Lakshman Achuthan and Harm Bandholz say the recession will proba. Two of my favorite somewhat-off-the-beaten-track economic forecasters just came out with strikingly optimistic pronouncements this morning.
How optimistic? The recession-should-end-in-a-couple-of-months optimistic. Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox. Leading Probability of a US recession. This leading probability index of US recessions has been developed in 2005, concluding a two year research on leading indicators, the US business cycle and links with financial markets.
This is a 'quasi real-time ' model which detected the post-war US recessions with an average (resp. median) real-time lead of 9 (resp. 7) months. The leading recession index is based upon US non-financial time series, non subject to significant revisions. The model is built on a markov-switching detection principle ''à la Hamilton''. Estimates are produced with MSVARLIB on a monthly sample starting in february 1960.
Asia: The Coming Fury. Forecasted GDP in the New Year. The description of the consensus that growth will resume around mid-year — while accurate — does not convey much information about what is the consensus regarding the depth of the recession. Nor does it convey the degree of disagreement regarding the timing and strength of the recovery. To provide some insight , here is the mean forecast for GDP into the new year, according to the WSJ’s December survey. Signs of a thaw. Yes, I saw the discouraging headlines.
But I also see signs of hope in last week’s economic news. Let me begin by acknowledging the awful employment news. This was undeniably grim, though popular descriptions that BLS had reported the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945 are perhaps unnecessarily alarmist. The Residential Rental Market. By Bill McBride on 1/09/2009 02:47:00 PM Yesterday I linked to an article in the Los Angeles Times about declining residential rents: Housing downturn hits L.A.
-area rents There are several different factors impacting rental supply and demand - and therefore rents - for residential properties. Roubini: Two Year Recession. By Bill McBride on 1/08/2009 04:30:00 PM From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, ...
For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. 2009 will be the nightmare on Main Street. Every economist is predicting a macabre 2009, but no one knows for sure how bad things will get or who will survive.
This column, by comparing the current crisis to uncertainty shocks of the last 40 years, predicts GDP growth could be reduced by as much as 4.5%. But, if politicians protect free markets, growth should be back in 2010. Every horror movie fan knows the scene before the attack. Creepy electronic music plays. The victim is shown from behind. January Economic Summary in Graphs. Here is a collection of 20 real estate and economic graphs from January ...
New Home Sales in December Click on graph for larger image in new window. The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted). Notice the Red columns for 2008. This is the lowest sales for December since 1966. Christina Romer Explains Stimulus Plan. Willem Buiter’s Maverecon. Economic policy is based on a collection of half-truths.
The nature of these half-truths changes occasionally. Economics as a scholarly discipline consists in the periodic rediscovery and refinement of old half-truths. Little progress has been made in the past century or so towards understanding how economic policy, rules, legislation and regulation influence economic fluctuations, financial stability, growth, poverty or inequality. We know that a few extreme approaches that have been tried yield lousy results – central planning, self-regulating financial markets – but we don’t know much that is constructive beyond that. The main uses of economics as a scholarly discipline are therefore negative or destructive – pointing out that certain things don’t make sense and won’t deliver the promised results.
Good news at last? The recession will be over sooner than you th. A key source of the today’s economic weakness is uncertainty that led firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions.
This column, by the authors whose model forecast the recession as far back as June 2008, report that the key measures of uncertainty have dropped so rapidly that they believe growth will resume by mid-2009. This means any additional economic stimulus has to be enacted quickly. Delaying to the summer may mean the economic medicine is administered just as the patient is leave the hospital. Europe does not face deflation danger. Assessments of European price stability risks outright reversed in recent months.1 Until summer 2008, monetary policy was concerned with inflation pressures from surging commodity and energy prices.
Last month, facing possible recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points. Falling commodity prices and weak demand have eased inflation. All major economic organisations found forecasting growth and inflation difficult and uncertain in 2008. “There’s every risk of an overshoot” - Mozill. Because of the bloated monetary base there has been much concern recently about the supposed risk of future inflation. There are at least four important misconceptions associated with this issue, and I’ll try to address all four in this post.
The first misconception is that it will be difficult to pull the excess reserves back out of circulation after the economy recovers and interest rates rise to a more normal level. As Hall recently pointed out, if we continue to pay interest on reserves it would not be necessary to pull those reserves out of circulation in the future, just pay enough interest for banks to want to continue holding them. But for the moment let’s assume that’s not feasible. Banerji: The End of the Recession.
This post appeared yesterday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day. The end of this recession -- the most severe downturn since World War II -- is finally in sight. This is the clear message from Economic Cycle Research Institute's array of leading indices of the U.S. economy. What are these indicators? One is the ECRI's U.S. Media Coverage. Unnamed. Last Tuesday, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, predicted that 2010 “will be a year of recovery.”
On Friday, Americans learned that the gross domestic product fell 6.2 percent in the last quarter of 2008, suggesting that the recession may be deeper than anticipated. So when, exactly, will the misery end? Employment Declines Sharply, Unemployment Rises. By Bill McBride on 1/09/2009 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Over 8 Million Part Time Workers. Boeing to Cut 4,500 Jobs. Q4 Preliminary Release and Re-thinking That "Massiv. February Economic Summary in Graphs. Another Look at the Collapse of. A New Depression? The Lessons of the 1930s. Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox.
Media Coverage - Mozilla Firefox. Roubini: End of Gloom? Media Coverage. Philly Fed: Manufacturing "contracted less seve. This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener. Further progress for initial claims for unemploymen. Are We Turning Japanese?: The Balance Sheet: Online Only: The Ne. Will the credit crunch lead to recession?
Krugman Worries about L-Shaped Recession - Mozi.