The Future of Rare Minerals. Last September, in a post entitled The Future of Electric Cars, I discussed how manufacturers of hybrid and electric vehicles were growing increasingly concerned about predicted shortages of rare metals ["As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms," by Steve Gorman, Washington Post, 31 August 2009]. Their angst was fed by China's announcement that it was going to restrict the export of rare minerals ["China Tightens Grip on Rare Minerals," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 31 August 2009].
China insisted that the move had no sinister motives and that it was only looking out for its best interests because it too believed a shortage of rare minerals was inevitable ["China predicts rare earths shortage," by Patti Waldmeir and Peter Smith, Financial Times, 3 September 2009]. Waldmeir and Smith reported: As Waldmeir and Smith note, rare minerals are used in all sorts of products in addition to automobiles, including the ubiquitous mobile phone. Japan Recycles Rare Earth Minerals From Used Electronics. Why Investors Are Crazy For Rare-Earth Metals, And The Exporting Countries That Have The World By Its Balls. Rare Earth Embargos, Supply Problems and the overall situation and longer term view. Most of the world is dependent on China to supply rare earths as key raw materials used in many of the latest technologies from military hardware to electric cars, but China's Ministry of Commerce is warning that its massive supply of rare earths could be exhausted in just 15 - 20 years.
Although China accounts for almost all the global production of rare earth elements, its dominance is a consequence of economics and government regulation, not geology, writes Ed Crooks in Washington. Rare earth production outside China has been curbed by higher costs and concerns about pollution from mining waste. Even the scarcest rare earths, lutetium and thulium, are 200 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. China has about 57 per cent of the world’s known reserves, according to the USGS. 18 page Congressional report on Rare Earth Global Supply Chain World demand for rare earth elements is estimated at 134,000 tons per year, with global production around 124,000 tons annually. Thank You. Pentagon Loses Control of Laser Guided Bombs to China; Shades of "Avatar", Rare Earth Metals a Potential "Unobtanium"; The "Bright Side" Last Sunday in Prepare for Currency/Trade Wars; How Might China Respond to US Tariffs?
I mentioned the possibility China might shut off exports of rare earth metals used in making glass for solar panels, motors that help propel hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius, and laser guided bombs. Indeed, it was the shutoff of rare earth metals to Japan that caused Japan to "cry uncle" and release a Chinese boat captain detained by the Japanese in disputed waters.
For details, please see Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free Rare Earth Metals a Potential "Unobtanium" In light of the above, it should be no surprise to see Bloomberg report about the sudden growing concern Pentagon Losing Control of Bombs to China’s Monopoly There is much more in the article. The Bright Side Prices are soaring. Save a Bookmark on Delicious. Thomas P.M. Barnett's Globlogization - Thomas P.M. Barnett's Globlogization - China's alleged control of the rare earth materials. From John Batchelor Show FT story on how "US is scrambling to resume production of raw materials vital for defence equipment and green technology in response to rising fears about Chinese domination of the sector. " The point to be clear on: China dominates current production of rare earths (95-plus percent) but in no way has a dominant supply/reserve position.
The world has simply allowed China to achieve its dominant production position by abandoning their own mining efforts. Why? Very expensive and very environmentally damaging. Rare earths are a collection of 17 metallic elements with similar chemical make-up. No one much cared about China's domination of production, until the South China Sea dust-up with Japan led China to allegedly slow exports to Japan (not entirely clear what happen, but impressions were made).
Obviously, if the material is considered strategic, there's good logic for mining at multiple sources. Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan.