Invisible Armies Insurgency Tracker. A Visual History of Guerrilla Warfare From 1775 to 2012 The Invisible Armies Insurgency Tracker draws on existing databases of insurgencies, but it is designed to be more wide-ranging, more detailed, and more accurate than any previous compendium. Outcomes are categorized as an insurgent victory, a draw, a victory for the regulars, or ongoing. It is considered a victory for the regulars even if the incumbent makes some political concessions and even if the insurgent group is not completely destroyed militarily. For example the British defeated the Provisional IRA in 1998 even though the Good Friday Accord gave the republicans representation in government. The IRA did not, however, achieve its goal of unification with Ireland. It is a draw when there is no clear-cut winner and the conflict ends in a negotiation in which both sides make significant concessions.
Many databases include only conflicts that pass a certain threshold, such as inflicting over one thousand battle deaths. GlobalSecurity.org - Reliable Security Information. IHEDN | Institut des hautes études de défense nationale. Centre d'analyse stratégique. Project on Defense Alternatives - Home | Centre for Military and Strategic Studies. SSI Publications - Military Strategy, National Security, and Regional Security.