according to disputed official figures less than 40 percent of the kingdom’s voters bothered to register and vote. Those who did seemed to be more interested in promoting the interests of their own clan rather than relaunching a political process. The widespread cynicism stems from the king’s half-hearted response to the Arab Awakening. Jordan’s election: Bad for the king. Identity and the Jordanian Elections - By Laurie A. Brand and Fayez Hammad. The period of Arab uprisings that began in winter 2010 to 2011 has brought myriad changes to the region.
However, one perennial constant is the willingness of official and semi-official elements in Jordan to manipulate identity issues in order to stymie meaningful reform. Indeed, given the past history of the Jordanian government, the most recent developments could be viewed as simply boring, were they not so deeply cynical and destructive.
The newest chapter in this ongoing saga of who is a Jordanian -- native East Bankers, certainly; Jordanians of Palestinian origin, not so much or perhaps not at all -- has come in response to the upcoming parliamentary elections. With only a few exceptions, most notably in 1956 and 1989, elections in Jordan have been highly controlled affairs, in which the outcomes have been largely cooked beforehand, either through changes in the electoral law (as in 1993), or through outright fraud (most notably, but certainly not exclusively, in 1997 and 2007). If change comes to Jordan, it won't start in Amman. But Dahabi is one man, and the perceived problem is widespread.
Mr. Quran believes the "thieves" have taken so much that even basic needs can't be met. "There is no hospital in Tafileh, not a government one," he says. "Five years ago they wanted to build a hospital, so they started a project in the downtown area. Subscribe Today to the Monitor Click Here for your FREE 30 DAYS ofThe Christian Science MonitorWeekly Digital Edition Even Mr. Rbeihat and other activists disagree: The regime, they say, is incapable of fixing the economy because it is dependent on a corrupt system.
Monarchy remains untouchable Criticism of the monarchy remains a "red line" that most Jordanians are not interested in crossing. In Tafileh's streets, protesters vehemently denied any implication that they stood against the regime. But several demonstrations outside the Tafileh governor's building this year ended with stone throwing and anti-regime slogans. Arab Spring a cautionary tale. Jordan Protests: Shock Absorbed, the Regime Will Not Fall. There is no doubt that the November protests in Jordan were unprecedented. They were a first in terms of mass, explicit slogans directed against the King and the Hashemite monarchy, with some demonstrations even calling for the establishment of a republic in Jordan. While this is clearly a watershed in the development of the opposition movement in Jordan, the regime has successfully been able to absorb the shock of the protests and will not fall in the foreseeable future.
In contrast to his father – the powerful and politically savvy King Hussein – Jordan's current king has proved a weak monarch. Upon taking the throne, King Abdullah II introduced his own advisors and high-ranking officials into the regime. During their time in power, King Hussein's old guard maintained extensive social connections with their tribes, ensuring that a small part of the proceeds of their corruption trickled down to tribe members in different forms such as jobs, university scholarships, and cash benefits. Why Not Jordan? | Middle East Research and Information Project. The November 13 withdrawal of fuel and electricity subsidies has sparked vigorous demonstrations in Jordan, prompting renewed speculation about whether the wave of Arab uprisings that began in late 2010 has finally arrived in the Hashemite Kingdom.
Indeed, amidst the rush of scholarly attempts to explain why uprisings did or did not occur in various Arab countries in 2011, Jordan is proving a stubborn case. Jordan fits nearly all the criteria for an uprising, but sustained protest has yet to take root. If social media and Internet access drove the revolts, then Jordan should have already had an upheaval, for it ranks well ahead of Egypt and Libya and is comparable to Tunisia in Internet penetration.
Some have argued that the building blocks of protest were increases in literacy rates and average number of years of schooling. Yet from 1980 to 2010, Jordan ranked ahead of Egypt and Tunisia in rate of increase in years of schooling (see p. 169 of Filipe R. So why no uprising in Jordan? Jordan is not about to collapse. By Nicholas Seeley * Foreign Policy If one is to believe what's in the papers, it's a bad year for Jordan. It's got a violent civil war going on in its northern neighbor, which has sent more than 100,000 refugees fleeing over the border, and constantly threatens more spillover. Internally, it's facing a massive budget crisis, and its two-year-old, Arab Spring-inspired political protest movement just won't seem to go away. In the past few months, I've read a dozen or more news articles and think tank reports that claim, with greater or lesser degrees of hysteria, that Jordan is finished.
