The End of Management. Triumph of the Golden Rule. We live in a world with other people. Almost every decision we make involves someone else in one way or another, and we face a constant choice regarding just how much we’re going to trust the person on the other side of this decision. Should we take advantage of them, go for the quick score and hope we never see them again – or should we settle for a more reasonable reward, co-operating in the hope that this peaceful relationship will continue long into the future? We see decisions of this type everywhere, but what is less obvious is the best strategy for us to use to determine how we should act. The Golden Rule states that one should “do unto others as you would have them do unto you”. While it seems rather naive at first glance, if we run the numbers, we find something quite amazing. A Dilemma In order to study these types of decisions, we have to define what exactly we’re talking about.
{*style:<b> Alice cooperates </b>*} Alice defects Everyone wins! Poor Bob. Poor Alice. Time to Think. Histoire de l’IE (1/8): Sun Tzu. Mercredi 8 octobre 2008 3 08 /10 /Oct /2008 23:04 Jean-Pierre Bernat est intervenu le 23 septembre au Club IES pour une conférence sur l’historique de l’IE. Il nous a laissé la liberté d’utiliser son texte. Compte tenu de sa taille et de sa densité, je vais le poster en 8 parties : Histoire de l’IE (1/8): Sun Tzu Histoire de l’IE (2/8): Attila et la ligue hanséatique Histoire de l’IE (3/8): Le Japon et Venise Histoire de l’IE (4/8): De Richelieu à Bonaparte Histoire de l’IE (5/8): L'Angleterre victorienne Histoire de l’IE (6/8): Mao et la stratégie chinoise Histoire de l’IE (7/8): La guerre de l'info Histoire de l’IE (8/8): L'hyper connectivité Bonne lecture Jérôme Bondu Petite histoire de l’intelligence économique - Evolution de la stratégie au fil du temps – 1er partie Par Jean-Pierre Bernat Chargé de mission « veille stratégique » Délégation à la Valorisation de la Recherche CIRAD - Montpellier On y voit les prémices de l'analyse des signaux précoces d'alerte.
Jean-Pierre Bernat.
Concept Modeling. The future: Expect the unexpected. Shifting From Strategic Planning to Strategic Agility. Remapping your strategic mind-set - McKinsey Quarterly - Strategy - Globalization. Senior executives need better mental maps to navigate our unevenly globalized world. Although a wide variety of metrics show that just 10 to 25 percent of economic activity is truly global, executives disproportionately embrace visions of unbounded opportunities in a borderless world, where distances and differences no longer matter. In several articles and books, I’ve tried to describe the true nature of globalization and suggest ways for executives to structure their thinking about distance and difference effects (see sidebar, “Understanding the world and measuring distance”).
Here, I want to focus on the potential for a special kind of map—one I call a “rooted map”—to help leaders enhance their intuition about the opportunities and threats inherent in our semiglobalized world. Rooted maps correct a misperception reinforced by conventional ones: that the world looks the same regardless of the viewer’s vantage point or purpose. Using rooted maps to understand opportunities Exhibit 1. Strategy under uncertainty - McKinsey Quarterly - Strategy - Strategic Thinking. At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that executives, by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, can predict the future of any business accurately enough to choose a clear strategic direction for it.
The process often involves underestimating uncertainty in order to lay out a vision of future events sufficiently precise to be captured in a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis. When the future is truly uncertain, this approach is at best marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous: underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that neither defend a company against the threats nor take advantage of the opportunities that higher levels of uncertainty provide. Another danger lies at the other extreme: if managers can't find a strategy that works under traditional analysis, they may abandon the analytical rigor of their planning process altogether and base their decisions on gut instinct. Four levels of uncertainty Level four: True ambiguity. How to Create a Company Philosophy. Any company can sell Product X or provide Service Y, but what differentiates you from everyone else in your field is your company philosophy.
A company's philosophy is a distillation of its culture or ambience into a group of core values that inform all aspects of its business practices. Having a strong company philosophy is a good way to guide your employees at decision-making crossroads, but it can also be a strong branding tool, and generally make your workplace more congenial. For example, Tony Hsieh, Zappos' CEO and a respected culture crafter, sometimes tells the story of a customer service representative who got a call from a woman whose husband had died in a car accident after she had ordered boots for him from Zappos.
The day after the call, the widow received flowers that the rep had sent her on the company's dime without consulting a supervisor. How to Create a Company Philosophy: Keep it in Context Dig Deeper: How Howard Schultz Put Starbucks' Derailed Culture Back on Track. Strategic decisions, when can you trust your gut? - McKinsey Quarterly - Strategy - Strategic Thinking. For two scholars representing opposing schools of thought, Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein find a surprising amount of common ground. Kahneman, a psychologist, won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for prospect theory, which helps explain the sometimes counterintuitive choices people make under uncertainty.
Klein, a senior scientist at MacroCognition, has focused on the power of intuition to support good decision making in high-pressure environments, such as firefighting and intensive-care units. In a September 2009 American Psychology article titled “Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree,” Kahneman and Klein debated the circumstances in which intuition would yield good decision making. In this interview with Olivier Sibony, a director in McKinsey’s Brussels office, and Dan Lovallo, a professor at the University of Sydney and an adviser to McKinsey, Kahneman and Klein explore the power and perils of intuition for senior executives.
Gary Klein: We identified two. Theory of Change. I am increasingly convinced that the difference between effective and ineffective people is their skill at developing a theory of change. Theory of change is a funny phrase — I first heard it in the nonprofit community, but it’s also widespread in politics and really applies to just about everything.
Unfortunately, very few people seem to be very good at it. Let’s take a concrete example. Imagine you want to decrease the size of the defense budget. The typical way you might approach this is to look around at the things you know how to do and do them on the issue of decreasing the defense budget. So, if you have a blog, you might write a blog post about why the defense budget should be decreased and tell your friends about it on Facebook and Twitter. If you’re a professional writer, you might write a book on the subject. A theory of change is the opposite of a theory of action — it works backwards from the goal, in concrete steps, to figure out what you can do to achieve it. Why not?