Estimates for Scenario 1. Scenario 1: Peaceful transition of power from Saleh to some successor(s). Download estimates here. Current Situation: Country-wide, peaceful, anti-government protests have been met with the repressive use of force by Yemeni security forces. This violence, especially an incident in Sana’a on March 18 when over fifty protestors were killed by snipers, resulted in mass defections from the regime, including leading tribal and military figures on March 21. President Ali Abdullah Saleh made pre-emptive political and economic concessions at the end of January and the beginning of February that met most of the protestors’ demands.
Saleh’s promise to not run for re-election in 2013 was met by skepticism from the opposition because he has announced in previous election cycles that he would not run. Currently, negotiations over a potential transition have stalled, primarily over the timing and terms of Saleh’s resignation. The estimate focuses on the following key questions: Al Houthi Movement Tribes. Waq al-Waq.
Notes by Noon - مذكرات نون. Bab al-Yemen. Yemeniabroad. Afrah Nasser.