If King Abdullah II does not bow to the will of the protesters in the streets, and implement reforms that are less cosmetic than those of the past two years, it's all over. Certainly, this week's widespread and fairly aggressive protests over fuel-price hikes are worrisome, and not a good sign for Jordan, or the regime. Jordanian Advantage #1: Bureaucracy. Jordanian Advantage #3: An Organized Opposition. The European Council on Foreign Relations | Jordan: Reform before it’s too late.
Go to the Middle East and North Africa programme's page Jordan is experiencing a slow-burning awakening. Inspired by regional revolutions and in the face of deepening political and economic malaise, King Abdullah is confronting unprecedented levels of discontent from both the traditional opposition and his longstanding support base. Despite a promise of rapid reform in early 2011 and subsequent tinkering of the legislative system, the King has nonetheless resisted meaningful change that would loosen his absolute hold on power.
In the current regional climate the absence of an orderly reform process risks widening instability. While Jordanian reform clearly has to be home-grown, Europe should take a more assertive approach. In a new ECFR policy brief senior Middle East policy fellow Julien Barnes-Dacey argues that Europe should use this leverage to press King Abdullah to introduce meaningful reform before it is too late, suggesting specific areas of immediate focus. Notes for editors: Will Jordan Be the Next To Fall? The Possibility Is Bad News for Israel and the U.S. On Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the United States was sending a small contingent of troops to Jordan in the event that the conflict in Syria spreads across the country’s border as it has with Turkey. Even if it doesn’t, the Obama Administration is right to be extremely concerned with how events in Syria might affect its longstanding and reliable Middle East ally in Amman.
Should King Abdullah II become the next Arab ruler to fall as part of the upheavals that have swept through the region now for almost two years, it will mark another major setback for the United States in the region. For Israel it’s significantly worse news. Jerusalem would lose its remaining strategic partner in the region—having already lost Turkey and Egypt—and face a possible nightmare on its longest border, exposing the country’s center to attacks from the east that might include Sunni Jihadists or Iranian-trained Iraqi agents. “We’re in a crisis mode. Like this article?
Change and Continuity Leading into Jordan’s New Elections - By Curtis R. Ryan. King Abdullah of Jordan just appointed his fifth prime minister since the start of the 2011 regional Arab Spring, and a sixth will soon be on the way. Veteran politician Abdullah an-Nsour was appointed to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fayez Tarawneh, who served for five months in the wake of the surprise resignation of pro-reform Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh (who had served for sixth months). New Prime Minister Nsour is charged with a transitional role by overseeing upcoming parliamentary elections, after which another new prime minister will emerge.
Jordan's next elections will most likely be held in December 2012 or January 2013. Jordanian prime ministers don't tend to stay in office for lengthy terms, but even by Jordanian standards, the pace of government change these past two years has been rapid. For some Jordanians, this amounts to a fairly weak and all-too-familiar tactic for the monarchy to create the semblance of change, without actually having any. Curtis R. Jordan and its king: As beleaguered as ever. Jordan Starts to Shake by Nicolas Pelham. Jordan's Balancing Act. When anti-monarchical revolution swept the Middle East in the 1950s, Jordan was one of the few populous Arab states to keep its king. King ‘Abdallah II, son of Hussein, the sole Hashemite royal to ride out the republican wave, has all the credentials to perform a similar balancing act. Aged 49, he has been in charge for a dozen years, unlike his father, who was just 17 and only a few months into his reign when the Egyptian potentate abdicated in 1952.
And the son has grown accustomed to weathering storms on the borders, whether the Palestinian intifada to the west or the US invasion of Iraq to the east. Why is it, then, that the Jordanian monarchy seems so alarmed amidst the revolution sweeping the Middle East today? Promises, Promises So far, ‘Abdallah’s response to the regional uproar has been to retreat inward. Bakhit’s first steps in office suggest a counter-reformation more than a liberalization. Initially, though, the appointment of Bakhit seems to have worked in restoring calm. Disquiet on the Jordanian Front. September has witnessed a massive—and potentially irreversible—shift in strategy among segments of Jordan’s opposition movement: a number of political activists are now openly and repeatedly calling for a limitation of the monarchy's powers—with a small (though extremely vocal) minority even explicitly calling for the abdication of King Abdullah II. In a strikingly blunt statement by the organizers of the 8 September protest in East Amman's Haya al-Tafileh neighborhood—who gathered in response to arrest of a number of fellow activists a day prior and later reorganized on September 11 and 13 at Amman’s Interior Ministry Circle and Second Circle—accusations struck at the king's carefully curated international image as a modern, democracy-building reformer.
Their Facebook statement reads, in part: "You are disguised in the costume of freedom and democracy, while hiding inside of you is absolute fascism and control over the destiny of this country and the livelihood of its people. عربي. Is Jordan about to experience its first big moment of the Arab spring? | World news. Amman, Jordan's capital, has been largely spared the drama of events elsewhere in the Arab world over the past two years. Demonstrations in March 2011 were contained and protests since have been restricted to outlying areas - albeit in loyal East Bank heartlands such as Tafila and Ma'an. Talk of reform has been accompanied by three changes of prime minister. King Abdullah's last one, Awn Khasawneh, resigned after complaints by the palace that he was not moving fast enough.
The other view is that he was getting too cosy in talks with the Islamic Action Front - the Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. So is Arab spring unrest about to hit the Hashemite kingdom? On Friday the IAF is organising a big rally under the resonant slogan "Save the Homeland. " The IAF has been emboldened by the successes of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia and by the prominent role it is playing in the uprising in Syria next door. Vers un printemps jordanien ?, par Hana Jaber. A Amman aussi, la parole se libère. Dans le quartier d’Al-Weibdeh, Nader, qui tient un boui-boui, n’est pas un restaurateur ordinaire : c’est un homme de théâtre reconnu. « Voilà où en est la culture ici : je sers du koshary [plat populaire égyptien] pour pouvoir faire du théâtre ! » L’ambiance est animée. Au menu de la conversation, Maintenant je vous ai compris, la pièce de théâtre qui parodie le discours de l’ex-président tunisien Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.
Le roi Abdallah II en personne y a assisté. « Invite-le à un koshary, tu pourras le convaincre ! « Le royaume a commencé avec Abdallah et finira avec Abdallah », se plaisaient à prophétiser les plus acharnés des réfractaires au pouvoir hachémite (1), alors que, en cet hiver 1999, ils suivaient les péripéties de l’accession au trône d’Abdallah II de Jordanie, fils du roi Hussein, après la mort de celui-ci. Il faut dire que l’histoire des relations du roi Abdallah II avec son peuple est celle d’un désamour annoncé. Jordan Going Darker. The Middle East Channel Editor's Reader #8 King Abdullah's approval this week of a controversial new law imposing potentially draconian controls over Jordan's internet is finally drawing attention to the country's increasingly dangerous political situation.
The new law's effort to stifle political expression puts at risk the Jordanian IT sector, which makes up some 14 percent of the country's GDP, produces a very significant share of youth jobs, and is one of the few bright spots in its grim economy. It's hard to see the gain in further alienating disaffected youth and crush their primary source of economic hope at a time of grinding economic problems and simmering political protests (for more background, see May's Jordan, Forever on the Brink). It's also hard to see much hope in the regime's response to its political problems. You can find more of these POMEPS Conversations here, including last week's conversation with Gregory Gause about Saudi Arabia. . - Julian Barnes-Dacey. Jordan, Forever on the Brink. The sudden, unprecedented resignation by Jordan's Prime Minister Awn Khasawnah last week threw a sudden spotlight on the ongoing shortcomings of political reform in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
The deficient new election law rolled out last month, like every step the King has taken over the last year and a half, did too little, too late to respond to the concerns of Jordanian citizens. Limited reforms have done little to stem a rising tide of protest across the towns of the south, a deeply struggling economy, loud complaints of corruption, and an intensifying edge of political anger. Add in the potential impact of the ongoing crisis in Syria or of a new escalation in the West Bank, and concerns for Jordan's political future seem merited. Veteran observers of the region can be excused for rolling their eyes ever so slightly at reports of instability in Jordan, of course. Some hopes had been placed in the appointment of the respected liberal jurist Khaswaneh as Prime Minister.