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US Recession

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http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/04/24/lakshman-achuthan-and-harm-bandholz-say-the-recession-will-probably-end-soon/ How optimistic? The recession-should-end-in-a-couple-of-months optimistic. First was Lakshman Achuthan, whose Economic Cycle Research Institute was founded by the patron saint of Leading Economic Indicators, Geoffrey Moore . ECRI—which has had an excellent record in recent years of calling economic turning points when they happen—compiles a Weekly Leading Index that has been trending upward since mid-March. Lakshman Achuthan and Harm Bandholz say the recession will proba

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recessionary outlook, Gross Domestic Income, and how economic growth doesn't really "muddle along" at sustained low rates. Bloomberg December 8, 2011 http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1399 ECRI | News | Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox

Leading Probability of a US recession http://bellone.ensae.net/recession.html This is a 'quasi real-time ' model which detected the post-war US recessions with an average (resp. median) real-time lead of 9 (resp. 7) months. The leading recession index is based upon US non-financial time series, non subject to significant revisions. The model is built on a markov-switching detection principle ''à la Hamilton''. Estimates are produced with MSVARLIB on a monthly sample starting in february 1960.

http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/02/bello-asia-coming-fury.html Asia: The Coming Fury Vietnam, not long ago, was hailed as the next stop for the expanding export platform, the next "China." Barely on the stage, Vietnam finds the theater rapidly emptying. Too much of a good thing is indeed too much. One side of the world cannot export and the other side consume. It is not a matter of exhorting Americans to save and Chinamen to spend.

Econbrowser: Forecasted GDP in the New Year http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/01/forecasted_gdp.html « The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2 | Main | December auto sales » January 04, 2009 Forecasted GDP in the New Year The description of the consensus that growth will resume around mid-year -- while accurate -- does not convey much information about what is the consensus regarding the depth of the recession. Nor does it convey the degree of disagreement regarding the timing and strength of the recovery. To provide some isnight , here is the mean forecast for GDP into the new year, according to the WSJ's December survey .

Personally, I think the recession will last until US consumers have repaired their personal balance sheets, and refilled their savings accounts. I think we have a ways to go. Posted by: Fat Man at January 11, 2009 12:54 PM http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/01/signs_of_a_thaw.html Econbrowser: Signs of a thaw

Note: it is also common in a recession for apartment vacancies to rise as households double up by moving in with a friends or family members. Although there are several factors increasing the supply, I believe the surge in REO sales to cash flow investors is having a significant impact on rents. Many of those vacant homeowner units are being converted to rental properties - although this isn't showing up in the Census Bureau data yet (something to watch for). Calculated Risk: The Residential Rental Market http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/residential-rental-market.html

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/roubini-two-year-recession.html From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, ... For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. Calculated Risk: Roubini: Two Year Recession

Nouriel Roubini is called Doctor Doom as a major "doomsayer" . He foresaw most of the key elements of the crisis. Yet, he was wrong in his scenario, expecting the dollar to tumble and long dated yields to blow up. Rather the contrary... So lucky Doctor Doom . by benobi Mar 1

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2570 The major lesson from the Great Depression of the 1930s was that terrible policies managed to turn a financial crisis into a disaster. The infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was introduced by US policymakers to block imports in a desperate attempt to protect domestic jobs. But it helped worsen the recession by freezing world trade. 2009 will be the nightmare on Main Street | vox - Research-based

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/january-economic-summary-in-graphs.html This shows that sales have plunged to just over a 10 million annual rate - the lowest rate since the early '80s recession. From: Vehicle Sales NAHB Builder Confidence Index in January This graph shows monthly vehicle sales (autos and trucks) as reported by the BEA at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR). This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Calculated Risk: January Economic Summary in Graphs

Calculated Risk: Christina Romer Explains Stimulus Plan http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/christina-romer-explains-stimulus-plan.html Christina Romer, the Chair-designate for the Council of Economic Advisers talks about the stimulus plan ... by CalculatedRisk on 1/11/2009 10:44:00 AM

The second error is the failure to recognise that our models (formal or implicit) of how the economy works are inevitably incomplete. Parts of the transmission mechanism – positive or negative feedbacks and other causal links between actions today, future outcomes and anticipations today of future outcomes and future actions – that can safely be ignored when we consider the impact of a policy over a year or two can come back to haunt us with a vengeance over a three-year or longer horizon. The third error is that, when economic agents, households, firms, portfolio managers and asset market prices are even in part forward-looking, the long run is now . More precisely, the long-run consequences of current policies can, through private sector expectations and through forward-looking asset prices influence consumption behaviour, employment and investment decisions and asset prices today. http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/01/can-the-us-economy-afford-a-keynesian-stimulus/ FT.com | Willem Buiter’s Maverecon | Can the US economy afford a

Krugman ) are warning that a dire recession is in the offing. We would have agreed with them three months ago; indeed, we wrote a VoxEU column predicting a severe recession in 2009; based on the analysis of 16 previous economic shocks, we forecasted a 3% drop in GDP and a 3 million increase in unemployment in each of Europe and the US with these predictions made from VAR forecasts (see Bloom 2008 for details). We also worried about a far worse outcome – Europe and the US slipping into another Great Depression due to damaging policy responses. Luckily, using the latest data on uncertainty measures, our model predicts that the worst has been avoided. Good news at last? The recession will be over sooner than you th http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2785

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2795 Deflation previously captured significant attention during the last global recession. The 2003 deflation scare resulted from the belief that the negative output gap would push already-low rates of US (core) inflation into negative territory. This year, the Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune , and The Times mentioned the term deflation 50 times in the first 20 days of November, by the Economist ’s count . Europe does not face deflation danger | vox - Research-based pol

TheMoneyIllusion » “There’s every risk of an overshoot” - Mozill During the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s there was a lot of concern about inflation gaining momentum, and then being hard to stop. Once inflation expectations start to rise, wage increases accelerate, and the core inflation rate also rises. At this point it is hard to put the genie back in the bottle. Reducing inflation once expectations have risen; runs into the well-known Phillips Curve problem. http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=940

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ECRI | News | Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox

ECRI | News | Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox

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tks PED ça a lair très intéressant je regarde ça très bientot by gersey Jul 17

A folllow up of the 2008-2009 recession by Benobi a financial economist and a "global macro" strategist. Let 's share your views. by benobi Mar 1

This recession is expected to be long and protracted. It started in December 2007 and might end at best by the third quarter of 2009, with mounting risks of a delayed recovery to 2010. While most of the sources of this recession is to be linked to the Credit crunch, I share Jim Hamilton's view: it was the Oil shock ! by benobi Mar 1